As week eleven in the college football season approaches the Big Ten conference is starting to take shape. Ohio State continues to sit on the throne of the conference as king with a undefeated record that dates back to last season. The team most likely to challenge the Buckeyes for the Big Ten title as of now is Michigan State. The Spartans possess the country's best defense with a front seven that would make the Great Wall of China blush, along with a secondary that is one of the best in the nation at creating turnovers.
On top of their defense, quarterback Connor Cook has turned into not just a "game manager" but one of the most consistent and efficient passers in the Big Ten as of late, limiting his turnovers and making opposing defenses pay for costly mistakes. The combination of a big hitting defense and a balance offensive attack add up to a prototypical Big Ten playoff team as the cold and wet weather starts to limit coaches aggressive game plans. Before we etch these two teams into stone for the conference title game however, their is plenty of time for everyone else to gain ground while the Buckeyes and Spartans enjoy a week of rest. Follow along as we preview week elevens Big Ten battles.
Iowa at Purdue
The team struggling the most in the Big Ten by far is Purdue. They have shown signs of life from time to time this season giving up just seven points to the Spartans as well as losing by just a touchdown to Notre Dame earlier in the year. Snapping back to reality however, the Boilmakers have scored just seven points in their last three games as they've fallen to 1-7. Iowa has lost three of their last four games, most recently a 28-9 loss to Wisconsin in which they were unable to take care of the football giving up costly turnovers which proved to be too much to overcome. Assuming head coach Kirk Ferentz stresses ball security this week in practice, the Hawkeyes stout defense and rushing attack will be enough to take care of Purdue in this one. Iowa quarterback Jake Rudock's status is still up in the air as of now after he left Saturdays game against the Badgers with a sprained knee. His game managing skills will be sorely missed if he is unable to play, but Iowa will still will be the heavy favorite if he can't suit up.
Vegas Line: Iowa -15
X Factor: The 28-9 loss to the Badgers was much closer than the box score indicates. If the Hawkeyes continue to turn the ball over they will make it very difficult for themselves to win, even if they are playing Purdue.
Illinois at Indiana
This game is a battle of two 3-5 teams that are struggling to find their first win in weeks. Illinois has lost their last four games as the once hot handed quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has only thrown just one touchdown in the past four games. Indiana has lost their lost three games in a row despite averaging 42 points per game. It's no secret the offense isn't their problem, but a defense that ranks 116th in the country in points allowed and has had a difficult time holding its team's lead during its games has the blame finger pointed at them.
Hoosiers quarterback Nate Sudfeld has thrown 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year and is why Indiana owns the 12th ranked passing team in the country with 333.5 yards through the air per game. Although Illinois has struggled as of late it's important to rememeber this team won just two games last year and is in a transition under second year head coach Tim Beckman as he continues to keep his team competetive. The Fighting Illini are still searching for their first road win, as well as their first Big Ten win this season.
Vegas Line: Indiana -10
X Factor: Nathan Scheelhaase had a touchdown to interception ratio of 12:3 in his first five games but a 1:4 ratio in his last four. Which ever quarterback shows up for this shootout will be a telling sign of which team will be last standing.
Penn State at Minnesota
The Nittnay Lions head to Minnesota coming off a nail-bitting over time win against Illinois while the Gophers have won their last three games including a 34-23 win over 24th ranked Nebraska. Penn State has struggled on the road this season getting blown out by Ohio State and Indiana, both occurring within the last month. At 5-3 the Nittnay Lions are an over achieving bunch, led by true freshman Christian Hackenberg and a solid running game; they upset 18th ranked Michigan in a four-overtime victory three weeks ago.
Meanwhile the Gophers are gushing with confidence as they've averaged 32 points in their last three games, thanks to a rushing attack that has put up 221 yards per game. Penn State has had an inconsistent defense this season that has given up too many big plays due to mental mistakes. With the way Minnesota quarterback Phillip Nelson has played of late it wouldn't be surprising to see him take advantage of a blown coverage for an easy score at some point in this game.
However, one thing that has been consistent for the Nittnay Lions has been the connection of Hackenberg to his prized weapon Allen Robinson. Robinson has accounted for over half of Hackenberg's 2,204 yards passing and the two have shown up clutch during the most critical times of their games this season. With the hot hand of the Gophers and Penn State's struggles on the road I expect MInnesota to go to bed that night with a victory. However, Hackenberg has been the king of comebacks this year leading his team back from many deficits while the Gophers just have shown the inability to close the door on their opponents when leading, as was the case last week blowing a 35-13 lead against Indiana. Long story short, don't shut this one off until the clock hits zeros.
Vegas Line: Minnesota -2
X Factor: Gophers are 3-0 since head coach Jerry Kill left the sideline and started helping in the booth. Where he posts up on Saturday could be the determining factor in keeping their win streak alive.
Nebraska at Michigan
Two 6-2 teams line up to play this game on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Cornhuskers are still singing "Hallelujah" after a hail-mary completion in the end zone for the stunning win against Northwestern last week while the Wolverines are still healing their ego in an embarrassing loss to their in-state rivals Michigan State, a loss where they rushed for a school record (and not a good one) -48 yards. Both teams quarterbacks are struggling as well. Tommy Armstrong had zero touchdowns and three interceptions before the hail mary heave. Devin Gardner owns a putrid 23 quarterback rating after his lackluster performance against the Spartans.
Some key stats that must be accounted for are total yards; Nebraska ranks 30th while MIchigan ranks 66th. Total rushing yards; Nebraska ranks 13th while Michigan ranks 81. Pass yards; Nebraska ranks 92nd while Michigan ranks 45. Lastly, total points scored is almost a tie; Nebraska ranks 22nd where Michigan ranks 24. It's worth noting as well the Wolverines defense has been a night and day difference in comparison to where they play. On the road they often look lost, out of place, and play error filled football. At home they look faster while flying to the ball, and are playing with swagger. With cold weather and rain in the forecast expect a tough passing day for both quarterbacks with the team who creates the most turnovers becoming the heavy favorite.
Vegas Line: Michigan -7
X Factor: Wolverine's head coach Brady Hoke owns a 19 game winning streak in Ann Arbor, a streak that I wouldn't bet against.
BYU at Wisconsin
The 21st ranked Badgers host a red hot surging BYU team that has ripped off five wins in a row in what will be the most anticipated game in the conference come Saturday. Both teams have had success in similar fashion as they possess elite running games and play fundamental defense. Before you roll your eyes at those stereotypical cliches let me explain: Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon who is fifth in FBS in yards per carry (8.7) averages 134 yards per game (sixth best in FBS) while his trusty sidekick James White is averaging 100.5 yards per game.
Pick your poison. Take a look at the other sideline though as BYU's tailback and sophomore Jamaal Williams runs for 104.7 yards per game while his signal caller Taysom HIll averages 105.1 yards on the ground a game. So that's not one, but two rushers for both teams that can and will make you look silly as you pick up your jock strap back at the line of scrimmage. Making these the ONLY two teams in FBS that possess two rushers that average at least 100 yards per game. Deep breaths.
BYU's quarterback Hill has also burned his opposing pass defenses during their five game win streak through the air, leaving no shred of doubt he is a dual threat limiting teams from stacking too many men in the box. Just in the past two games Hill has thrown for 756 yards and seven touchdowns while helping his team average 38 points per game during the past five games. With Wisconsin giving up just 91 yards rushing to opposing teams Hill may be forced to use his arsenal of weapons through the air more than he's used to. He doesn't expect to do all the work though, his defense has created 12 turnovers in their past four games, including four in their most recent win over Boise State. This is sure to be an exciting game taking place in Madison where the Badgers feel more than comfortable as they've won 28 straight games against non-conference opponents, which is the second-longest active streak in the FBS. The game will be broadcasted on ESPN at 2:30 central time.
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -7.5
X Factor: Badgers linebacker Chris Borland missed his last game with a hamstring injury but is hopeful to be back this week. Borland is not only Wisconsin's best defensive player and a borderline first round pick, but he is their senior leader and coach on the field. He will play a critical part in containing BYU's rushing attack and would give them a huge edge to win. If he can't suit up this game will instantly turn into an even tighter match up than first anticipated.