The American League Manager of the Year award has some surprising candidates. This year the discussion includes a manager from the American League East not named Girardi, Maddon or Valentine. Up for consideration as well is a rookie manager on the verge of getting his team into the playoffs and a manager who is riding the moneyball train right into a wildcard berth.
All three candidates have yet to secure a playoff spot. Meaning the baseball writers are going to be heavily swayed by the last couple weeks of the season. Time will tell which teams qualify for the post-season; regardless, each manager would make a deserving winner.
Buck Showalter – Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are currently 1.5 games back of the Yankees for the division title heading into the final couple series of the regular season. In the ultra-competitive American League East; it is the Baltimore Orioles who have surprised many by competing with the Tampa Rays, Boston Red Sox and NY Yankees.
The Orioles are currently ranked 20th in batting average and 23rd in slugging percentage while ranking 13th in runs scored. There are three players with OWAR over 2.0, two players with double-digit stolen base totals and no one is hitting over .300. Despite all this, the Orioles are 3rd overall in homeruns.
The Orioles best pitcher; is rookie Wei-Yin Chen who has 12 wins, 150 strikeouts and leads the team in ERA at 4.11. There is no other member of the staff with a double-digit win total. Without the star power presence in the starting rotation, the bullpen has needed to be good. The bullpen has in actuality been fantastic, as the Orioles are 27-9 in one-run games.
Defensively there are only two everyday players with DWAR’s in positive numbers. The entire Baltimore Orioles outfield have negative DWAR numbers. These defensive numbers have contributed to the Orioles having a run differential of -6 on the season.
The biggest statistic and the one most responsible for the Orioles success this season is the record in extra-inning games. The Orioles have won their last 16 extra inning games. If they had even played .750 baseball in these games, the playoffs would not even be in sight.
The true value of a manager can be measured in those close one-run games and extra inning affairs. It is the small movements, substitutions and pitching matchups that put the team in a position to win. Buck Showalter has done this to perfection this season.
Robin Ventura - Chicago White Sox
Not since 2008 under the guidance of Ozzie Guillen, have the Chicago White Sox tasted the post-season. Rookie manager Robin Ventura came to the job with expectations of being competitive in the AL Central division. While the Detroit Tigers were spending big money to make-over their roster, the White Sox relied on some veteran leadership and timely hitting to keep pace in the divisional race.
Offensively the Sox are having a good year. Veterans such as: A.J Pierzynski, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rios have been solid. Dunn has clubbed out 41 homers, Rios leads the club in hits with 173 and Konerko is tops in average and slugging. The Sox are 8th overall in slugging percentage and runs scored. When the players are raking like that; ballgames are won.
The pitching staff has an identifiable ace in Chris Sale. Sale is the team leader in wins (17), ERA (2.86) and strikeouts (185). Even with the excellent efforts from this lefty, the rest of the staff is very mediocre. As a team they are middle of the pack statistically; 19th in ERA, 15th in WHIP and 14th in BAA.
Robin Ventura has done a great job transitioning the club away from the Ozzie Guillen years. Currently in first place in the AL Central with the Tigers breathing down their necks; securing a playoff spot would help Ventura’s cause here immensely.
As I see it now, Ventura just had more talent on the field that his co-mentioned nominees. Of the three managed teams, the White Sox should be better. It has been a good year, but I don’t see Ventura winning the award this year.
Bob Melvin – Oakland Athletics
No stranger to being included in season-end consideration for Manager of the Year; Melvin has shown remarkable resilience in leading the Oakland Athletics to playoff relevance. Melvin of course, won the NL award in 2007 as Manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks; who not unlike the A’s of this year, wildly exceeded expectations.
As my esteemed co-hort Vincent Frank pointed out in a recent EDraft article, the A’s were pretty much written off June 1; however, since that time an amazing 63-34 record has rejuvenated the club. For the A’s to have a two game lead in the wildcard at this point in the season is nothing short of miraculous.
There isn’t a team out there doing more with less that the Oakland A’s. Platooning players in and out of the lineup and having five rookies start in the rotation is typically a recipe for last-place. Not so with the A’s. Bob Melvin has everyone believing that they will win every game.
Ranked 18th in runs, 29th in batting average and 25th in OBP doesn’t usually equate to success either. Throw in that no one is hitting over .300, no one has 80 + RBIs, no one has 30 or more homeruns and one might get the impression that the offense in anemic.
When a team has one of the best pitching staff’s in the league, it has a tendency to compensate for a lack of offence. Ranked 5th in team ERA, 6th in WHIP and 8th in BAA; the pitching staff has kept the club in a lot of games. Individually the pitching stats are misleading, as the team leader in wins has 13 with a 3.86 ERA and the team leader for saves has 20.
Bob Melvin has done an amazing job as Manager of the club. The pitching coach Curt Young deserves a ton of credit for working with and preparing his young arms. This is going to be a close call for baseball writers, but I think that Melvin will fall short in his quest for the award.
AL MANAGER OF YEAR SHOULD BE: Bob Melvin
AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR WILL BE: Buck Showalter. It will be the record in one run games that sways voters.