Entering 2013, this was a game that was circled on everyone's calendar. What was projected to be two undefeated, Top-5 teams battling in a game that would decide the Pac-12 and likely, the team that would take down the SEC in the National Championship. Unfortunately, Stanford fell to Utah, but both teams are still ranked in the Top-5 of the BCS and very much in the National Title hunt.
Oregon was in a very similar situation last season, undefeated and chasing a National Championship, when Stanford ruined their dreams in a back-and-forth overtime thriller. The Ducks are set on making sure that doesn't happen again.
Here are some of the key matchups and other notes in Thursday Night's showdown.
Oregon Offense vs. Stanford Defense
The key matchup on this side will be Stanford’s front seven against the Ducks’ offensive line. The Cardinal line has done a good job creating pressure this season and opening lanes for their linebackers, like Shayne Skov, to get into the backfield and make plays. Stanford is currently ranked 11th in the nation in rush defense, only allowing a little over 100 yards per game.
However, Oregon has the speed to be able to go horizontally along the field, making it harder for teams to keep up, and they have a lot of it.
With Marcus Mariota at quarterback, and the trio of DeAnthony Thomas, Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner, the Ducks rank 2nd in the country in rushing offense, averaging over 330 yards per game on the ground.
Through the air, the Ducks have a huge advantage. Mariota is completing 64-percent of his passes this season and has thrown 20 touchdowns and is without an interception. On top of that, his scrambling ability forces defenses to be aware of where he is at all times, allowing extra room for receivers like Bralon Addison and Josh Huff to roam around. Ed Reynolds is a very good safety with good instincts and ability to read the quarterback, so he should help minimize the large plays, but Stanford ranks 95th nationally in passing defense.
Stanford is not known as an offensive juggernaut, so the defense will need to keep the Ducks score as low as possible to give the Cardinal any shot at winning this game.
Stanford Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Once again, the key matchup will be in the trenches. Stanford has arguably the best offensive line in college football. They are absolutely loaded with NFL talent, most notably Andrus Peat at left tackle, David Yankey at left guard, and Cameron Fleming at right tackle.
They have kept quarterback Kevin Hogen upright all season, only allowing nine sacks through eight games thus far, and the running game is averaging over five yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Oregon quietly has one of the strongest defensive lines, led my Taylor Hart. They may not have the big names like the defensive lines like the SEC, but they are very good.
Between their rotation, the Ducks’ linemen have totaled 28 tackles for loss and 17 sacks, which is very good considering Oregon plays a base with only three down linemen.
“X-Factor”
Kevin Hogen will be the ultimate “X-factor” of this game. Oregon also has an incredibly talented secondary, featuring future first-round cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Ekpre-Olomu is incredibly aggressive and physical in man coverage and will likely be locked onto Ty Montgomery. Hogen will need to stay calm in the pocket and move through his progressions well for Stanford to succeed on Thursday night.
Key Number
The number to look for is 35. Stanford is only scored more than 35 points twice this season, against Washington State and Arizona State, ranked 100th and 61st in scoring defense nationally. Oregon ranks 8th in scoring defense, only allowing around 17 points per game. If Oregon scores more than 35 points, which they have done in every game this season, Stanford will likely have zero chance of coming away with a win.
Game Prediction
In the game that will ultimately decide who wins the Pac-12 North division, it’s hard not to see Oregon coming away victorious. Their offense has too many different elements for Stanford to try and keep up with. And the Ducks’ defense is talented enough to run with the Cardinal.
Predicted Winner: Oregon