After seeing the rival Los Angeles Dodgers go out and bring in Alex Wood and Mat Latos to upgrade their rotation, the San Francisco Giants have gone out and made an addition to their own rotation. San Francisco traded propsects Keury Mella and Adam Duvall to the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Mike Leake, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman was first to report it.
It's a match made in heaven for Leake and the Giants, even with the 27-year-old set to become a free agent this offseason. Leake is a groundball pitcher, his 50.1 career groundball percentage is a clear indicator of that. When he does give up fly balls, Great American Ballpark was not forgiving, demonstrated by his 13.3 percent home run to fly ball ratio the past two seasons.
Leake's 3.56 ERA has continued to improve, thanks to a dominant July, when he allowed just five runs in 36 innings. His ERA at home sits at 4.93 with a .286 opposing average allowed in 11 starts. In Leake's 10 road starts this season, he owns a 2.28 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .194 average. Over the past three seasons combined, Leake's road ERA (3.53) has been nearly a full point better than his home ERA (4.22)
No one expects Leake to be a strikeout artist, his 6.14 career K/9 is more than enough proof that isn't the type of pitcher he is. But he fits the mold for a Giants' pitcher, inducing groundballs and letting an elite infield behind make the necessary plays and get outs. Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik form one of the best defensive shortstop-second base pairings in the majors and will be there for a long time. Matt Duffy has made great improvement at the hot corner in his first real significant playing time there.
It's important to remember that Leake's .262 baBIP this season is significantly lower than his career .290 mark, but it's also reasonable to expect a reasonable drop in that mark as he enters his prime and becomes a smarter pitcher. But there are also signs that his numbers are for real, like his 3.64 xFIP matched with his 3.56 ERA. In four career starts and one relief appearance at AT&T Park, Leake has allowed just nine earned runs (four home runs) in 31 1/3 innings, good enough for a 2.59 ERA.
Not only is Leake an excellent fit for the Giants as a pitcher, thanks to his plus command and quick delivery, he also fits the profile as a quality hitter they like. He is a career .219 hitter with five home runs and 20 RBI's. On a staff that has Madison Bumgarner and Chris Heston, Leake fits right into that profile.
While Leake will become a free agent next season, there is a high probability he could return to the Giants. Giants' beat writer Andrew Baggarly wrote in May about the possibility of Leake pitching for the Giants. It's not just being in a pitcher's haven, though that does help. Leake grew up in San Diego but followed in his father's love for Willie Mays and the San Francisco Giants. While Leake can certainly explore his options in free agency, he now gets to spend the second half of the year in San Francisco and see if it indeed the perfect fit.
This rental came at a heavy cost, with San Francisco sending the 21-year-old righty has rocketed up the prospect rankings and was ranked San Francisco's top prospect by MLB.com's updated Top 100 rankings. Mella has an excellent fastball with nice movement that sits around 94-96 MPH. It pairs well with a developing curveball and changeup, setting him up to miss a lot of bats in the coming years. This season in high-A, he holds a 3.31 ERA with an 83/26 K/BB ratio over 81 2/3 innings. His upside comes as a starter, though there is also some belief he turns into an excellent reliever.
Duvall will draw plenty of attention when people look at his numbers for triple-A Sacramento this season. The 26-year-old 3B/1B leads the Pacific Coast League in home runs (26) and has a very respectable .279 average. The power is for real and at a place like Great American Ballpark, he could thrive.
The problem isn't just that he is blocked at both corners by Joey Votto and Todd Frazier, but he can't field. Duvall was dreadful at third in multiple occasions when the Giants tried him there in the majors and his defense at first wasn't much better. For a National League team, it's very possible his best role is as a power bat off the bench.
Fantasy Spin
Leake's move to AT&T Park is perfect for him and while fantasy owners love strikeouts, which he can't provide in a big way, he will rack up the quality starts at AT&T. He also has a strong lineup behind him, providing him with run support to go late into games and rack up wins. If you have Leake on your fantasy team, this is tremendous news for you.