We can get a good idea about how much success a specific player is having based soley on his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Barring a dramatically high strikeout rate, players with higher BABIP's will normally project as high-average hitters who can consistently provide you the necessary numbers on a daily basis.
In what will be a series of articles here at eDraft, we are going to use our sabermetrics and advanced statistics to help fantasy baseball owners understand what players project to be the most consistent moving forward this season.
We begin with BABIP and the top-five MLB players in that category this season.
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Tyler Flowers, Catcher, Chicago White Sox | Games | Hits | AVG | HR | RBI | SO Rate | BABIP |
| 43 | 43 | .312 | 3 | 17 | 33.1 | .471 |
Flowers has been surprisingly productive thus far this season. Prior to what has been a breakout campaign, Flowers' highest single-season batting average was .213 back in 2012. How has Flowers been able to turn the corner?
Interestingly enough, it has very little to do with Flowers' plate discipline. He's striking out one third of the time he comes to the plate in 2014, compared to 34 percent in 2013 and 36 percent in 2012. These are some alarmingly high numbers. If Flowers is able to lower his strikeout rate moving forward, he'd be an instant fantasy star. Over 47 percent of the time Chicago's catcher puts the ball in play, he gets a hit. That's the highest numbers for qualified players in MLB. Until then, he's nothing more than a solid backup option. You simply cannot rely on someone who will consistently strikes out multiple times per game.
Yasiel Puig, Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers | Games | Hits | AVG | HR | RBI | SO Rate | BABIP |
| 43 | 57 | .343 | 10 | 38 | 19.4 | .402 |
Puig is quickly becoming one of the best players in baseball, and these stats shown above prove that to a T. While he's collecting a hit over 40 percent of the time he puts a ball in play, Puig is only strking out less than one fifth of the time he comes to the plate. That is a ridiculous split right there, and is obviously the reason that this second-year phenom is flirting with a .350 batting average.
Puig has collected a hit in all but eight games he started this season, including in all but one game this month. If it's consistency you're looking for, Puig is your man. Spectacular as they come, he's now becoming a great fantasy play game in, game out.
Carlos Gomez, Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers | Games | Hits | AVG | HR | RBI | SO Rate | BABIP |
| 43 | 54 | .284 | 10 | 25 | 26.7 | .400 |
Gomez has collected 17 hits in his last 10 games, even after missing about a week with an injury during that span. While his near 27 percent strikeout rate is the highest of what has now become a great career, Gomez is also getting on base nearly 39 percent of the time he take an at-bat, including a 40 percent BABIP. That's utterly ridiculous.
We can expect Gomez' strikeout rate to drop as the season progresses. Once that happens, his level of consistency on a daily basis will go up a great deal. A lower-round pick than most elite options out there, Gomez figures to finish in the top-15 among fantasy outfielders. That's not too shabby. As it is, he's currently third among all players in BABIP.
Shin-Soo Choo, Outfielder, Texas Rangers | Games | Hits | AVG | HR | RBI | SO Rate | BABIP |
| 43 | 46 | .309 | 6 | 15 | 23.2 | .390 |
One of the few bright spots in what has been an injury-plagued campaign for the Rangers, Choo has continued to prove that he's among the most natural hitters in all of baseball. While his RBI numbers are nowhere near where fantasy owners want them, all Choo has done this season is get on base. In addition to the fourth-highest BABIP, Choo possesses the fifth-highest on-base percentage in baseball at .432.
He's averaging more than a hit and about 0.63 walks per game. Added together, Choo is reaching base 1.7 per game this season. Talk about some major under-the-radar production here.
Marlon Byrd, Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies | Games | Hits | AVG | HR | RBI | SO Rate | BABIP |
| 45 | 51 | .291 | 6 | 29 | 28.0 | .390 |
There were a ton of skeptics out there when the Phillies signed Byrd to a two-year, $16 million contract. Those skeptics have been quieted about a quarter of the way through the 2014 season. The veteran may be strking out more than a quarter of the time he steps to the plate, but he also boasts the fifth-highest BABIP and is reaching base 33 percent of the time. He's collecting well over one hit per game and is on pace for 104 RBI's. This is definitely someone you want to buy low on, guys/gals.