There is a fantasy unicorn out there. A player who possesses the ability to hit 45-plus home runs, 100-plus RBIs, double-digit steals and a batting average above .280. That's the realistic potential Stanton could reach, but it's never been real. We've seen glimpses of the mythical baseball unicorn, but only that. Injuries, a wide variety, have always cast the potential under the shadows.
It happens every year, but we are all allured by the opportunity to be the fantasy stockholder when Stanton goes off and it all clicks. Whether it was 2014, 2015 or 2016, we fall into the venus flytrap and we all get hurt from it.
2016 Recap:
The first two months of Stanton's season left plenty of chagrin for fantasy owners. Finally, they had a healthy Stanton who went to the plate 182 times and consistently made his way into the Miami Marlins lineup. But the results of those healthy trips to the batters' box were crushing, Stanton struck out in 33.5 percent of his trips to the plate and put up a lowly .214 batting average. Even with 12 home runs, fantasy owners had to feel a sense of regret with the pick they made.
Power and walks are great, Stanton certainly brought those together and kept his on-base percentage at a high mark, but Chris Carter does that and he nearly had to sign in Japan this season after a 40-homer season. The point is, Stanton's marks left reason for concern. He also made matters worse with an increased swinging strike percentage and swing percentage, yet encountered poor results.
He did deal with a middle-body injury in May but that didn't require a trip on the 15-day disabled list. After two poor months, the calendar turned to June and Stanton turned in slightly better results. The power remained, though to a lesser extent. Over his next 250 plate appearances from June 1 to Aug. 13, Stanton hit 13 home runs. It's a solid mark but a lesser HR/AB ratio than he posted in the first two months. But he at least raised his batting average by 50 points, giving him startable relevance in fantasy. But still, his swing rates outside the zone and overall rose.
Then the injury bug came back, Stanton suffered a left groin strain and missed the next four weeks. Even when he returned, he missed a handful of games in September. Over the final 38 plate appearances of his season, Stanton mustered only six hits, two being home runs, and he struck out nine times.
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A final line of 27 home runs, 74 RBIs, 56 runs scored, a .240/.326/.489 slash line with a .344 wOBA and 114 wRC+, it marked the worst season of his major-league career. People reached for the fantasy unicorn and they received thorns and some flowers instead, a major disappointment.
2017 Outlook
Questions must be raised about Stanton going forward. It goes beyond Stanton's injury history, which is deep and varying to raise numerous concerns. Last season his HR/FB rate dropped from 32.1 percent in 2015 to 22.7 percent, it is still a top-10 mark but a fall mark from the top form we saw previously. Stanton's hard-hit rate dropped from 49.7 percent to 42.9 percent and his groundball rate soared from 34.8 percent to 40.
When you combine that with higher swing rates in and out of the zone then wrap it up with a declining walk rate, the picture is much glimmer than it used to be and we are forced to evaluate Stanton in a more skeptical light.
It just may be that his shift to being an even more aggressive hitter results in more strikeouts, fewer walks and unfortunately a much lower batting average. He showed in 2014 and 2012 that he could reach up to that .290 batting average threshold, but the past two years have led negative results. If he can't return this season with a more patient approach at the plate and yield more walks, fantasy owners must accept that the days of a .280-plus average are gone, Stanton's days now lie in the .250-.265 range.
As he gets older, the speed also seems to be removed from his game with declining stolen bases numbers, including zero last season. But there remains the massive power, the power we see on display so often that just makes your jaw drop at how majestic and sweet it is. Stanton's power is pure poetry, the sound of wind chimes blowing on a cool day, the fresh, cool breeze on a day at the beach.
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IF he can stay healthy, perhaps we could see the 40-homer power. He hit over 20 home runs into July last year and if not for the strained groin, he easily would have cracked 30-plus. Stanton is only 27 and many hoped his push to a more aggressive style at the plate would lead to better power numbers, it hasn't. Stanton has come into 2017 with a new outlook on life and the game, that new perspective could impact in a positive way how he approaches at bats and games themselves.
Unfortunately, he's likely going to strike out more than he did years ago and we may never see that high batting average again, but hopefully last year's numbers were just an outlier. This is the last chance, one final journey we all take into the fantasy wilderness to try and capture the magic that is Stanton. Maybe he's no longer the fantasy unicorn, but he can be the player that, when healthy, helps carry a fantasy team to the magical promise land and a fantasy title.
2017 Projections: .264/.351/.567, .378 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 36 HRs, 91 RBIs, 83 runs scores
ADP Analysis
Potential gets you places, especially in fantasy sports. Stanton offers lots of it, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's typically one of the first 40 players off the board in ESPN fantasy drafts. It puts him around the likes of Nelson Cruz, Ryan Braun, George Springer and Yoenis Cespedes. It's a deep group of outfielders that all offer plenty of skills.
In terms of comparisons, Cespedes can't offer as much potential as Giancarlo. But Cespedes has a track record of health, hit 30-plus home runs in consecutive seasons and carries a .280-plus batting average with a strikeout rate below 25 percent. There's security and great fantasy numbers owners can rely on, he deserves to be drafted ahead of Stanton.
But the likes of Springer and Braun, a compelling case could be made to take Stanton over them. The 27-year-old demonstrated his impressive power once again last season, but it took him 744 plate appearances to reach 29 home runs. Now he'll be playing center field and the Astros have a much deeper outfield than 2016, increasing the chances he gets less playing time in 2017. It will still be 500-plus trips to the plate, but that puts him as a candidate for around 25 home runs and a sub-.270 batting average with limited stolen base appeal isn't enough to draft him ahead of Stanton.
Braun put up great numbers last season with a .305 batting average and 30 home runs, but his second-half explosion is unsustainable over a full year, even at Miller Park. He remains a major candidate and a move away could also be a hit for his power numbers. An optimistic projection of a .285 batting average, 15 stolen bases and 25 home runs, puts his potential below Stanton's and both carry injury risk, while only one carries trade risk.
Stanton as a top-40 pick certainly sounds risky, perhaps too rich given the high chance he misses more than 20 games and puts up a low batting average. But in terms of other outfielders going around that range, the selection makes some sense.