This is peak season for player trades and free agent signings.  Expect to see the biggest free agent names to sign, and a flurry of franchise-changing trades. Here's some things to watch for in the American League.

1. Kansas City Royals Flip Offensive Firepower for Win-Now Pitcher 

Royals’ general manager Dayton Moore has abided by “the process” for six seasons now, dutifully building a minor league system flush with prospects. Problem being, his budding pitchers have consistently flamed out while their hitters have reached the Major League Baseball roster.

Moore’s entering his seventh season as general manager and has yet to bring his team above the .500 mark. Such futility rarely leads to sustained stays for decision makers. His hitters are reaching arbitration eligibility, which will push the small-market Royals into uncharted payroll territory. There is clear pressure for Moore to win now in a weak AL Central.

Moore has already added to pitchers, trading for former Los Angeles Angels' starter Ervin Santana and re-signing free agent Jeremy Guthrie. The two will combine for $18M in 2013 salary; there’s little point in taking on this significant 2013 salary commitment if it’s not done in combination with acquiring a true No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher. There’s been rumors of Moore floating big trades, flipping top hitting prospect Will Myer for Boston's Jon Lester or the Mets RA Dickey. Moore has some attractive hitters in Myers, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon. I expect him to go all-in and trade one of the above for a top-flight pitcher such as Cliff Lee or RA Dickey.  In either case, the Royals would add a short-term financial commitment (three years for Lee, one year for Dickey), while providing their counterpart a hitter, youth, and financial flexibility.

2. Texas Rangers Overhaul Roster Through Trades 

Texas Rangers advanced to the 2010 and 2011 World Series, both times as favorites to win.  They lost both, and then "upgraded" with Yu Darvish for 2012.  They owned the best record for much of the 2012 season, finished with the best offense, and yet missed the playoffs.  These are not the results president Nolan Ryan and general manager Jon Daniels anticipated when they signed their TV-megadeal.

The Rangers have all the components of a 90-plus win team destined to make serious changes to their roster.  Their star outfielder, Josh Hamilton is a free agent, and the front office has shown hot and cold flashes in retaining their befuddled problem child (in short, they won’t go beyond the three-to-four year parameters they’ve set for a deal with Hamilton).

They’ve got turnover at other key positions, namely catcher and the bullpen; a gaping offensive hole at 1B; repeated attempts at beefing up the pitching staff have failed; and a minor league system brimming with top prospects (namely Jurisckson Profar and Mike Olt) blocked at key positions. Most importantly, they’re a team that has not delivered on expectations in multiple seasons. The Rangers are built as a modern dynasty, but have not delivered on their promise, so expect the results driven Ryan and Daniels tandem to act.

There’s a lot of moving parts that could change the face of the Rangers lineup or rotation.  Outside of Zack Greinke, there’s not a lot of players on the free agent market that seem to fit the Rangers’ needs.  I’d anticipate one or two large trades, expecting them to deal one of their short shops (Elvis Andrus, Profar), one of their pitchers (Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland) and minor league depth to land a premier outfielder (Justin Upton) and a pitching ace (RA Dickey or Jamie Shields) to sit alongside Darvish. I don’t see them re-upping with Hamilton – it’d be too easy to fill the outfield with another free agent on shorter/lesser terms or move Ian Kinsler to centerfield.

3. Zack Greinke Hauls the Largest Contract for a Pitcher in History. 

What do you get, when you add:

• A weak free agent market, highlighted by just one pitcher who’s managed three 5+ WAR seasons,
• Multiple teams desperate to improve its starting rotation, and
• Proceeds of a new MLB TV contract, adding roughly $35M/annually to each franchise?

The perfect storm for an overpay.

Look, I like Zack Greinke.  He’s smart, he’s adventurous enough to try negotiations sans agent, and he’s a very good starting pitcher. But Greinke’s no longer the ace that won the AL Cy Young in 2009 (check those numbers…he managed to compile a 9.3 WAR with the lowly Royals). In 2012, he threw half as many fastballs as he did in 2009 and his velocity is down 1-2 MPH (to 91.5 MPH). He’s clearly settled into a peak-value territory, annually delivering 4-5 WAR from 2010 to 2012. He’s 29 years old, so any team that signs him to a five or six year contract will likely not receive any further improvement. They’ll receive a reliable #1 or #2 starter, producing 4-5 WAR that will decline as the contract reaches year three or four.

With a dearth of ace-quality pitcher options on the free agent market, teams sated with the roughly $35M annual revenue from the new MLB TV will surely try to splash it on Greinke.  He’s set himself up for a massive payday; the best comparable for his upcoming contract is Cole Hamel’s recent six year, $144M contract. Translated, that’s $24M for Hamels – and he did not even reach free agency.

With two competitive, win-now teams bidding against each other in Southern California, expect Geinke to blow those figures away. Teams don’t seem to break the $25M/annual salary threshold anymore, so I’d expect Greinke to opt for contract length and receive in the neighborhood of $170M over seven years.