One of the biggest things in fantasy baseball every year is trying to figure out who you think is going to be a bust. Although not everyone understands the definition of what exactly a “bust” is. Most people associate it with someone who is going to have a down year from previous seasons. Yes, that technically categorizes what a bust is however it could also be someone who for the stats they put up are getting drafted far higher than they should, based off of name. Below are some players from each of the American League East teams who I think are going to be busts for the 2014 season.
Matt Wieters - Catcher, Baltimore Orioles
A player who scouts raved about for years it’s time to realize that this is not one of the elite fantasy catchers as many had predicted him to be. Wieters has always been one of the best defensive catchers, but his bat has never caught up and that’s the part of the game that matters for fantasy owners.
Now in his age 28 season Wieters in his prime and as far as batting goes he leaves a lot to be desired. The batting average, slugging percentage, have both dropped each of the last three season while the strikeouts have continued increase each season. Wieters generally gets extra leeway by providing plus power from the catcher position however, last season there were five catchers within two homeruns of Wieters, and all but Arencibia had a higher batting average.
All of these numbers are screaming bust and I would recommend staying far away from Wieters.
Mike Napoli - First Base, Boston Red Sox
For years Napoli has been a solid play because he has been able to put up above average numbers as a catcher. Those days are now over as Napoli no longer has catcher eligibility and can only play first base now.
You can expect 20 homeruns again and about 85 RBI in that superstar lineup of the Red Sox but after striking out 187 times last season expect that batting average to continue to be a liability.
First Base is a star studded position with guys like Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Prince Fielder and Chris Davis thus making Napoli an average play at best in 2014. By losing catcher eligibility Napoli went from being a top five catcher to likely being outside of the top 15 first baseman. This dramatic loss in value is the definition of a bust and you would be wise to not draft Napoli as a starter on your team.
Adam Lind - First Base, Toronto Blue Jays
Arguable the Blue Jays second best hitter last season I would not expect the same out of Lind this time around. Lind is absolutely horrible vs. left handed batters and often times finds himself a seat on the bench or being pulled from a game when a lefty is on the mound.
Last season was the first time Lind batted over .255 since 2009 and also marked the first time that Lind had an OBP over .300 in consecutive season for the first time since 2008-2009. Lind is a career .269 hitter who has a perception of being a power hitter but he has only hit over 30 home runs once in his career.
Lind has also hit that age where players tend to either maintain or regress, and unfortunately for Lind last season was a bit of an outlier. Add that to the age factor and a regression is definitely in due for 2014.
Carlos Beltran - Outfield, New York Yankees
It’s never easy picking a player, on your favorite team, who you think is going to under perform but if I had to choose I would say that player is Beltran. The Yankees have not had a ton of success is recent years with injuries and despite playing a majority of the season the past two years Beltran has had trouble staying on the field for much of his career.
Beltran will be 37 this season which is going to make it that much harder to stay healthy. The potential is still there for Beltran to put up big numbers at Yankee Stadium when he’s on the field, you just need to be aware that with his age it’s just not easy to stay healthy for an entire season.
Wil Myers - Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays
The reigning rookie of the year, Wil Myers had a terrific rookie campaign for the Tampa Bay Rays after being the center piece in a deal with the Royals. There are some concerns though that lead me to think there will surely be some regression this year.
The first problem is that he struck out 24 percent of the time. It’s very rare to see a batter strike out that high of a percentage and maintain a batting average around .300. Myers also struggle to hit breaking pitches in his rookie season. Now with some tape for pitchers to look at I expect tem to attack him more with breaking pitches and force Myers to adjust.
The power is real and Myers will probably belt around 25 home runs in the upcoming season you just need to be aware it’s probably at the cost of a .260 batting average.
Outfield is also a very deep position this year and Myers ADP is right around pick 60 which means he‘s getting picked ahead of guys like Ryan Zimmerman or Josh Donaldson# who are top end guys at a much shallower position. In my opinion there is much better value to be found in round six as I would rather have one of the aforementioned third baseman or maybe an ace level pitcher like Justin Verlander, David Price or Zack Greinke who on average are going after Wil Myers.