One of the more interesting deals of the Major League Baseball offseason was executed on Sunday in which the Minnesota Twins signed former New York Yankees starting pitcher Phil Hughes to a three-year $24 million deal. And no, this is not a joke. The Twins have committed themselves to rounding up worthwhile starting pitchers in an attempt to bulk up their roster for the 2014 season and beyond. Former Miami Marlin and Los Angeles Dodgers Ricky Nolasco was signed this last week to the tune of four years at $49 million. While some applaud the Twins’ effort to spend money on players this offseason, the elephant in the room which has beguiled critics and writers alike is, why Hughes and why for so much?
In seven years with the Yankees Hughes has gone 56-50 with a 4.54 ERA and 656 strikeouts and 2-4 with the same ERA and 38 strikeouts in the postseason (18 games, 39 2/3 innings). Nothing about these numbers screams “I’m worth at least $8 million a year,” so perhaps there some underlining that everyone is missing. For starters, look at his minor league stats. From 2004 through 2009 and then again in 2011 Hughes pitched in 68 games and started 65 of them going a total of 344 innings with 385 strikeouts.
Two things you can derive from that is he averaged at least five innings per game and averaged at least one strikeout per inning. On top of that, prior to the 2007 season, when Hughes was 21-7 with a 2.17 ERA, Baseball America had him rated as the Yankees’ #1 prospect and the #4 prospect in all of baseball on top of having one of the best curveballs and best control in the Yankee system. Seriously, look it up. There was nothing to indicate that Hughes wasn’t going to be a stud. Buuuuuuuuut he went 5-7 with a 5.54 ERA which included a stint on the DL with an oblique strain, a cracked rib and a discovery that he was nearsighted in 2008.
Every appearance he made in those two seasons came as a starter (21). Not wanting him to over exert himself, the Yankees moved Hughes to the bullpen in 2009 while making seven spot starts in 51 total appearances on the season. Hughes ended up going 8-3 with a 3.03 ERA and 96 strikeouts.
With confidence restored, the Yankees moved Hughes back to his starting role where he went 18-8 with a 4.19 ERA and 146 strikeouts in 2010. That year was very interesting for two reasons: Hughes had the highest run support in the Majors (6.48 runs per game) and he was the starting pitcher for Games Two and Six of the American League Championship Series against the Texas Rangers, both games of which he allowed at least four runs and was tagged with the losses as the Yankees were eliminated.
But since it was an arbitration year his salary boosted up to $2.7 million for the 2011 season behind his solid numbers.
The way Hughes’s season ended in 2010 should have been an indicator of how things were going to go in 2011 as his four-seam fastball peaked at 92 miles per hour in the midst of a 0-1 start with a 13.94 ERA in his first three starts. Hughes was immediately thrown on the DL and tagged with dead arm syndrome which later was revealed to be caused by inflammation in his pitching shoulder (right). Upon his return he had some shaky starts and was moved to the bullpen before the end of the season.
When the Yankees went up against the Detroit Tigers in the American league Division Series Hughes was brought along only in relief, and actually pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings between Games Four and Five before the Yankees were again eliminated. Hughes was once again up for arbitration, but the Yankees opted to bring back Hughes again on their own terms for one year at $3.2 million. Most were skeptical, but Hughes surprised everyone by winning 16 games with a 4.23 ERA and a career-high 165 strikeouts. Hughes ended up pitching a solid one-run game against the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS and got off to a decent start against the Tigers in Game Three of the ALCS before having to leave due to back stiffness after only three innings with one run allowed. With another decent season under his belt the Yankees signed him to yet another one-year deal, this time worth $7.15 million.
That number may seem kind of random, but it’s really not. From 2007, his rookie year, through the end of the 2012 Hughes made exactly $7.161 million. In 2013 he stood to make everything he made in his first five seasons plus $11,000 in just one season. When you break it down you can easily say that the Yankees had a lot riding on how he would perform in 2013. Unfortunately for everybody 2013 equaled a career-worst season: 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 29 starts (145 2/3 innings). With the Yankees out of playoff contention and the faith in their once top-level prospect shattered, they decided to let Hughes go to free agency on October 31st.
It only took 31 days for the Twins to sign Hughes even though they had been keeping an eye on his stats for well over the six years he played in the Majors. The $8 million per season that they elected to pay him is undoubtedly coming as a result of the contract he played under while with the Yankees in 2013 which could most certainly go down as own of the biggest soon-to-be free agent trollings in recent years especially since Hughes has been injured twice, neither time of which required surgery.
Over the years though, Hughes compiled a 16-11 record with a 3.80 ERA and 149 strikeouts in 37 games (30 starts) against the AL Central (excluding the Twins).
These numbers are the best he’s had for his career against any division in the AL, but more importantly his numbers against the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians are what really shine as he a career ERA of 2.61 or lower against both.
Only against the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks has he posted lower.
There is something to be said about this move, it’s bold. The Twins have never been a team to go all out and spend money on players who didn’t come up through their farm system so it’s hard to say how this one will pan out. This deal is the second biggest they’ve ever given a player outside of their organization.
The current title holder is Nolasco. While it was definitely a necessary move, the odds are shaky at best for the Twins and Hughes. If his numbers above hold like the Twins hope, expect to see the Hughes that Baseball America thought so highly of in 2006. If not, don’t expect to see Hughes around the clubhouse after the second year no matter what the buyout is.