Pitching in the late innings is dicey business, with the fate of the game on the line and job security notoriously low among closers in the game today. For every Joe Nathan, a John Axford lives, as being named a team’s closer is often a fleeting accolade. The following young relievers have shown early dominance, and perhaps more importantly, staying potential. In fact, there may be more fantasy “sure bets” on this list than among ninth-inning guys who have held their jobs for years.

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Kimbrel’s value to the Braves as a closer has been rewarded with three All-Star Game selections, and two seasons in which he’s received consideration for both the NL Cy Young and MVP awards. Named Rookie of the Year in 2011, Kimbrel’s first season in the bigs included a league-leading 46 saves, approximately 15 strikeouts per nine innings, and a miniscule 2.10 earned run average. While his save total dropped by four the following season, he showed marked improvements across the board, knocking a full run off his ERA and striking out batters at a 16.7 K/9 rate. Kimbrel’s 2013 has followed suit, and at age 25, he is the top fantasy closer in the league, if not in all of baseball. Once labeled a risk because of his small stature and heavy workload, the hard-throwing closer has proven automatic out of Fredi Gonzalez’s pen.
 

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

Cuban defector Chapman has put on a show in the late innings for Cincinnati since his debut in late 2010. Every spring, the idea to convert the 25-year-old closer into a starting pitcher circulates around Reds Camp, but the team always seems to get cold feet at the prospect of slashing miles per hour off the world record holder for fastball velocity. As a rookie, he hit 105.1 MPH, and his heater hasn’t lost a tick since. Radar gun readings aside, Chapman’s fantasy value lies in his strikeout totals and the saves he converts for the Reds, who have been perennial contenders in the NL Central. This season, the lefty has struggled with the bases on balls, going from a 2.9 BB/9 ratio in 2012 to a 4.5 today, something that has plagued him in the past. He has shown an ability to make adjustments, and the future looks incredibly bright for the man with the triple-digit fastball.

Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox

The tall, hard throwing Reed is in his second season as Chicago’s closer and has both cut his walks and upped his strikeouts from 2012 to 2013. His overall numbers have improved, with a 3.60 ERA, 49 strikeouts and only 37 hits allowed in 45.0 innings this season. He has racked up 26 saves, three away from his 2012 total, despite pitching at the back-end of the bullpen for a White Sox team swallowed up in a disastrous season. A starting pitcher in college, Reed relies on a mid-90s fastball and hard slider along with a two-seamer and change to complete his repertoire. The durable righty is Chicago’s closer of the future as well as the present, and he should continue to improve with more experience.

Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers

Starter or reliever? It’s a question Tigers fans and fantasy owners often ask themselves about Smyly’s future role with the team. After making 18 starts in 2012, Smyly competed with Rick Porcello for the fifth-starter role in Spring Training only to find himself in the bullpen come Opening Day. His four-pitch repertoire - low-90s four-seamer, cut fastball, slider and occasional changeup - would make him a good fit for the rotation, however his 2013 numbers are testament to his success in relief. He is currently 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 40 appearances this season, has allowed only 43 hits in 61.0 innings and strikes out batters at a 9.6 K/9 clip. With only 160.1 big league innings under his belt, we are still looking at a small sample size with the 68th overall pick in the 2010 draft. It’s difficult to argue with the numbers Smyly has put up, and if his future does indeed lie in short late-inning stints, he could find a home as a future closer, either with the Tigers or elsewhere.

Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers

Smyly may be facing a logjam for the ninth-inning role from a man who has thrown only 15 Major League innings. The 22-year-old Venezuelan Rondon has come up surrounded by hype, though he was hit hard in his brief stint with the parent club. Shaped like Rick Reuschel but with a right arm like a thunderbolt, the scouting report on Rondon notes a power fastball - that touched 102 MPH in the Futures Game - and secondary pitches that are improving. His command has been described as “terrible,” and he experiences trouble finding the plate at times, but he has been able to sail through the Minors on the sheer awesomeness of his stuff. His makeup and conditioning have come into question as well, with his weight nearing 270 on his 6’3” frame, two more variables that the Tigers must consider. Fantasy owners can marvel at his talent all day long - only time will tell whether they’re holding onto the next Chapman, or the next Joel Zumaya.