Rookie Fantasy Preview: Francis Martes, SP, Houston Astros

By Matt Johnson on Thursday, June 8th 2017
Rookie Fantasy Preview: Francis Martes, SP, Houston Astros

As baseball fans, we all get excited about prospects. So much tantalizing potential and the hope of baseball's next star player. When a player gets called up, everyone gets excited about what could be on the way and if greatness is arriving.

On Thursday, the Houston Astros promoted one of the most tantalizing prospects in all of baseball.21-year-old righty Francis Martes is coming up to the big leagues to make his MLB debut this week. But while most starting pitches in Triple-A come up for spot starts or slide into a team's rotation, Houston plans to ease Martes into the majors in a bullpen role. While it's not the role fantasy owners or Astros fans may have hoped for, Martes' electric stuff could be fun to watch coming out of the bullpen.

Now, let's take a look at how Martes fared in his first taste of Triple-A and what makes him one of the most electric pitching prospects in baseball.

2017 Stats:

Martes entered the 2017 season with plenty of momentum after a strong season in Double-A. In 123 1/3 innings pitched for the Corpus Christi Hooks, Martes shined with a 16 percent K-BB rate, 25 percent strikeout rate and a 2.73 FIP. He put up the type of season you could only dream of from a 20-year-old at the Double-A level. While walks continued to be an issue, 3.38 BB/9 and 9.0 walk percentage, the numbers could be accepted with the results and the number of bats he still missed.

He earned the promotion to Triple-A Fresno this season, but the results haven't shown it thus far. The young right-handed pitcher's erratic command has been his biggest issue this season and is the leading issue for the awful numbers. Across 32 1/3 innings as a starting pitcher for the Fresno Grizzlies this season, Martes  walked 28 batters.

Martes walk rates have not looked good as a result. The wild command leads to plenty of strikeouts and a 10.58 K/9, but his K-BB percentage sits at an awful 6.1 percent. The righty walked over 17 percent of the batters he faced this season thus far, an alarming number even after you factor in age and the higher level of competition. Across his eight starts this season, Martes walked three-plus batters in seven of them.

The high walk rates are a concern, especially because they result in him not being able to pitch deeper into games. He's made it past the fifth inning once this season and made it fewer than four innings in four of his starts. Getting worked up into high pitch counts is one thing, but the amount of stress it puts on his young arm by always having base runners on and making the innings he pitches in more stressful is even worse for him. 

As a result of the command woes paired with the usual hits, Martes' WHIP is inflated all the way up to 2.10. With that, comes a 5.29 ERA, 5.95 FIP and a 5.53 expected FIP (xFIP). Martes is giving up walks and home runs, 1.39 HR/9, all come from the erratic command and it's something that will desperately need to improve before he can become a starter at the major-league level.

Obviously this isn't the season the Astros organization hoped for. But Martes still flashes dynamite, mouthwatering stuff on the mound and it's why Houston made the call to bring him up and use it out of the bullpen.

Scouting Report

While Martes may not have prototypical height at 6'0", he more than makes up for it with the rest of his raw attributes. A good athlete who has blossomed from a young teenager throwing a fastball in the mid-80s into a hard-throwing righty that can touch 100 miles per hour and usually sits near 93-96 miles per hour regularly.

The fire on the pitch and his command of it, when he's got it down, allows him to miss bats regularly with the four seamer. While the command of it this year is more erratic, his athleticism and past show he can control it and it becomes a plus-plus pitch when that happens.

Martes pairs the heater with a developing curveballs that flashes plus-plus ability as well. The power curveball sits in the mid 80s with good diving ability that can frustrate opposing hitters when the command is on. It can work to both sides of the plate with sink when it's on and when he works it in heavily with the four-seamer, makes for a 1-2 punch that racks up the strikeouts quickly.

When you have two potential plus-plus pitches that can generate swings and misses or outs in general, you've already got the makings of a future ace. Martes' changeup is the third pitch he needs to work on and the one that will greatly depend on his command of it and other pitches to improve. It certainly doesn't need to be a plus-plus or even plus pitch, he can excel if it's just an above-average changeup for the MLB level. Given how hard he throws it and the continued improvements it showed in 2016 and at times in 2017, there's no doubt it offers the potential to be a good pitch.

When you pair all of this together, you've got the makings of a future ace who could slot right along with Dallas Keuchel and give Houston two aces in its rotation. What makes Martes even more captivating is how young he is. He may have struggled at Triple-A, but he was one of the youngest players at the level and faced a lot of veteran hitters with big-league experience.

As he gains his own experience, learns from veteran pitchers in Houston and improves his command, Martes could become baseball's next ace.

2017 Fantasy Outlook

The closer job is fully locked up by Ken Giles in Houston and there are no job openings for a set-up man. So Martes won't carry fantasy appeal for the time being. Houston wants to bring him along in a bullpen role and it will provide a great experience for him with the opportunity to learn from MLB coaches and pitchers, all while testing his stuff against some of the best hitters in the game.

While Martes stay in Houston could be short given they are only in need of emergency bullpen hope for a few days, fans should seek out the opportunity to watch him pitch. While it will be in a different role this time, it will give them the chance to potentially see one of the game's future aces take the mound and use his lightning stuff to frustrate some hitters who have never faced him before.

While fantasy owners will have to leave him on the waiver wire in non-keeper leagues, he should still be a fun watch for baseball fans. If you play in dynasty leagues, now is the time to try and buy low on Martes. Sell the other owner on the fact he is struggling in Triple-A and only pitching in a bullpen role right now for Houston. Try and land him then enjoy the rewards that come in a few short years.

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Scores

Bottom of 9th
Cardinals
3
Mets
14
Bottom of 9th
Twins
3
Yankees
17
Reds
1
Angels
3
Cubs
2
Guardians
0
Bottom of 4th
Giants
2
Dodgers
2
Bottom of 4th
White Sox
2
Rangers
1
Rockies
0
Padres
1
Brewers
2
White Sox
2
Bottom of 3rd
Royals
4
Athletics
3
6:05 PM ET
Nationals
-
Astros
-
8:10 PM ET
Mariners
-
Diamondbacks
-
Pirates
6
Orioles
1
Rays
6
Blue Jays
5
Tigers
16
Phillies
8
Braves
14
Red Sox
4
Phillies
5
Marlins
2
Orioles
6
Tigers
5
Astros
0
Mets
5
Cardinals
9
Astros
4
Red Sox
7
Rays
5
Pirates
6
Twins
4
Phillies
7
Nationals
3
Yankees
7
Braves
3
Blue Jays
7
Marlins
8
Reds
11
Padres
10
Giants
3
Rockies
11
Athletics
7
Rangers
3
Dodgers
7
White Sox
6
Rangers
1
Brewers
5
Angels
5
Cubs
4
Diamondbacks
13
Royals
10
Mariners
8
Guardians
7
1:05 PM ET
Astros
-
Pirates
-
1:05 PM ET
Rays
-
Tigers
-
1:05 PM ET
Red Sox
-
Twins
-
1:05 PM ET
Orioles
-
Braves
-
1:05 PM ET
Yankees
-
Blue Jays
-
1:07 PM ET
Blue Jays
-
Phillies
-
1:10 PM ET
Mets
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Nationals
-
1:10 PM ET
Marlins
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Cardinals
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3:05 PM ET
Dodgers
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Cubs
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3:05 PM ET
Athletics
-
Giants
-
3:05 PM ET
Rangers
-
Dodgers
-
3:05 PM ET
Guardians
-
White Sox
-
3:10 PM ET
Angels
-
Diamondbacks
-
3:10 PM ET
Rockies
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Royals
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3:10 PM ET
Padres
-
Mariners
-
3:10 PM ET
Brewers
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Reds
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