Just like that, the first month of the MLB season is in the books. It seemed like just yesterday spring training began, now we're already 1/6 of the way through the season. It can be sad in some ways, but it also gives us a chance to look at some of the eye-popping and noteworthy stats. So let's take a look at some of those stats and what significance they have.
1.345: That mark led baseball in OPS in the month of April. If I asked you to guess who had it before the year started, the most popular guesses might have been Mike Trout, Bryce Harper or Josh Donaldson. Then if I told you it belonged to a Washington Nationals hitter, we all would have locked in on Harper or maybe even Daniel Murphy.
Instead, it's 32-year-old first baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Yes, the same Zimmerman who killed fantasy owners due to injuries and missing large chunks of the season the past three years. Past the point where you'd ever expect some resurgence or breakout year, but then he showed up in April and crushed the baseball. Zimmerman finished the month with 10 home runs, 29 RBIs and an outstanding 244 wRC+.
It's fair to say Zimmerman won't keep this up, especially with a HR/FB rate at 40 percent and an equally unsustainable .448 BABIP. Those numbers are more than double his career lines, so regression will hit hard. Fantasy owners also have to factor in injuries, because frankly Zimmerman's body just can't hold up to an everyday job for an entire season. We'll enjoy this moment and Zimmerman's total line should still look solid, but age and injuries never lie.
37.2% - You expect three-outcome hitters to be amongst the top in strikeout rates, it's why they get the three-outcome label. What you don't expect to see is a speedy, defensive center fielder with one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors. But it could have been even higher if not for a little hot streak he went on before the last week of April.
From April 3 - 24, Buxton made 62 trips to the plate and he struck out an incomprehensible 28 times. These weren't just pitches he watched go by or getting squeezed in the zone, Buxton registered a 19.5 swinging strike rate over that time. If the Twins had known this would happen, they could have put a wind turbine in the stadium next to home plate and generated some energy for the city.
The hype and potential that once led many to believe Buxton could become the next Trout and be the next generational star. But, that hasn't quite happened. If there is good news, it's Buxton's past week gives room for optimism.
The swinging strike rate that sat at 20 is only 3.1 percent and his contact rate is way up as well. Obviously it's a small sample size, but at least it shines some light on what seemed like a very dark future. That said, we saw some glimpses of hope in September and that seemed to be a mirage after April. Ultimately, Buxton almost certainly will never come close to the player we hoped he could be. But if he can cut down on the strikeout rate, he could be a light version of Kevin Kiermaier.
33.1% - Buckle up friends, because that number you see is Chris Sale's K-BB% this season. While it might be early, just keep in mind that no qualified pitcher surpassed a 30-plus K-BB% since Randy Johnson in 2001, when he struck out 372 batters and walked just 71. If Sale's mark held over the rest of the season, it would match Pedro Martinez's mark from 1999 when he 313 batters and only walked 37.
In the past 40 years of baseball's history, we've only seen it happen three times. Martinez did it in '99 and '00, while Johnson followed in Martinez's footsteps by doing it in '01. Sale is on a historical pace right now with his 52/5 K/BB ratio in 37 2/3 innings pitched and his 17 percent swinging strike rate further backs up how dominant Sale's stuff and command has been.
Maybe this doesn't keep up, in fact it probably won't. But tune into a Boston Red Sox game the next time Sale takes the mound, because the things he is doing with that baseball and its movement and location right now are out of this world. If he does keep it up, you'll be able to tell your children and grandchildren that you witnessed a part of rare baseball history. To which they'll laugh at the old data we use and we'll be the old timers, but it's still worth telling them.
1.17 - We've always wanted to see the magic. Unfortunately, it evaded us for so long because of arm injuries. But this April, and hopefully for the rest of the season, we witnessed the dazzling display of James Paxton on the mound. His 1.17 FIP this past month reflects on just some of the amazing things he did in April. If you want a pitcher who misses bats and shows great command of the strike zone, you have it with Paxton and his 39/6 K/BB rate in 32 1/3 innings.
Maybe you want to go further, see a pitcher who you can know will keep the ball in the yard. I present Paxton to you with a resume that includes no home runs allowed to 124 batters faced and no triples. When hitters do put the ball in play and get on base, it's almost always a single. Of the 21 hits Paxton allowed in April, 16 are singles.
The 28-year-old is pitching out of this world and the fastball, cutter, curveball combo is just tearing batters apart. Opposing hitters are only making contact on 48.1 percent of the pitches he throws and he is generating a swinging strike rate near 20 percent. To top off it all off, Paxton posted a 64.5 first-pitch strike percentage and posted the ninth-best xFIP in April. Simply put, healthy Paxton is the Seattle Mariners ace and he is someone every should watch at least once in May.
3.14 - When you throw a fastball that hangs around 84 miles per hour, plenty of major league hitters will get the chance to make great contact off of it. While the pitch may not carry a lot of power, they can track it if it lacks movement and that speed and lands anywhere in the sweet spot of their zone. This is what Jered Weaver deals with every time he takes the mound and it's demonstrated by his startling 3.14 HR/9 rate.
If you're wondering who the next closest non-Coors Field pitcher is, it's Tom Koehler at 2.52. So there's a sizable gap between the two and it's also important to consider there hasn't been a HR/9 above 2.0 amongst qualified starting pitchers since Bronson Arroyo registered a 2.08 HR/9 in 2011. A two-plus HR/9 only happened a handful of times over the past 50 years, we've never seen it above 2.7 in 50-plus years.
With 10 home runs allowed in 28 2/3 innings, Weaver is on pace to do something we've never seen before. It's not a pretty statistic, but it's something you really can't look away from because you're so captured by it and want to witness it happen. Of course, the number will certainly come down given Weaver's incredible misfortune with a 28.6 HR/FB rate, but consider this.
While Weaver's been unlucky with the fly balls leading to home runs, his fly ball percentage is down 10 percent from his career line. If numbers return close to norm and that HR/FB rate sits in the low 20s, we just might see that special mark happen.
1-2 - This is Sale's record on the year. This is also a rant where I tell you that using wins and losses as a player statistics remains one of the dumbest things in baseball and represents an ancient part of its history that needs to go away. Wins and losses matter for the team because nine-plus players and their manager decide the outcome of the game, not one individual player.
A pitcher should not be handed a loss on his stat sheet because he allowed two runs in eight innings and his teammates couldn't put a run on the board. Nor should a pitcher that allows seven runs in five innings receive a win because his team put up 12 runs. The use of wins and losses as a player statistic make managers keep their pitchers out longer than they should in pursuit of a "win" in the stat column, even though it could hurt the team's chances to win the game that impacts the standings.
Simply put, we need to push for wins and losses to be thrown out as a statistic for pitchers. Wherever you see it, scoff at it and encourage others to join you.