Just two weeks left in the regular season and the Big Ten is starting to take shape. A given to land in the Big Ten title game, Ohio State has won a nation best 22 straight games and still has their eyes on the BCS championship bid. Meanwhile a red hot Spartans team controls its own destiny, if they can win their final two games they will meet the Buckeyes for the B1G trophy. Waiting for the slightest slip up, the Badgers are waiting in the wings ready to pounce on and leap frog Michigan State if they can't seal the deal.
Funny, in a conference that is known for becoming weak and soft over the past decade, they could have very realistically had three teams ranked in the top ten of the polls. That's right, say the Badgers don't get screwed in week two against Arizona State, they would own a 9-1 record and the way they've been playing would surely be one of the best ten teams. The Spartans on the other hand only have one loss and that was to Notre Dame back in week four. A game that was ultimately decided by a penalty in the closing minutes where they lost by a score of 17-13. Pick that flag up and were talking about a team that is still undefeated and ranked in the top ten as well; things to ponder as we enter the most crucial time of the season.
Michigan State at Northwestern
The 13th ranked team in the nation possessing the number one ranked defense in the country heads to Wildcat country where Northwestern has lost six straight games.
Game. Set. Match. Right? Not so fast my friends. This game smells like a good old fashion booby trap. Northwestern may still be searching for its first Big Ten win of the season as we enter week 13, but they are a much better team than their record shows.
Remember this team came into the season ranked 16th in the country. A series of bad luck, blown calls, and an inability to close tight games have sent the Wildcats spiraling.
Dig deeper and you'll see that Northwestern has lost because of it's own tune of mistakes, not so much the opposing teams talent. They've lost twice in overtime, (once on a hail mary) and have lost two games during the final drives against Minnesota and Ohio State. Still think their as bad as their record indicates? I don't.
They will be scratching and clawing for their first conference win Saturday and will do whatever it takes to come out with a victory. The Spartans who beat Nebraska last week didn't really wow anybody with their play. Nebraska coughed up the ball five times to Michigan State because of mental errors not a because of the Spartans dominating defense. No doubt Michigan State will be favored and by accounts should win. But, the difference between the 13th ranked team in the nation and a team that has yet to win a Big Ten game is much closer than you might think.
Vegas Line: Michigan State -7.5
Michigan at Iowa
The Wolverines were the latest team to receive an early Christmas present from the Wildcats last week as they forced overtime as the clock expired where they eventually went on to win in triple overtime. However, even with a 7-3 record Michigan is playing its worst football of the season.
Sloppy offense lead by Devin Gardner who has lost his once Heisman luster as well as a defense that doesn't strike the fear into opposing quarterbacks like it used to.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a week of rest and will be more than fresh to get back to their physical style of play.
A bruising rushing attack and a smart leader in quarterback Jake Ruddock will make sure the offense doesn't turn the ball over by playing smart conservative football.
While a dominating front seven should give Gardner plenty of fits as he has looked atrocious in his last two games. Gardner will have to expose Iowa's weak secondary if Michigan wants a shot to win.
Hooking up with his stud receiver Jeremy Gallon should be his game plan early and often in this game. If not the Wolverines woes will continue and Iowa should be able to beat up on them on both sides of the trenches.
Vegas Line: Iowa -6.5
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Both teams head into Saturday 8-2 as the border battle for the axe takes place at TCF Bank Stadium in Minnesota. Both teams are ranked in the top 25 as the Badgers are 19th in the country while the Gophers squeezed in at 25 after their latest win against Penn State before their week of rest.
Riding high on a four game win streak its imperative that coach Jerry Kill reminds his players they will face their toughest test of the season Saturday as Wisconsin is the better football team up and down the rosters. Their biggest challenge will likely come on defense trying to find a way to stop (or at least slow down) a Badgers team that runs like there's hot coals on the ground. Sixth in the nation, averaging 307.9 yards per game on the ground led by the two headed monster of Melvin Gordon and James White.
The Gophers will have to stack the box against the run and force Joel Stave to beat them through the air, if not then Minnesota can just hand the axe over now and save themselves the embarrassment because the Gophers offense doesn't have the firepower to win high scoring games. Their quarterback Philip Nelson has been highly effective on the ground and through the air during their four game win streak but needs to play a ball control style of game to limit the number of offensive snaps for the Badgers while keeping his defense fresh.
He will need his running back David Cobb to stay hot as he has ran for over 100 yards in his past four games. Things won't be easy for him however, as All-American linebacker Chris Borland is coming off one of his best games of the season and is the heart and soul of the Badger defense. This is one of the best rivalries in football and I expect it to be a hard fought game by both. In the end however, Wisconsin is the more talented team and it will show. Their running game will be too much for the Gophers for all four quarters as their winning streak gets snapped and the Badgers stay alive for a chance to play in the Big Ten title game.
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -15
Nebraska at Penn State
One of these teams is under-performing while the other is over-achieving.
Bo Pelini and the Cornhuskers had big expectations this year but were officially knocked out of the Big Ten trophy race Saturday against Michigan State.
Their lone bright spot has been running back Ameer Abdullah who continues to look like one of the best tailbacks in the country and will be used heavily in their upcoming game against Penn State.
The Nittnay Lions will also continue to rely on their running game after Zach Zwinak bulldozed his way for 149 yards and three scores in their last game against the Boilmakers. An effective running game has been a necessity for Penn State as their quarterback Christian Hackenberg thrives off the play-action game. Nebraksa's defense will be a much tougher test than Purdue's was last week for both Zwinak and Hackenberg as they will be feel much more pressure for all four quarters.
The Cornhuskers put up a valiant effort against the nations number one defense last week considering they turned the ball over a ridiculous five times throughout the game. Assuming that doesn't happen again, this game will be tight one until the very end. As far as talent goes Nebraska has the edge, both offensively and defensively. However, their mental mistakes as of late is too much to ignore playing on the road in front of a crowd like Penn State's.
Vegas Line: Penn State -2
Indiana At Ohio State
If Hoosiers fans thought last weeks 51-3 loss to Wisconsin was bad, honey you ain't seen nothing yet. The Badgers ran all over Indiana in week 12 and now get to try and tackle Carlos Hyde who scored five touchdowns in their win against Illinois as they try and snap the Buckeyes 22 game winning streak. Ohio State is known for getting off to fast starts scoring a nation best 192 points in the first quarter this year.
Indiana will realistically have to rely on their passing game to have a fighting chance in this one and could have success through the air. The Buckeyes pass defense isn't anything that scares opposing quarterbacks thus far which plays into the Hoosiers strengths on offense as they averaged 307 yards passing a game, which ranks 17th best in the country. In the end Ohio State's talent will outshine Indiana as their winning streak will extend to 23 games. No doubt the Hoosiers will be able to put up points and keep this game closer than most would think, however not close enough to keep the Buckeyes second stringers hitting the field sometime during the second half.
Vegas Line: Ohio State -32
Illinois at Purdue
The worst two teams in the Big Ten square off Saturday as the 3-7 Fighting Illini take on the 1-9 Boilmakers. As much as Illinois has struggled as of late their is still plenty of fight left in them.
Winning just one game all of last season they have improved in many areas including the offensive side of the ball where Nathan Scheelhaase has shown glimpses of playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. They will rely on his arm and feet Saturday as they try and snap their 20-game road losing streak.
Purdue has plenty of streaks they'd like to snap this week as well as they search for their first conference win of the season. It's been a long season for first year head coach Darrel Hazzel who at this point is just trying to get his team to improve every week.
While his defense and running game have a search and rescue team looking for them his passing game has improved as of late. Danny Eting helped his team to the end zone three times as they scored 21 points against Penn State. Etinging threw for 223 yards last week and has a prime opportunity to continue to progress this week against an Illinois defense that gives up nearly 38 points per game.
Vegas Line: Illinois -7
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