Rookie Fantasy Preview: Jacob Faria, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

By Matt Johnson on Tuesday, June 6th 2017
Rookie Fantasy Preview: Jacob Faria, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

As baseball fans, we all get excited about prospects. So much tantalizing potential and the hope of baseball's next star player. When a player gets called up, everyone gets excited about what could be on the way and if greatness is arriving.

The Tampa Bay Rays boast one of the richest farm systems in baseball and on Tuesday we learned that one of their top prospects will make his MLB debut on Wednesday. Right-handed starting pitcher Jacob Faria reportedly received the call on Tuesday and will take the mound for the first time in an MLB stadium for Wednesday's game against the Chicago White Sox. Faria, 23, put up fantastic numbers at Triple-A Durham and earned the promotion for a team that needed an extra starting pitcher this week.

Now, let's take a look at the strong numbers Faria put up in the minors this season and how he profiles going forward.

2017 Stats:

Faria entered the 2017 season amongst a deep and talented Triple-A Durham rotation. While Faria wasn't the highest-rated prospect in Tampa Bay's system, he earned the nod as Durham's ace and opening day starter. He's earned that title and proven he is more than worthy of a promotion this season. When you look at Faria's numbers on the year, it makes you wonder how he wasn't regarded higher as a prospect before this.

His 2017 season got off to a rough start, especially his first three starts. Across 14 2/3 innings pitched, Faria surrendered 12 hits, seven walks, three home runs and allowed three home runs. He flashed command inconsistently with a four-walk outing in between a two-home run outing and a one-walk outing. If Faria wanted a promotion any time soon, he would have to start missing more bats and keep the walk percentage below 11 percent.

Since that three-start sample, we've seen some outstanding stretches from Faria. Across his last eight starts, the righty allowed just 12 earned runs and 32 hits across 44 innings pitched.  He has kept the ball in the yard well with just four home runs allowed over that time and the 2.45 ERA sparkles with excellence. But the real standout numbers come from Faria's increased ability to miss bats. He struck out 35.2 percent of the batters he faced in that time. To put that number in proper perspective, Chris Sale holds a 36.4 percent strikeout rate this season, which significantly outweighs Max Scherzer in second place at 33.6 percent.

There are two numbers that make Faria's strikeout rates even more impressive. First, his command over his last eight starts is exceptional given the strikeout rate. Across Faria's last 44 innings, his walk percentage sits at a lowly 8.5 percent. For any starting pitcher to post a strikeout rate over 30 percent is one thing, but to do it with a walk percentage under nine percent is another. This season in the majors, only two starts with a 30-plus K% have a sub-nine BB% (More on walks, K-BB%).

Second, Faria's strikeouts are even more impressive when you factor in he leads Triple-A starters with a 15.4 swinging strike rate. It's a full percentage point higher than the second-best pitcher and nearly two percent higher than fellow Durham starter Brent Honeywell. Triple-A is still a high level of play with a mix of veterans, top prospects and another batters who have had MLB experience, Faria is making them look ridiculous nearly every time he takes the mound.

While his 3.07 ERA is certainly strong and lower when you take out the first three starts, Faria's xFIP speaks even higher to his abilities. The 23-year-old's 2.56 xFIP is the best at the Triple-A level and just further demonstrates how exceptional he has pitched this season. Combine all of these factors and it's easy to see why the Rays immediately called him up the minute they needed an extra starting pitcher.

Scouting Report:

Faria's numbers at Triple-A Durham would make you think he was this heralded, elite prospect. But before the 2017 season began, he couldn't be found on any major Top-100 prospect list. Even on Minor League Ball's top-200 prospect list sheet, you wouldn't find Faria's name until you got to 167. MLB.com ranked Faria as Tampa Bay's ninth-best prospect, Baseball America ranked him eighth and FanGraphs ranked him 15th.

The general consensus on Faria's repertoire left plenty to be desired. A 55-grade fastball, 45-grade curveball and slider left plenty to be desired. The one pitch he received love for was the changeup with a 60-grade and seen as the pitch that when mixed with others.

in MLB.com's profile, Faria's pitching arsenal would lead many fantasy owners to look elsewhere. "Tall and athletic, Faria creates excellent plane toward the plate and works down in the zone with his fastball, sitting at 92-94 mph and bumping higher at times. His mid 80s changeup flashes plus and is thrown with fastball-like arm speed, making it a weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate. Faria's 12-to-6 curveball is below average, but he can throw it for a strike and mix it effectively, and the same goes for his short, low-80s slider."

Faria's 2016 season built into that scouting report. He showed solid strikeout numbers, especially in Double-A, but walks were a persistent problem and he allowed a lot of hits. People wanted to see him take a step forward and have the fastball return to the mid-90s, rather than the high-80s and touch in the 90s like it did in the second half of 2016.

Baseball America's Josh Norris wrote about Faria's early season breakthrough and focused on a change in delivery with using his lower half more in the motion. The story includes quotes from Faria and discusses the changes Faria underwent because of the Triple-A coaching staff and how it has helped him greatly so far this season.

The results are certainly self-evident. Faria's fastball is back up into the 90s consistently with a frequent touch of the mid 90s, while his off-speed pitches have improved as well. With it, he is turning in the best outings of his career and his pitching lines each start continue to demonstrate it. While he didn't make Baseball America's updated top-100 prospects list in May, he very well could jump into it when the midseason shake up comes.

2017 Fantasy Outlook

Faria's promotion is exciting and well earned, but he may not be up for extended time. Tampa Bay will play a double header on Saturday and needed the extra starter so they could push back some guys and give them the extra rest. So this very well could be a one-start appearance for the righty before he is sent back down to Durham.

The matchup against the Chicago White Sox isn't ideal, but it's still a solid opportunity. While Chicago's lineup has fared extremely well against southpaws this season, it holds the third-worst wRC+ (81), wOBA (.294) and OPS (.680) versus right-handed pitchers this season. White Sox hitters also struck out in 23.2 percent of plate appearances versus righties, which plays in Faria's favor.

If a DFS owner is feeling risky, they could make Faria their second, value pitcher for Wednesday's slate. The numbers play in Faria's favor and he'll also be pitching at the more pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. If Faria can turn in a quality start in this outing, then perhaps Tampa Bay could bump Erasmo Ramirez from the rotation back into the bullpen.

But for now, season-long owners should wait to add him until we know he'll be up for an extended period of time. He may not be on Honeywell's level as a prospect, but he is ahead of him in line when the Rays need to call up a starter from Durham.

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Scores

Bottom of 6th
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Orioles
1
Cardinals
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Mets
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Rays
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Blue Jays
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Phillies
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Braves
14
Red Sox
4
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5
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Twins
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Yankees
8
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Brewers
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White Sox
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Nationals
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Mariners
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Diamondbacks
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Orioles
6
Tigers
5
Astros
0
Mets
5
Cardinals
9
Astros
4
Red Sox
7
Rays
5
Pirates
6
Twins
4
Phillies
7
Nationals
3
Yankees
7
Braves
3
Blue Jays
7
Marlins
8
Reds
11
Padres
10
Giants
3
Rockies
11
Athletics
7
Rangers
3
Dodgers
7
White Sox
6
Rangers
1
Brewers
5
Angels
5
Cubs
4
Diamondbacks
13
Royals
10
Mariners
8
Guardians
7
1:05 PM ET
Astros
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Pirates
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1:05 PM ET
Rays
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Tigers
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1:05 PM ET
Red Sox
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Twins
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1:05 PM ET
Orioles
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Braves
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1:05 PM ET
Yankees
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Blue Jays
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1:07 PM ET
Blue Jays
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Phillies
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1:10 PM ET
Mets
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Nationals
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1:10 PM ET
Marlins
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Cardinals
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3:05 PM ET
Dodgers
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Cubs
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3:05 PM ET
Athletics
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Giants
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3:05 PM ET
Rangers
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Dodgers
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3:05 PM ET
Guardians
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White Sox
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3:10 PM ET
Angels
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Diamondbacks
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3:10 PM ET
Rockies
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Royals
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3:10 PM ET
Padres
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Mariners
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3:10 PM ET
Brewers
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Reds
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