Arkansas State vs. Ball State
January 5, 2014, 9:30 PM EST
Ladd Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Arkansas State Season Review
When Gus Malzahn jumped ship after just one year with the Red Wolves’, there was certainly good reason to have concerns entering the 2013 season. The team was coming off a 10-win season and rest their hopes in the hands of Bryan Harsin. While Arkansas State may have fell short of 10 wins, the team still performed and did enough to clinch a trip to the GoDaddy Bowl.
The team prided themselves on running the football and it’s something they excelled at, ranking 24th in the country averaging 206 yards per game. The ground attack was ran with a balanced attack of running backs David Oku who finished the year with 141 carries for 511 yards and six touchdowns and sophomore Michael Gordon who was third in carries with just 106, but led the team in rushing yards (717) and touchdowns (10). But the Red Wolves’ also rely on quarterback Adam Kennedy who leads the team with 147 carries with 514 yards and four touchdowns. While the Red Wolves’ don’t throw it frequently, Kennedy still passed for over 2,300 yards last year on just 215 completions.
The Red Wolves’ defense is certainly nothing to brag about, ranking 65th in the country allowing nearly 27 points per game. Their defense has stepped up at times in wins against Army that they won 40-14, Western Michigan in a 38-17 victory and against Miami of Ohio giving up just 14 points. But consistency has been an issue for them all season and they just don’t have the passing attack to get into high-scoring battles. But the team will be tested for the third straight year, as their head coach left another job at the end of the regular season. Even if they can’t win, Arkansas State might just be happy having the same coach for two years in a row.
Ball State Season Review
The Cardinals continue to make progress under coach Pete Lembo, after starting with six wins in 2011, Ball State won nine games in 2012 and reached double digits this year. It marked the first time since 2008 that the team had reached double digit wins, and they were more than happy after a 10-2 season
Ball State’s offense continued to make strides over the years and nobody more so than senior quarterback Keith Wenning. After throwing for his first 3,000 yard season in 2013, Wenning saw his numbers jump up even more this year setting career-highs with 3,933 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. The Cardinals’ lived through the air, finishing ninth in the country with an average of 333.3 yards per game. Wenning’s favorite target is clearly junior wide receiver Willie Snead who dominated this year with 97 receptions for 1,429 yards and 14 touchdowns. Snead’s breakthrough season helped him finish fourth in the country in receiving yards and fifth in touchdowns. Fellow sophomore Jordan Williams also excelled with 68 receptions for 1,016 yards and 12 touchdowns. When the Cardinals run the football they put it in the hands of junior Jahwan Edwards who has 964 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. Ball State’s offense can put up numbers with the best and is why they are averaging over 40 points per game this season.
The high-scoring at times helps make up for their defense which ranks in the middle of the pack allowing 24.8 points per game. While the defense may give up plenty of points they do force turnovers, ranking seventh in the country with 30 this season. Where the defense will need to improve is stopping the opponent’s offense on third down, where they rank 65th in the country allowing nearly 40 percent of third down conversions.
Game Matchup
Keith Wenning vs. Red Wolves’ Secondary
This game could turn into a shootout and if it does, the Red Wolves will need to find a way to get pressure on Wenning and really play tight coverage. Wenning should have time to throw behind an offensive line that has allowed just 14 sacks this year. With that time he will look to attack an Arkansas State secondary that has allowed 19 passing touchdowns this year and an average of 234 passing yards per game.
The Red Wolves’ will have to focus on taking away Snead who has torched opponents all year long. This game will come down to how they game plan against Snead and if they can take him away from the passing game. If Snead is shutdown it will take away a big option in the Cardinals’ passing game and help make Wenning feel uncomfortable, but if Snead gets free and Wenning finds him, Arkansas State can say goodnight to their chances at a win.
Red Wolves’ Running Game vs. Cardinals’ Front Seven
While the Cardinals like to attack with the passing attack, the Red Wolves’ rely on the running game to chew up the clock and keep the opponent’s offense off the field. The Red Wolves’ use a mixed attack of Gordon, Oku and Kennedy to keep the defense off balance. Kennedy actually leads the team in carries with 147 carries, while Oku is second on the team with 141. But when the team needs a touchdown they call on Gordon and chances are he is going to deliver.
Stopping the run is something the Cardinals have struggled with this year, ranking 91st in the country allowing 194.8 yards per game and 21 touchdowns. You can bet the Red Wolves’ will look to take over this game early by running the football and making the Cardinals’ defense tired. It will be difficult for Ball State to plan against three legit running threats, but the pressure will really be on their front seven to play smart and stay alert. If Arkansas State can keep the running game rolling and wind down the clock, it will keep Wenning on the sidelines and give the Red Wolves’ a great chance to win.
Prediction: Ball State 38 Arkansas State 27
Draft Impact
Keith Wenning: Wenning won’t have his name of the top-10 at his position in any NFL Draft circles but he certainly will be a guy scouts have their eye on come Sunday as a potential seventh-round selection or undrafted free agent signing. Wenning had a fantastic year in 2013 and even in the MAC, there is still enough to take note about. He posted back-to-back 3,000+ yards and cut down on his interceptions to single digits. Wenning should get plenty of looks in this game with a chance to prove he is worthy of a Day-3 draft pick.
Ryan Carrethers: Everyone loves to have some muscle on their defensive line and you will find exactly that with Carrethers. The senior defensive tackle weighs in at 330 pounds and the Tennessee Volunteers felt all of that weight earlier in the year, as he finished the day with 16 total tackles. Carrethers offers a lot of potential with his size and power but is still a work in progress with his technique. A strong game on Sunday should help show scouts he is developing and help push his draft stock further up the board.
Adam Kennedy: Kennedy is another example of a quarterback prospect who is really flying under-the-radar but could attract NFL teams as 7th-round prospect. Kennedy’s college career started at Utah State where he saw significant snaps in 2011 before losing the job to sophomore Chuckie Keeton in 2012 and led to him transferring to Arkansas State. Kennedy immediately took over at quarterback for the Red Wolves and has thrived, finally giving NFL scouts film to look at and evaluate off of. Kennedy obviously has the size at 6’5” and nice athleticism, but scouts will fall in love with his arm. Sunday’s bowl game will give Kennedy one last chance to prove himself to NFL scouts before he prepares for his Pro Day.