While statistics from the first half - no matter how great or how dreadful - do carry into the final months of the season, many players view the three-day All-Star Break as a chance to recover, make adjustments and gear up for a fresh start. The following five players have toiled through disappointing starts and are looking for just that - a chance to rebound and prove their fantasy worth once again.
Yovani Gallardo, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers
After Zack Greinke was dealt to Los Angeles at the deadline in 2012, Gallardo was dubbed the clear-cut ace of Milwaukee’s rotation. Finishing last season at 16-9 with a 3.66 earned run average and 204 strikeouts in 204.0 innings pitched, the 27-year-old righty appeared primed to lead the Brewers staff back into contention in 2013. It was ugly from the get-go both on and off the field for Gallardo, who was charged with a DUI two weeks into the season after compiling a 6.61 ERA in his first three starts. He has mixed in strings of solid performances with downright brutal beatings, though fantasy owners can be encouraged by a few glimmers of hope in his statistics. His strikeout rate is down from its norm (7.21 K/9 this year compared with 9.0 K/9 in 2012), but his groundball rate is up, and he has given up home runs at a significantly lower rate than in the past two seasons. The prospect that either the fate of Brewers starting pitching as a whole will turn around, or he will find himself contributing on a contending team in a few weeks is reason for Gallardo owners to retain hope of a second-half comeback.
Matt Cain, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants
Just over a month ago, fans celebrated the one-year anniversary of Cain’s date with baseball immortality, as he threw a 14-strikeout perfect game against the Houston Astros. The Matt Cain of 2013 has been unrecognizable as the former All-Star, Cy Young Award contender and postseason ace of seasons past. In the first half of 2013, Cain is 5-6 for the struggling Giants, and carries a hefty 5.06 ERA into the second half. Always a fly-ball pitcher, he has been victimized by the long ball this season, as 12.7% of all fly-balls he surrendered in the first half have left the park. Cain has been a pitcher of extremes - while 11 of his 19 outings are recorded as Quality Starts, he has an 11.50 ERA in his non-quality starts as compared to a 2.01 ERA in his Quality Starts. Pitchf/x data shows no significant dips or jumps in either his velocity or how often he uses one pitch or another, so it appears safe to say that the 28-year-old Cain is not suffering from injury or decline. Fantasy owners should approach the second half with guarded optimism that the former ace will string together a few strong outings and get his season back on track.
Josh Willingham, Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
A bit of a late bloomer as a 27-year-old rookie with the Marlins in 2006, Willingham has proven since then that his talent is real and his value is undeniable. The left fielder signed a lucrative deal with the Twins in the winter of 2011, and made good on his contract with 35 home runs and 110 runs batted in in 2012, surpassing all of his former career bests. Willingham tried to play through a bone bruise and torn meniscus in his left knee, but ultimately opted for surgery and hit the disabled list on July 2. Before his surgery he was hitting .224, a full 37 points below his career average, and the overall decrease in his power and production numbers - 10 home runs, 13 doubles and 37 RBI - vastly diminished his fantasy value. The good news is, once Willingham is back on the field - and estimates put his return between four and six weeks away - fantasy owners will have a pain-free ballplayer back on their rosters. The bad news? Once a likely trade piece for the Twins, Willingham won’t be making his second-half comeback for a contending team, as his injury makes it difficult to deal him at the deadline.
Giancarlo Stanton, Outfielder, Miami Marlins
Stanton just may be the most prolific power hitter in the National League, but he’s done little to show it in 2013. Marlins fans wondered if the man David Price dubbed “create-a-player” for his smooth swing and tall, athletic frame would ever hit one out of their new stadium, as Stanton endured a homerless drought until April 27. He followed up his first dinger with a two-homer game against the Mets the following day, but strained his hamstring on April 29 and was out of action for five weeks to follow. Since his return in early June, Stanton’s power has been stagnant, and his average has hovered around .250, a far cry from the .290 he hit in 2012. Batting third in a Marlins lineup that sits at 30th of 30 teams in most offensive categories, including batting average, on-base percentage, home runs and runs batted in, Stanton would benefit - perhaps more than any other player in the game - from a change of scenery. Fantasy owners sit back an wait to see if owner Jeffrey Loria is willing to part with the team’s lone superstar. If he ships out of the Miami wasteland at the deadline, expect Stanton’s power to come back full-force, and for him to finally rack up RBI for a contender.
Josh Hamilton, Outfield, Los Angeles Angels
Perhaps the most disappointing, and most inexplicable first half belongs to the final name on this list. Controversy - some of it warranted but most of it not - seems to surround Hamilton, who has shown to be a streaky hitter throughout his career. Since signing a long-term contract with the Angels in the offseason, Hamilton’s power numbers have been down, his strikeouts have been up, and his luck has been awful. Taking a .227 batting average, .285 on-base percentage, 14 home runs and 40 runs batted in into the second half, Hamilton has shown improvement - albeit slow and steady - over the course of the first half. His BABIP is .268, 52 points below last season’s, which indicates that he has been a victim of “balls finding gloves” more often than not. The 32-year-old is healthy, his team is improving, and fantasy owners who have toyed with the idea of banishing Hamilton to the bench or the waiver wire might want to hold off for the first weeks of the second half. As difficult as it is to wait it out for a hitter who goes hot and cold at such extremes, Hamilton has the track record to prove that it’s worth it.