At the beginning of the season, this was projected to be the game that would decide who wins the Big XII. Oklahoma suffered an early loss in conference play to Texas, so if they were to lose Thursday night to Baylor, they would be two games behind Texas and Baylor and be in an almost impossible situation to try and win the Big XII.
Baylor on the other hand, has the potential to play for a national title appearance, assuming two of the four undefeated teams ranked above them were to lose. With thier high-powered offense, they have went up-and-down the field all season.
Here are some key mathups and factors in Thursday night's game.
Baylor Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Only Oregon may have a better offense than Baylor. Though statistically, the Bears are best in the country. Baylor scores more points per game than any team in the country, racks up the most yards per game in the nation, and have the best passing attack in the country. hey are loaded with talent, led by Bryce Petty under center. Petty’s main targets are receivers Tevin Reese and emerging star Antwan Goodley, and Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin head an equally scary rushing attack.
However, this will be Baylor’s toughest test, as the Sooners rank no lower than 28th in any defensive category. However, looking at last week’s game against Texas Tech, the Sooners do have weak spots in their defense. The Red Raiders were able to throw for 388 yards on the Sooners’ defense, and that was without an effective rushing game. With how balanced the Bears are, the Sooners defense will certainly have its hands full.
Oklahoma Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Unlike their counterparts, these units are not nearly as effective. The Sooner offense has been very inconsistent all season, usually because of the on-and-off play of Blake Bell. The Baylor defensive unit is nowhere near the level of their offense, but they are very talented. They are led by future NFL players, safety Ahmad Dixon and defensive lineman Shawn Oakman, a former Penn State transfer.
The Sooners will have to rely heavily on their running game to help give Blake Bell some easier throws. Bell tends to get rattled easily, so Damian Williams and Roy Finch will need to lighten his workload. It will be harder to get going without Trey Millard to help open running lanes, as Millard tore his ACL last week.
“X-Factor”
The X-Factor tonight will be Oakman, the defensive lineman for Baylor. Oakman is incredibly explosive and has the potential to wreak havoc and rattle quarterbacks. With how inconsistent Bell can be, Oakman’s ability to get into the backfield and disrupt the pocket will be key to rattling Bell and forcing him to make bad plays
Key Number
The number to focus on is 200. In Oklahoma’s loss to Texas and close call against TCU, Bell threw for under 200 yards. In the Sooners’ biggest wins, against Notre Dame, Texas Tech and their blowout over Tulsa, Bell threw for over 200 yards. Bell’s ability to make big plays will help keep the Baylor defense guessing and give them the best chance to get a victory.
Game Prediction
If this game is an offensive shootout, Baylor will win every time. They are too explosive.
However, this is Baylor’s first true test of the season, as they have not played a ranked team yet. Their toughest opponent has arguably been Kansas State, who held them to only 35 points and held a lead through three quarters. In their one cloe game, the Bears were able to overcome an early 4th quarter deficit to put up two quick touchdowns to eventually put the game away.The Sooners are more battle-tested but have also shown a lot more vulnerability, especially when they can’t get their offense going early.
Based on this, if this game turns into a low-scoring affair, Baylor has shown the ability to pull away late.
No matter how you look at it, Baylor has shown that they can handle any situation that the Sooners can throw at them.
Predicted Winner: Baylor