When Oklahoma State lost to West Virginia earlier this season, not many expected that this matchup would be one between two Top-10 teams. Now, it is the premier matchup of the weekend. ESPN’s “College Gameday” will be in Stillwater for this matchup. The Big XII hangs in the balance of this matchup, as whoever wins takes full control of the conference.

Here is a breakdown of the Baylor-Oklahoma State game.

Baylor Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

Bryce Petty has been incredible this season, leading the Bears to an undefeated season and has played himself into Heisman contention. This season, Petty has completed 65-percent of his passes and thrown for 2,992 yards, 24 touchdowns and has only thrown one interception. His ability to distribute the ball and throw from sideline to sideline forces defenses to spread out more.

Last week’s emergence of Levi Norwood is huge for Baylor, especially if Tevin Reese is out again. Oklahoma State has stud cornerback Justin Gilbert who will likely be locked onto Antwan Goodley, so Norwood’s ability to get open will be an absolute necessity for the Bears to have consistent passing. If Reese is available to play, that will add only another threat for Bryce Petty and one more player the Cowboys to have to worry about. One way for Oklahoma State to force Bryce Petty into bad plays will be attacking the left side, where left tackle Spencer Drango suffered a season-ending injury last week.

In the running game, Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin should be back to bolster the Bears’ rushing attack. Shock Linwood has played phenomenal the past couple games, so Baylor will always be able to have a fresh back in the game. The key matchup will be guard Cyril Richardson matching up against defensive tackle Calvin Barnett. Whoever can establish their dominance at the line of scrimmage will ultimately decide how much of a factor Baylor’s rushing game will be.

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Baylor Defense

When J.W. Walsh was quarterbacking the Cowboy offense, they were very pass-happy. Unfortunately, that often led to mistakes, including a loss to West Virginia.

Midway through the season, Clint Chelf took over and the Cowboy offense re-modeled itself. Instead of being focused on the vertical game, they run a much more balanced offense, with a focus primarily on their rushing attack.

Since Chelf took over, running back Desmond Roland has rushed for 418 yards and eight touchdowns.

The running game will be key for Oklahoma State. In their only close game of the season against Kansas State, Baylor only had possession for 20 minutes, or about one-third of the game. Kansas State was able to control the ball by running the ball effectively.

However, Baylor is ranked eighth in total defense and is fairly underrated as a unit. The defense has talented players such as Shawn Oakman rushing the passer and Ahmad Dixon and Bryce Hager making plays all over the field.

X-Factor

The X-Factor will be Clint Chelf. For Oklahoma State to win, they will need Chelf to be able to sustain long drives and minimize turnovers. Baylor’s offense has multiple players that can make big plays at any time, so allowing them to have a short field consistently will only enable the Bears to score quickly and often.

Key Number

The key number for the game will be 35, or what Oklahoma State should aim for in minutes of ball possession. As mentioned before, Kansas State possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes but was unable to pull out the win. Oklahoma State’s offense is better overall than the Wildcats, so they will not need to hold the ball as long as Kansas State, but having a significant margin in time of possession and minimizing Baylor’s chances to be on offense is an absolute must.

Prediction

Despite Baylor’s record and margins of victory, we have seen them overcome tough situations. Against Kansas State, they were losing entering the fourth quarter. Against Oklahoma, they struggled early to get going on offense. Against Texas Tech, they had to overcome an early 20-7 deficit.

Despite all of that, they have shown they are one of the top teams in college football. While Oklahoma State will be their toughest game of the season prior to Bowl play, the Cowboys have shown inconsistency on offense, something that can absolutely not happen against Baylor. If Oklahoma State struggles early, this game could be over by halftime.

We all hope for this to be a close game, but in the end, all signs point to Baylor winning by a safe margin.