Everyone covets top prospects—from general managers to fantasy owners, few things are as coveted as young players with “potential”. While everyone in keeper and dynasty leagues put an extreme price. Three of the prized hitting prospects poised to merge in the big leagues this year all played in the outfield, but each came up at a different time.
Behind him was Houston Astros right field prospect George Springer who flashed similar tools to Mike Trout with impressive power and speed, though Springer’s strikeout rate and average are worse. Springer was ranked as one of the top-15 prospects in baseball and was the first to be called up on April 17.
Coming into the season, St. Louis Cardinals outfield Oscar Taveras was considered a consensus top-five prospect with the potential to be a perennial MVP-candidate in his prime. While Taveras was the highest rated prospect between the three, he was second of the three to be called up but only spent a short time in the majors.
A little less than two months after Springer was called up, the Pittsburgh Pirates promoted their own star right field prospect. Gregory Polanco was destroying the ball for Triple-A Indianapolis for months before. Polanco has a mix of power, speed and an excellent approach at the plate, making him a future .300/20/20 player with the potential to be even greater.
While the long-term is always important, the focus here turns towards what these players can do for fantasy teams right now. It doesn’t matter who was the highest rated player or who has the best long-term potential, this is about the biggest immediate impact. Because of that Oscar Taveras’s short-term outlook is more cloudy than Taveras and Springer.
Taveras and Springer have spots in the big league lineup locked down for the rest of the season as long as they don’t go into a crazy 0-100-type slump. While Taveras has the talented to be a starter for the Cardinals, St. Louis has had Allen Craig starting in right field when he is healthy. If the Cardinals were to trade Craig, then Taveras will hold down the everyday job for the Cardinals and right up there with Springer and Polanco.
So it all comes down to Springer versus Polanco—the 22-year-old from the Dominican Republic who was signed as a pitcher at the age of 16 against the 24-year-old ex-UConn star. Springer’s overall numbers are obviously higher than Polanco, given he was called up two months prior. In 273 at-bats, Springer has 18 home runs and 48 RBIs with a .341 on-base percentage, but is hitting .235 on the season with 109 strikeouts. Springer has been solid on the base paths swiping five bags and shown off some speed with 41 runs on the season.
Polanco just surpassed 100 at-bats on Sunday and while the power is slowly coming along, he has been tremendous getting contact and getting on base. Polanco’s .299 average and .385 on-base percentage, both higher than Springer. He has also been more effective stealing bags with five stolen bases in 26 games compared to Springer’s five stolen bases in 72 games. Polanco also has a significantly lower strikeout percentage (.205) versus Springer’s rate (.335) and a higher BB/AB rate (1.44) against Springer’s (.133).
It’s a tough debate and one that comes down to if you prefer a player with a higher batting average, more stolen bases and fewer strikeouts versus big power and RBI numbers but a very low average and a lot of strikeouts. Springer’s average has progressively declined since he hit .294 with 10 home runs in May, then followed by a .227 average with six home runs in June and .143 average thus far in July.
In the end, the fantasy points are going to come more often from Springer’s home runs and RBI’s. Springer’s power is ready enough to where he can hit 30 home runs this season and even challenge for 90 RBI’s, Polanco’s power projects more towards 10-12 home runs this season, though he should hover around a .280 batting average, which could be much higher than Springer.
If you have either outfielder you should feel pretty confident about their outlook going forward. They have not only earned the trust to be in their team’s starting lineup but in your fantasy lineup as well. But when push comes to shove, Springer holds the slight fantasy edge right now.