In almost every league, the number one and number two picks are going to be Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera. And quite honestly, the second pick in the draft is the easiest decision to make, as it's simply the other option between these two fantasy baseball superstars.

Should you have the first overall pick, well, that's where the controversial argument with yourself begins.

Should you take Mike Trout, or should you take Miguel Cabrera? Or, perhaps, should you trade out of the top selection?

The answer may surprise you.

League Scoring Matters Most

First and foremost, any analysis on this matter depends on the type of league and scoring system your league employs. Most standard leagues are head-to-head in each category, with the categories being: batting average, home runs, runs scored, runs batted in and stolen bases.

In these leagues, the selection should be Tigers star Miguel Cabrera, albeit a close call. This is based strictly on the aforementioned scoring system.

Let's think about this logically. In the five categories, Cabrera bested Trout in three of the five last year, with Trout outscoring Cabrera in runs scored and stolen bases.

As many of you know, runs scored and stolen bases can be had later in a fantasy baseball draft. With Cabrera slated to be eligible at third base this season, and seeing there is no one close at that position, he is the easy choice.

Similar production to Trout can be had from a Andrew McCutchen, who is not worth the top selection. Last season, Cutch was 185/583 for a .317 average, scored 97 runs, hit 21 home runs, drove in 84 runs while stealing 27 bases. Mike Trout was 190/589 for a .323 average, he scored 109 runs, hit 27 home runs, drove in 97 runs while stealing 33 bases.

While Trout bests McCutchen in every category, the difference between the two is small relative to the second-best third baseman, Cabrera's drafted position. Cabrera hit .348, scored 103 runs, hit 44 home runs, drove in 137 runs, and stole three bases last year. The next best third baseman was a Adrian Beltre, who hit .315, scored 88 runs, hit 30 home runs, drove in 92 runs and stole one base.

Replacing Production

What Cabrera lacks in terms of runs scored and stolen bases (relative to Trout) can be made up later in the draft. Stolen bases is an overrated category to go after in standard head-to-head leagues, due to the fact that the top finishers last season were Jacoby Ellsbury, Eric Young, Rajai Davis, Jean Segura, and Alex Rios.

Not to mention players who can be had later in the drafts who can contribute batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. From what Trout can do over Cabrera, it can be made up at other positions. For example, Shin-Soo Choo scored over 100 runs and stole 20 bases, Hunter Pence scored 91 runs and stole 22 bases.

Making up the difference in batting average, home runs, and runs batted from Trout to Cabrera is a lot tougher, seeing as Miguel Cabrera is a perennial Triple Crown threat, wheras Trout is not.

Last season, Mike Trout's BABIP (batting average per balls in play) was a high .376, whereas Miguel Cabrera's was at .356. Think about that for a second, Miguel Cabrera's BABIP was only .008 higher than his real average, whereas Trout's was a difference of .053.

This is an indicator of hitter performance for many reasons. The BABIP shows the ability of a hitter to get a hit when a ball is put in play.

The closer the BABIP to the the real batting average, the more consistent the hitter is. Adding to this, both Cabrera and Trout had the same line drive percentage, therefore they each should have relatively the same BABIP, but, as the numbers have shown, they do not.

This is explained because of the strikeout. In Trout's career, he strikes out once every four at-bats. While Cabrera strikes out once every five at-bats.

This allows one extra at bat for a batted ball to produce, and seeing as Cabrera hits over .333, at least one in every three of these extra at-bats will result in production. Stick with Cabrera as a more consistent hitter, and the better option for the top pick.

Outfield is Deep

As aforementioned, Mike Trout is comparable to Andrew McCutchen, but that is not all. Standard leagues allow for five outfield slots, and in the MLB, there were 75 full time starting fantasy outfielders (400 or more at bats) last season, and most leagues have ten teams.

This leave means 50 outfielders will be taken and started in a given league. There were only 30 third baseman to get 400 at bats last season. The logic behind this is, outfield is deep, and third base is not. Miguel Cabrera is by far the best player at a position with scarcity.

The key to winning in drafts is getting the best players at scarce positions, and finding "gems" in a deep position with less scarcity. For example, you could draft Miguel Cabrera first overall, get your normal .333/40/125 (AVG/HR/RBI), then draft an outfielder in the middle rounds who can contribute .280/25/90. But, you cannot find a third baseman who puts up that kind of production in the fifth round.

You cannot go wrong with either player, but with the first pick in standard leagues, Miguel Cabrera is your guy.

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