We're roughly six weeks into the 2017 season and it's certainly been a fun one for baseball. But with so much attention focused on what is going on at the major-league level, looking at hot and cold pitchers and hitters, the minor leagues often receive less attention. But fans want to get excited about the future and get an idea of how the stars of tomorrow are performing.
So, every two weeks we'll take a look at how some of the top prospects in the minor leagues are performing and what it could mean for potential appearances in 2017, along with the prospect's long-term future. It won't all be hot starts, but it will provide a nice look at names to keep an eye on in the minor leagues.
We continue the weekly series this week with another look at some of the top prospects in baseball. So let's take a look at some of the top hitting prospects and how they've performed so far this season.
Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
MLB.com Rank: 2nd Baseball America Rank: 2nd
'17 Stats: .277/.363/.504, .386 wOBA, 139 wRC+, 5 HRs and 4 SBs
It already made sense to write about Torres given the production we've seen form the 20-year-old so far this season. But with the Yankees reveal on Sunday that Torres is going to be promoted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, it made even more sense to highlight Torres.
The young shortstop's season started off pretty rough at the plate. In his first 10 games, Torres posted a .237 batting average and a 94 wRC+, though he still walked at a decent rate with an 11.4 walk percentage that matched his strikeout percentage.
He would report some discomfort in his throwing shoulder and went for an MRI on April 18, which diagnosed him with right shoulder inflammation. New York played it safe with its top prospect and placed him on the seven-day disabled list. He would miss the next 10 days before he returned to the lineup on April 28.
Since his return from the disabled list, Torres has destroyed Double-A competition. Over his final 21 games at the Double-A level, Torres crushed five home runs, eight doubles and ripped a .954 OPS with a 161 wRC+. It became clear the drop in numbers over the first 10 games of the year were due to the shoulder and once that cleared up, his bat was advanced for the level.
Torres will be one of the youngest hitters in the league when he arrives at Triple-A for his debut. Facing a mix of prospects and veterans with MLB experience, it will provide a far greater measurement of just where the shortstop is at in his development.
A slow start out of the gate would be perfectly normal. He will need to make adjustments to the level, the faster speed of the game and greater movement and command of pitches. He'll likely remain in Triple-A Scranton for six-plus weeks and then be evaluated again.
One thing seems clear, Torres projected timetable to make it to New York has sped up and we could see him in the Yankees' lineup this season.
Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
MLB.com Rank: 12th Baseball America Rank: 12th
'17 Stats: .365/.382/.594, .431 wOBA, 165 wRC+, 3 HRs, 1 SB
Rodgers, one of three shortstops taken in the top three of the 2015 MLB Amateur Draft, continues to make a steady climb up the minor leagues. After being drafted in June, he spent 37 games at Rookie ball and showed immediate promise. He then spent all of 2016 in Low-A ball, where the 19-year-old posted a .281/.342/.480 slash with a 135 wRC+ and 19 home runs.
That success has carried over into the 2017 season for Swanson. The 20-year-old shortstop is crushing baseballs left and right in his first taste against higher competition. Through his first 102 plate appearances this season, Rodgers is the owner of a .365/.382/.594, .431 wOBA, 165 wRC+ and a 976 OPS.
Where Rockies fans and dynasty owners might feel disappointed is the power totals, with home runs making up just three of Rodgers 35 hits. While his home run/plate appearance ratio is down from 1/28.8 HR/PA ratio to 1/34 this season, the 20-year-old's HR/FB rate and FB% remain fairly consistent with only a little drop.
Rodgers' numbers have shown a drop in his walk rate, that has slowly regressed over time. After walking in 9.4 percent of his plate appearances in Rookie ball and 7.1 percent last year in Low-A to 3.9 percent this season. It's good to see Rodgers cut down his strikeout rate below 20 percent and the batting average is outstanding, but we'll want to see some more patience at the plate and an increased ability to work the count.
There's still plenty to get excited about going forward, especially his long-term power outlook with half his starts coming in Colorado. His power should come in some nice spurts in High-A and continue to fuel the dynasty hype surrounding him. While the batting average will take a hit and could finish in the low .300-.315 range, Rodgers continues to show progress and has further elevated his stock as a prospect.
Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
MLB.com Rank: 22nd Baseball America Rank: 6th
'17 Stats: .292/.356/.447, .368 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 3 HRs, 6 SBs
The second overall selection in last year's amateur draft, Senzel is off to an excellent start. The 21-year-old kicked off his second season as a professional in High-A ball, just a year after he faced NCAA pitchers on a weekly basis.
Right out of the gate, Senzel got off to an acceptable start. In his first 50 at bats, Senzel posted a .280/.333/.340 triple-slash line with a .673 OPS. He did strike out in 18.5 percent of his plate appearances and his .309 wOBA and 91 wRC+ were below average marks.
An important trait to see from young hitters is the ability to make adjustments to a level, Senzel did just that. Over his last 123 plate appearances, Senzel is the proud owner of a .297/.366/.495 slash line with an .861 OPS, .393 wOBA and 148 wRC+.
The improvements across all line are great, but a nearly 100-point jump in wOBA pops out even more. A big reason is the jump in extra-base hits Senzel has put up in his last 111 at bats than his first 50 at bats. Three of Senzel's first 14 hits went for extra bases and he didn't hit a single home run. Since then, he has almost as many doubles (13) as singles (17) and he has three home runs.
Senzel will be an exciting prospect to watch going forward. He is doing more than enough that if it keeps up, will earn him a Double-A promotion later in the year. The high batting average and solid power that made him a top selection. We could very well see Senzel in the major leagues in 2018 and long-term, he offers Anthony Rendon-like upside.
Jorge Mateo, 2B, New York Yankees
MLB.com Rank: 40th Baseball America Rank: Unranked
'17 Stats: .255/.293/.401, .317 wOBA, 97 wRC+, 3 HRs, 16 SBs
If you're looking for the next Billy Hamilton, Mateo might be the most probable candidate. The 21-year-old is in the midst of his second full season at High-A and things have followed closely along with his numbers from last season. It presents a player who seems to resemble the major-league version of Hamilton.
Following a 2016 season where he slashed .254/.306/.379 with a .319 wOBA and 99 wRC+. Mateo did add 36 steals to the picture, but the low batting average and 15 attempts caught stolen raised some concerns. Pair that with a high strikeout rate, and it led many to be concerned.
But Mateo remained viewed by most as a top-100 prospect as he entered the season. With the batting lines he currently carries, Mateo's status as a promising fantasy prospect and future starter are cloudy. His strikeout rate is up a whopping six percent to 27.8 and his walk rate is down from 6.5 to 4.7 percent this season.
But there's also room for optimism with Mateo. Before May 7, Mateo held a 28.7 percent strikeout rate and a gruesome .214/.273/.295 slash line with a .267 wOBA and 63 wRC+. Those numbers are far below average and if they held consistent, would push him far off the radar as a top prospect. Instead, we've seen an outstanding turnaround.
Over his last 47 plate appearances, Mateo's batting stats skyrocketed. He owns a .356/.348/.667 over that time with an MVP-like 1.014 OPS, 186 wRC+ and .450 wOBA. His strikeout rate still sits above 25 percent and strangely, the increased appearances on the base paths have seen him swipe only two bases.
This will be a critical year for Mateo. If he keeps up anything close to the numbers we've seen in his past 12 games, he'll climb up to Double-A and establish himself once again as a consensus top-50 prospect.
Mateo has great instincts and 80-grade speed with some decent pop to boot, together that can make a tremendous fantasy and real life asset. But if he returns to hitting sub-.250 with a low wOBA and high strikeout rate, he could be a 22-year-old with two and a half years spent in High-A, making for a cloudy future.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
MLB.com Rank: Unranked Baseball America Rank: 88th
'17 Stats: .322/.407/.664, .460 wOBA, 195 wRC+, 12 HRs
Hoskins is one of the most fascinating prospects in baseball. Back in 2015, the first baseman combined to hit just 17 home runs and 36 doubles between Low-A and High-A with a 167 wRC+, .420 wOBA and .913 OPS. Very good numbers that seemed to paint a picture of some very nice pop from the first base position with strong run production and advanced numbers.
Then Hoskins erupted into a power monster last season in Double-A. He hit 38 home runs and 26 doubles in 135 games with a sparkling 159 wRC+, .943 OPS and a .281/.377/.566 slash line. A tremendous power surge skyrocketed his status as a prospect and made him an immediate target for dynasty leagues and writers.
Hoskins paired it with a 21.2 percent strikeout rate, which is lower than expected from most power prospects in the minors. The numbers built up a hype machine that would surround Hoskins as he headed into the 2017 with hopes that he could keep it up and become a major fantasy name.
Through 42 games this season, Hoskins is on pace to further surpass his breakout numbers from 2016. With 12 home runs in 143 at bats, Hoskins' average of one home run per every 12 at bats outpaces his one home run per 13 plate appearances last season. While that may not seem like much, it makes a major difference over a season with 500-plus at bats.
The power numbers are impressive, but even greater is the cut down on swings and misses and the jump in contact numbers. His walk rate is consistent to last year, while his strikeout rate is down five percent this year. The cut down in whiffs and jump in contact rate has led to a .40 jump in his batting average.
There is no doubt the Phillies are a rebuilding team, which should mean we see Hoskins make his major-league debut fairly soon. The 24-year-old's power totals make for crazy fantasy optimism, but he carries a 60-power grade and his game is still fairly swing-and-miss heavy. His numbers are worse versus southpaws, so that will be something to track as the year goes on.