The All Star Break is always a nice break for baseball players and managers. It gives them time to reflect on everything they’ve done in the first half of the season and look at what areas they can improve on. The four-day break is also very helpful for fantasy baseball owners, allowing them to assess their roster and prepare for the second half.
You can certainly feel a little more relaxed if you have at least one of the top scorers from the first half on your roster. Hitters like Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout and Michael Brantley have all obliterated the baseball through the first 90 games of the season. Meanwhile, pitchers like Johnny Cueto, Garrett Richards and Felix Hernandez shutdown lineups with ease on a weekly basis.
The question is which players can carry over their MVP-level success for the remainder of the season and continue being the driving force leading your fantasy team. Here I take a look at the top-five hitters and pitchers for the second half of the season.
Hitters
1.) Mike Trout, Center Fielder, Los Angeles Angels
Pre All-Star: 345 AB’s, 65 Runs, 73 RBI’s, 22 HR’s, .310 AVG, .400 OBP, 10 SB’s
After falling short to Miguel Cabrera in the Most Valuable Player voting the past two seasons, Trout certainly is the front-runner at the All Star break. Trout got off to a hot start in April with five home runs and a .314 average, before some started to worry if a regression was rolling in during March when he hit just .263.
Well, let’s just say it was a little cold streak and the 22-year-old got back on track in June with a .361 average, .471 on-base percentage, seven home runs and 21 RBI’s. He has been propelling the Angels’ with the help of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton all the way to the second best record in baseball.
Going forward, there is no reason to think Trout won’t continue to be the best player in baseball. He is well on his way to posting career-highs in home runs and RBI’s, though with a significant drop in stolen bases. As long as Trout remains a .310-plus hitter over the course of the season he could potentially have a 40 home run-30 stolen base season.
2.) Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pre All-Star: 355 AB’s, 57 Runs, 61 RBI’s, 17 HR’s, .324 AVG, .420 OBP, 15 SB’s
Last year’s National League MVP is at it again this year, making his case for why he should win back-to-back MVP trophies. The 27-year-old has spent all six years with the Pirates and is closing in on joining Barry Bonds as the only Pirates to ever win consecutive MVP awards and the third center fielder ever in baseball history to do it.
Not only is McCutchen having a great season he has actually been even better than he was last season. At the break, McCutchen sits at 57 runs (40 shy of last year’s total), is just 71 hits shy of passing last year’s 185 and just four home runs shy of his 21 dingers last season. His numbers improved upon the addition of Gregory Polanco who provided more RBI opportunities in front of McCutchen and gave the entire lineup a nice boost.
The Pirates really struggled early in the season and their chance of making it back to the playoffs looked slim. While many may not agree with it, award voters don’t give a lot of recognition to players on non-playoff teams. Fortunately, the Pirates are just 3.5 games out in the NL Central, so he can easily pull ahead and win back-to-back MVP awards.
3.) Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pre All-Star: 357 AB’s, 66 Runs, 61 RBI’s, 16 HR’s, .308 AVG, .400 OBP, 8 SB’s
Goldschmidt continues to dominate the beautiful game of baseball, developing from power hitter into all-around superstar. The 26-year-old is at it again in 2014, putting a very pedestrian Diamondbacks’ lineup on his back as he carries them out of the basement in the National League.
Despite being surrounded by a lineup that ranks 21st in runs (376) and 25th in on-base percentage (.307), Goldschmidt is having another All Star season. While his 16 home runs at the break project below the 36 bombs he sent out last season, he has already matched last year’s doubles total (36) and could surpass his career-mark (41) in only a short time. His worst month of the season came last month when he managed to hit just .277 with five home runs and 15 RBI’s. However, he has turned it around so far in June with a mammoth .395 average in 43 at bats.
Goldschmidt likely won’t surpass the 125 RBI’s he put up last season, but that blame can be set on the rest of this lineup. He is well on his way to a career-high in hits, runs and a great chance to crack 15 stolen bases for the third consecutive season.
4.) Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Pre All-Star: 319 AB’s, 58 Runs, 54 RBI’s, 17 HR’s, .292 AVG, .409 OBP, 4 SB’s
Bautista missed time at the end of June with a hamstring injury, but still ranks amongst the top offensive leaders in baseball. Despite having 30 fewer at-bats than the players on this list, “Joey Bats” still finds his way into the top-five hitters for the second half of the season.
Durability has been a bit of an issue; he missed 42 games last season and 70 games in 2012 battling numerous injuries. Because of the injuries, he failed to crack the 30 home run mark each of the past two seasons, after two years of 40-plus home runs. This season, Bautista has remained pretty healthy and can easily crack 30 home runs this season. While he isn’t seeing as many quality pitches with Edwin Encarnacion out of the lineup, he is still driving in Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera.
If Bautista can stay in the lineup, there is no reason to think he can’t be a top-five hitter in the second half of the season. He is patient at the plate, looking for the right pitch to send over the wall and he can hit for a nice average. It will take a strong second half, but Bautista could finish with 100 runs, 100 RBI’s, 30 home runs and 10 SB’s.
5.) Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
Pre All-Star: 353 AB’s, 49 Runs, 57 RBI’s, 7 HR’s, .334 AVG, .393 OBP, 7 SB’s
While it might be surprising to see Cano as a top-five player given some of the names he was listed above, it’s hard not to put the Mariners’ second baseman on this list. Expectations were high when he signed with Seattle in the offseason and while many were expecting a noticeable drop in production, Cano is off to a great start.
The area certainly leaving fantasy owners disappointed is home runs—after five straight seasons with 25-plus home runs, Cano stands at the All Star break with just seven long balls. Obviously playing in Safeco Field has hurt his power numbers, resulting in more doubles and a reasonable chance Cano will set a career-high in doubles. Through the first two months of the season, he had just two home runs. In June, it appeared Cano really started to figure out the park dimensions and found his power stroke once again, hitting four home runs last month. While he won’t reach the 27 home runs he sent out last season, he can send 17-20 out of the yard.
Cano comes in at number five because he gives you an excellent mix of RBI’s, runs and he gets on base very often. He can give you a 15-15 season, and the chance for RBI’s could grow more with the Mariners’ plan to acquire more bats at the trade deadline.
Pitchers
1.) Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pre All-Star: 14 starts, 11-2. 126 K’s, 1.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
Despite missing an entire month of starts, Kershaw has once again established himself as the best pitcher in all of baseball. Sure the 125 strikeouts and 1.78 earned run average in 14 starts are impressive, but it’s even more than that.
41 ? innings—Kershaw’s shutout streak was just another example of how commanding he is on the mound. During that streak, Kershaw pitched the first no-hitter of his career and one of the best pitching performances in baseball history. 15 strikeouts and not allowing a hit or walk across nine innings, with the only base runner reaching on an error. The 15 strikeouts have been sort of a trend now for Kershaw, as he has 10-plus strikeouts in three of his last five starts.
Going forward, there is no reason to believe Kershaw won’t continue to roll on and be the best pitcher in baseball. He was won his past eight starts with a 0.74 ERA and 80 strikeouts over that stretch. It’s insane to think Kershaw just turned 26 this year and has even more room to grow. He is well on his way to a 20-win season, 225 strikeouts and a Cy Young award.
2.) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Pre All-Star: 20 starts, 11-2, 154 K’s, 2.12 ERA, 0.9 WHIP
If not for the players surrounding him, Hernandez would have multiple Cy Young awards by now. The right-hander has been amongst the best in baseball since 2009, and his numbers are on pace to surpass what earned him the Cy Young award in 2010.
While the Mariners impressive first half has been helped by Cano, Hernandez has been the engine behind their early success. After years of starts where he would give up two runs and lose, the Mariners’ offense is now good enough to help the 28-year-old have an 11-2 record at the break. Hernandez is just entering his prime, if you want further proof just look at his increase in strikeouts, just 62 strikeout shy of his total from last season. He relies on a lot of ground ball outs and strikeouts, made evident by his .115 fly ball out percentage.
There is no question who the best pitcher in the American League is and Hernandez should glide to his second Cy Young if he can just keep on rolling. Keep on buying Hernandez 9.6 strikeout per nine innings ratio and 2.04 fielding independent pitching because they all point to Hernandez keeping this up over the course of the season.
3.) Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Pre All-Star: 19 starts, 12-4, 115 K’s, 1.83 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
While Wainwright earned the nod to be the starting pitcher for the National League in the All Star Game, he falls right behind Kershaw on this list. There is no question Wainwright has been an ace this season and he has been one of the bright spots for an up and down Cardinals’ season.
The veteran right-hander has never had an ERA below 2.00, so it’s difficult to believe the soon-to-be 33-year-old is set to have a career season. Skepticism aside, Wainwright’s WHIP and strikeout totals fall right in line with his career marks, giving plenty of reasons to believe he can continue with similar success. Wainwright can finish the season with an era around 2.1 and with 200 strikeouts and 20 wins, remains amongst the top pitchers.
4.) David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
Pre All-Star: 20 starts, 9-7, 164 K’s, 3.23 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
While Price’s wins and ERA certainly leave a lot to be desired from a top-five starter, he keeps racking up the strikeouts and now leads the league with 164 whiffs. What makes Price more intriguing is the possibility he could be playing for a new team at some point in July.
The Rays are ready to trade Price before he cashes in on a contract extension and with a year and a half left on his contract, now is the time for the franchise to move him and maximize their value. Price has dominated the American League for years including during his 2012 Cy Young season.
Despite facing designated hitters and powerful lineups in each outing, Price has worked on lowering his ERA this season. After finishing April with a 5.24 ERA, Price improved in May with a 3.8 ERA and 2.27 mark in June. Some of the bad luck that was inflating Price’s numbers have settled down and he is again nearing his regular numbers.
I believe Price will be traded by July 31 and there is a great chance he winds up in the National League. Facing pitchers instead of a designated hitter will be a nice boost and the drop in offense will be noticeable as well. Try and go after Price now, because the best is yet to come from the 28-year-old.
5.) Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
Pre All-Star: 14 starts, 8-1, 102 K’s, 2.08 ERA, .84 WHIP
While Kershaw draws the national spotlight for his shutout streak, no hitter and just overall greatness, Sale sits quietly as one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 25-year-old lefty has been electric this season in 14 starts, showing why he could be the face of the American League in just a few years.
Sale’s 2.08 earned run average would rank third in the majors if he was eligible, while his .84 walks and hits per innings pitched is lower than Hernandez, Price and Wainwright. While he isn’t striking out as many batters, Sale is strong with his command with a 6.38 K/BB ratio, allowing just 1.5 walks per nine innings and a 2.47 fielding independent pitching.
Going forward, I love Sale for the second half of the season as a leading fantasy ace for your fantasy team. He is surrounded by a strong White Sox’ lineup for run support and his ERA should remain in the low two’s thanks to his command and .84 WHIP.