After two full weeks in the MLB season, there are a few surprises so far. Some teams have gotten off to fast starts and some teams have under-achieved. Some general managers made under-rated moves that may have affected their team in a much bigger way than people thought. Boston, Detroit, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Colorado are all first place teams, but only half of them were expected to be there. So, who is the most vulnerable to being upended from first place by seasons end?
AL East – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox made a lot of moves in the offseason. They dumped payroll last season during the year, when they sent three of their highest paid players to the Los Angeles Dodgers. A lot of experts thought that the Red Sox were either preparing to go after more big time players in the offseason, or that they were going into full rebuilding mode. The Red Sox did not do either, though.
Instead of going out and spending money crazily, like they have in the past; the Red Sox focused on adding solid players around the core of the current roster. Adding veterans in Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, and Stephen Drew may not have lived up to the flashy moves of the past, but it did add solid defense and leadership that this team needed in the club house.
This fast start doesn’t mean they will be there at the end, though. The AL East may be one of the toughest divisions in baseball with the Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays all looking to step forward, with the Rays being the only team that hasn’t added talent to make a run. Even with those three teams looking to step up and take the spot, the Red Sox hot start has not only given them an early lead, but it has given them early wins in the division. They could easily not be in this position when the season ends, but this success is not a fluke.
AL Central – Detroit Tigers
What can you say about the Tigers? They struggled slightly last year when they were expected to win it all, but in the end they were representing the AL in the World Series. This year they maintained the status quo that got them to the championship game last year and have the return of slugger Victor Martinez. While Martinez hasn’t returned to form immediately, he is making an impact. He still strikes fear into opposing teams, no longer allowing them to just pitch around Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera.
Of all of the six teams in first place, the Tigers have the least to worry about. The White Sox do not appear to have recovered from their late season collapse in 2012. The revamped Cleveland Indians are not clicking on offense and are severely thin at starting pitcher, and it is hard to win games when the offense struggles. Expect the Tigers to be representing the AL Central in the playoffs for the third straight year.
AL West – Oakland Athletics
Of all of the AL teams in first, the Athletics may be the most vulnerable. The A’s have shot out to an early lead, but the West is the deepest division in all of baseball, and that’s what makes them vulnerable. The A’s have gotten to this point by doing exactly what they were supposed to do, sweeping their first two series against the lowly Houston Astros and sweeping a struggling Los Angeles Angels team. Winning division games is what’s going to help them repeat as AL West Champions, but that will, by no means, be as easy as they’ve made it look so far.
This is a deep division and even though the Angels are struggling mightily, they showed last season that they can make a late season run when they overcame a very poor April start and still ended up with 89 wins. Not to be forgotten are last year’s wild card team, the Texas Rangers, who may have lost Josh Hamilton, but they have added veterans in A.J. Pierzynski, and Lance Berkman. They are also deep enough in their farm system that they have enough guys ready to come up and make in impact on the team this year. Last, but not least are the Seattle Mariners, who added as much power as anyone in the offseason, but need to get their starting pitching straightened out if they are going to make a serious run at the division title.
Even in the deepest division in baseball, you shouldn’t be surprised if the A’s are still in this position when the season ends. They have the best overall pitching staff in the division, and after last year's experience, these young kids know what it takes to reach the top. Even though they may be the most vulnerable team out of the AL leaders, with three strong teams chasing them, do not count them out. The A’s could surprise us all again, and there is always a chance they nab one of the two wild card spots.
NL East – Atlanta Braves
A lot of people thought the Atlanta Braves had made a whole lot of moves in the offseason just to remain in the wild card spot because the Washington Nationals were still far more talented. The Braves have come out to prove everyone wrong, sweeping the defending division champion Nationals in the process.
A rejuvenated Justin Upton has helped lead the Braves off to their hot start. The younger of the Upton brothers is the early leader in the league in HRs and doesn’t seem to be ready to slow down. Upton isn’t the backbone of the team, though. This team is built on pitching, and the pitching has been stellar. The Braves’ pitching staff is leading the league with a 1.83 ERA and is anchored at the back end of the bullpen by Craig Kimbrel with six saves, already, on the season. The Braves have pulled all of this off with two of their biggest stars, outfielders Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton, struggling to get started on offense this year.
If the Braves can maintain this pace, they could not only win the division, but be the favorite to represent the NL in the World Series. While the Nationals have the talent to catch up to the Braves and slow them down, expect the roles to be reversed this year in the NL East with the Braves winning the division and the Nationals left to fight for a wild card slot.
NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals
In what could be another division that is a two team race, the St. Louis Cardinals have gotten off to an early lead. The NL Central is not very deep. After the Cincinnati Reds and the Cardinals, there is a huge drop off. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers are good teams, but they haven’t proven that they can take the next step to the playoffs and both have major holes on their rosters.
So, in a two team race, how vulnerable can the Cardinals really be? Not very, because even though the Reds are the more superior team of the two, the Cardinals have a good mix of up-and-coming stars and proven veterans. Even though it is widely expected that the Reds will win this division, it should not surprise anyone if the Cardinals win it, or take one of the Wild Card spots at worst.
NL West – Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are the biggest surprise this season. They had a lot of talent on offense last season, and the return of Troy Tulowiski this year has helped them get off to this torrid start, but the 4.19 team ERA is scary, and by far the worst of any of the first place teams. They have the fact that they’ve swept division rivals and defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants under their belts, but is that enough to trust that they’ll be there in October?
While the Red Sox and A’s have a lot of first place caliber teams to deal with, the Rockies have the World Series Champions, a team with a $200 million payroll, and a solid team in the desert to deal with. The Giants and Dodgers are both expected to fight for the division and the Diamondbacks are right there with eight wins on the season. If the Rockies can maintain this pace, the NL West will rival the AL West as the deepest division in all of baseball.
The Rockies are, by far, the most vulnerable of all the first place teams in baseball. They will not be able to win games outside of Colorado when they are up against teams with superior pitching. With that being said, if they can continue this play at home, the offense is good enough to win enough games on the road to keep them in contention. But ultimately, their bad starting pitching will be their downfall. Expect two, if not all three, of the aforementioned teams to pass the Rockies when all is said and done.