Super Bowl XLVII: What Drives the NFL, Early Lines and Vegas

By Matt Mills on January 26, 2013

It's no secret to anyone who lives in Vegas that there is one sport that reigns supreme above all the others when it comes to hitting the sportsbooks: the National Football League.  This season has been no different.  As someone who watched football at the Palms sportsbook just about every Sunday this season, I can attest to that first hand.

Not only was there always an NFL game on the main screen, no matter who the teams were playing and no matter what other sporting event may have been on, there was always fans in standing room only areas to watch the games.  On Sunday mornings, if you weren't there by at least 8:30 AM, you weren't getting a seat.

The reason that people flock to sportsbooks for NFL games is simple; most people think they know a lot about the NFL.  However, that is far from reality.  I can't tell you how many times someone has asked me if there's a sure-fire way to make money betting on NFL games.  NO, there is not.  I can't emphasize that enough.  Friends will ask me how I typically do very well, and I tell them all the same thing--do the research, find the trends, hope you're a little bit lucky and when all else fails--bet against the public.

The San Francisco 49ers are three and a half point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII.  The line opened at SF -4, and for maybe a minute or two, climbed as high as SF -4.5 before finally settling at SF -3.5, which is where it has been at for the past couple of days.

The amount of money bet on this Super Bowl will almost certainly surpass the amount of money bet on last year's Super Bowl, just like it surpasses the previous Super Bowl just about every year.  There's no doubt that I will be among the millions of people betting on this game.  Give me Baltimore +3.5.