Breaking Down the A.L. East Playoff Race

By Matt Johnson on Thursday, May 29th 2014
Breaking Down the A.L. East Playoff Race

As we sit over 40 games into the season, the 2014 baseball season is beginning to take shape. The theme this season has been injuries, more specifically the countless amount of pitchers lost for the year because of Tommy John surgery. While an injury cloud has hung over this season, there has been plenty of great action along the way.

As we approach the ? point of the young season, teams are starting to establish themselves as contenders or pretenders. Plenty of attention has turned towards the AL East, home of the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox. While the Red Sox have crumbled, something I will focus on later this week, a new team has taken the top spot above the Red Sox and infamous New York Yankees.

Toronto Blue Jays (31-22, First in AL East)

Last year when Toronto acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey before the 2013 season, many fans and baseball writers (including myself) expected Toronto to take off and become a playoff contender. Everyone hoped that with Reyes, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto would have one of the best lineups in baseball. Instead, injuries derailed Reyes and Bautista’s seasons.

A year later, things seem to finally be clicking for the Blue Jays as they ride an eight game winning streak. Reyes missed 16 games after suffering a hamstring injury in the opener, and has missed just one of their next 34 games. Health has played a key role in the Blue Jays early success, their offense is third in runs (256), fourth in on base percentage (.331) and second in slugging percentage (.450). This has been a collective effort so far, but two players stand out to me as big reasons why Toronto is having so much success

Bautista has remained consistent as a key fire for Toronto’s offense. He hit .295 in March with eight home runs and 18 RBI’s, but more impressively had 30 walks. His success carried over into May, while he saw a slight drop in batting average to .284, he has 17 RBI’s on four fewer home runs. He has a .429 on base percentage through 187 at bats. Bautista also ranks sixth in the league in runs created (43.16), a stat you can find thanks to eDraft’s sabermetrics database. Bautista was the Most Valuable Player for the Blue Jays up until Encarnacion went on an unbelievable tear in May. After hitting just two home runs in April, Encarnacion has obliterated the baseball this month. On Tuesday night he hit is 14th home run in May, which tied Bautista's record for the most home runs in a single month. Encarnacion has hit at least one home run in the team's past five series and has homered in three straight games twice over the past 10 games. He has carried the Blue Jays to their eight game winning streak and put them on top in the AL East.

While Encarnacion will certainly cool down in June, Reyes will improve upon a career low .247 batting average. He has had some bad luck with hard hit balls finding gloves and it's just a matter of time before the ball starts landing in gaps and he can use his incredible speed. With Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes and an improved Melky Cabrera this team is ready to compete for the A.L. crown.

New York Yankees (27-24, Second in AL East)

After vowing to spend less money, the Yankees went out and forked over hundreds of millions for Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Masahiro Tanaka. New York was unwilling to accept not making the playoffs for two consecutive seasons and they were willing to go out there and spend.

So far, the Yankees have had mixed results amongst their offseason acquisitions. The 25-year-old Tanaka has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 7-1 record, 2.29 earned run average and 0.98 WHIP. He has been the lone star in a rotation where the next closest starter, Hiroki Kuroda, has a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The Yankees have to be pleased however with the emergence of reliever Dellin Betances, who has 51 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings paired with a 1.48 ERA. New York also has to be pleased with the rejuvenated play of Mark Teixeira who missed most of the 2013 season after wrist surgery. Teixeira has hit nine home runs with 25 RBI's in 25 games, showing off the power that made him a star from 2009-'11.

There are plenty of positives to take away with Tanaka, Betances, Teixeira and Brett Gardner, but there are more than enough negatives to make up for them. Beltran, who was supposed to provide added pop for New York, is on the disabled list with an elbow injury. Meanwhile CC Sabathia isn't expected back until after the All Star break due to a knee injury. Even their major free agent signings in Ellsbury and McCann are struggling mightily. McCann is hitting just .218 heading into June and Ellsbury is only slightly better with a .259 average.

This can't be what Derek Jeter was hoping for when he announced this would be his final season. As Jeter approaches retirement, he can only hope Beltran and Sabathia come back quickly and the Bronx Bombers can put up enough runs to make up for their subpar rotation.

Baltimore Orioles (26-24, Third in AL East) 

The Orioles continue to be the forgotten team in the East, always overlooked by their fellow division mates. While they fell just short of the playoffs last season, they were an 85-win team and 93 wins in 2012.  Now 40 games into the season they hover above the .500 market, treading water as they await reinforcements.

The Orioles started the season without top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy and star third baseman Manny Machado missed the entire month recovering from a knee injury. Their lineup was certainly lifted by the play of offseason acquisition Nelson Cruz who leads the American League in home runs (17) and RBI's (46). Baltimore also has seen strong play from center fielder Adam Jones and his 29 RBI's, While they are middle of the pack in runs (210), it's been pitching that has cost the Orioles most often. Baltimore ranks 23rd in ERA (4.16) and 28th in batting average allowed (.268). A rotation where Bud Norris leads the team in ERA (3.83) and Wei-Yin Chen in wins (five), is not the making of a playoff roster.

Just when things were starting to improve for the Orioles, they lost Matt Wieters to an elbow injury on May 10 and he still hasn't been cleared to practice throwing again. Bundy is recovering well from Tommy John surgery and will be a welcome addition to a weak rotation. The Orioles are managing to stay afloat but if they can't get healthy and their pitching can't improve, they could slide below .500 once again.

Boston Red Sox (22-29, Last in AL East)

Expectations were very low for the Red Sox in 2013, many thought they might be looking towards the future and a stay in the cellar of the East was just their fate. Instead everything seemed to go right for this team and they went all the way to become World Series champions. 

Now the script has flipped, Boston came into this season with high expectations despite losing Ellsbury. They had all of the pieces they needed to remain atop the division, even with a target on their back. Unfortunately for Boston everything has fallen apart. They are 18th in runs scored, 24th in batting average and their pitching has been mediocre. They have dealt with plenty of injuries along the way to guys like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli but that's only a small excuse. 

Boston may have found a small groove thanks to a two-game road sweep against the Atlanta Braves, though they lost 10 games leading up to that. I will go more in-depth into the Red Sox struggles this season, examining why their offense has been struggling and issues their rotation has faced.

Stay In Touch

Scores

1:05 PM ET
Twins
-
Yankees
-
1:05 PM ET
Pirates
-
Orioles
-
1:05 PM ET
Cardinals
-
Mets
-
1:05 PM ET
Rays
-
Blue Jays
-
1:05 PM ET
Tigers
-
Phillies
-
1:05 PM ET
Braves
-
Red Sox
-
1:05 PM ET
Phillies
-
Marlins
-
3:05 PM ET
Reds
-
Angels
-
3:05 PM ET
Cubs
-
Guardians
-
3:05 PM ET
Royals
-
Athletics
-
3:05 PM ET
Giants
-
Dodgers
-
3:05 PM ET
White Sox
-
Rangers
-
3:10 PM ET
Rockies
-
Padres
-
3:10 PM ET
Brewers
-
White Sox
-
6:05 PM ET
Nationals
-
Astros
-
8:10 PM ET
Mariners
-
Diamondbacks
-
Orioles
6
Tigers
5
Astros
0
Mets
5
Cardinals
9
Astros
4
Red Sox
7
Rays
5
Pirates
6
Twins
4
Phillies
7
Nationals
3
Yankees
7
Braves
3
Blue Jays
7
Marlins
8
Reds
11
Padres
10
Giants
3
Rockies
11
Athletics
7
Rangers
3
Dodgers
7
White Sox
6
Rangers
1
Brewers
5
Angels
5
Cubs
4
Diamondbacks
13
Royals
10
Mariners
8
Guardians
7
1:05 PM ET
Astros
-
Pirates
-
1:05 PM ET
Rays
-
Tigers
-
1:05 PM ET
Red Sox
-
Twins
-
1:05 PM ET
Orioles
-
Braves
-
1:05 PM ET
Yankees
-
Blue Jays
-
1:07 PM ET
Blue Jays
-
Phillies
-
1:10 PM ET
Mets
-
Nationals
-
1:10 PM ET
Marlins
-
Cardinals
-
3:05 PM ET
Dodgers
-
Cubs
-
3:05 PM ET
Athletics
-
Giants
-
3:05 PM ET
Rangers
-
Dodgers
-
3:05 PM ET
Guardians
-
White Sox
-
3:10 PM ET
Angels
-
Diamondbacks
-
3:10 PM ET
Rockies
-
Royals
-
3:10 PM ET
Padres
-
Mariners
-
3:10 PM ET
Brewers
-
Reds
-