1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Compared to his previous four full seasons, Posey was nowhere near the statistical dynamo in 2016. Despite this, he was still able to put up a .288 average with 14 homers, 80 RBI and 49 extra-base hits. Posey also posted a splendid .362 on-base percentage and .303 BABip while striking out just four more times than he walked.
The expectation heading into 2017 is that Posey will see more luck in batted balls while maintining a solid strikeout rate. Remember, here's a guy that put up a .320 BABip back in 2015, which pretty much made the difference between his .288 mark in 2016 and .318 mark that year. Look for something to the tune of a .310 average and .380 on-base percentage to go with a 20-90 power split.
2. Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
How good was Sanchez last season? As a rookie, he put up 20 homers in 201 at-bats. Projecting that throughout the course of a 162-game season would have put Sanchez on pace for 60-plus homers. That's obviously not going to happen. First off, some natural regression should occur as he faces teams for the second and third time. That surely plays a role for youngsters after the jump on to the scene big time. Secondly, you simply can't project a full season's stats based on 200 at-bats.
What we do know here is that Sanchez's splits were downright scary as a 23-year-old rookie. Not only did he hit a homer per every 10 at-bats, he also posted a .299 average and .376 on-base perentage. The one issue here is that Sanchez did put up 57 K's in 201 at-bats. That's definitely a sing of a youngster that was swinging for the fences.
Should Sanchez's strikeout numbers decrease, the electricity coming off his bat won't lead to a marked regression in terms of the catcher's average. After all, he posted a tremendous .317 BABip and 1.032 OPS as a rookie. Natural progression seems to suggests Sanchez is in store for a .300-plus average to go with 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBI. His high strikeout rate is what places Posey above this youngster in our rankings heading into the 2017 season.
3. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
Contreras was tremendous in a part-time role for the Cubs last season. He hit .282 with 12 homers, 35 RBI and 27 extra-base hits over 252 at-bats. If we project those numbers over the course of an entire season, it looks more like 27 homers and 85-plus RBI. Not too shabby for a 24-year-old rookie making his MLB debut.
Not only will Contreras be the Cubs' primary backstop this season, look for him to either hit fifth or sixth. That will be a ton of RBI opportunities for the dynamic youngster. We have him high here, but projections tell us this Dominican will live up to the expectations.
4. Jonathan Lucroy, Texas Rangers
After coming over from the Brewers in a mid-season trade last year, Lucroy put up 11 homers and 31 RBI in 47 games. While his average dipped from his time in Milwaukee (.299 to .276), it's readily apparent that Lucroy has more RBI opportunity now in the middle of a better lineup. That was magnified by the fact that he put up an run-batted-in aver 1.5 games in Texas.
The better news here is that Lucroy hit at a .293 clip with a tremendous .398 on-base percentage in Arlington. Now playing half his games there, look for his offense to pick up a bit moving forward.
5. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
Despite a minor scare at the World Baseball Classic, Perez is perfectly fine. That's tremendous news for the Royals as they enter Opening day. At this point, one could draw the conclusion that Perez is the team's most-feared hitter. Projected to bat fifth in 2017, Perez will be hitting behind the likes of Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer. That's definitely good news for his power numbers.
Speaking of power numbers, Perez has seen his homers go up each of the six seasons he's been in the Majors. He's now coming off a third consecutive 20-plus homer season. What pushes Perez down a notch here is that he hit just .247 with a .288 OBP and struck out 119 times in 514 at-bats last season. Those are not good splits right there.
6. J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins
Is this the season Realmuto breaks out? He's been a pretty consistent performer from the plate in his first two seasons as a starting backstop.
2015: 10 homers, 47 RBI (441 at-bats)
2016: 11 homers, 48 RBI (509 at-bats)
Not tremendous power numbers. However, the youngster did push his average to .303 from .259 the previous season while racking up an OBP of 53 points higher. That's the thing. Can Realmuto's power numbers show the same increase in 2017 as his other splits showed in 2016? If so, he has a chance to be a top-five fantasy catcher.
7. Brian McCann, Houston Astros
Now in Houston, it will be interesting to see if McCan shows the same home/away splits as he did with the Yankees last season. The veteran hit .240 at home compared to .245 on the road while putting up pretty much the same power splits (11 homers and nine homers respectively).
The interesting dynamic here is that Yankee Stadium actually ranked as a better fantasy venue for hitters than Minute Maid Park last season. As it is, McCann has put up 20-plus homers in seven consecutive seasons. Let's just see if he can get his average up from the .230-.245 range we have seen the past three seasons.
8. Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers
Grandal will definitely need to get his average up in order to be considered a top-end fantasy options. Sure he's averaging nearly 20 homers the past three years and is coming off a 27-homer campaign for the Dodgers.
Grandal also has failed to hit at a better than a .234 clip in each of his first three MLB seasons. Adding to this, he struck out 116 times in just 390 at-bats last season. Ouch.