1. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
One of the best power forwards of all time, Duncan will be 40 years-old before the end of the 2015-2016 season. The Big Fundamental has shown he can still play with the kids but, after years of averaging double-doubles in a single season, Duncan has not reached that mark since the 2009-2010 season. While he did average 13.9 points and 9.1 rebounds in 77 games last season for the Spurs, the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge could further decrease Duncan's role with the team. The 18-year veteran is still capable of starting on a near-daily basis, yet his productivity has been on the decline. That trend figures to continue alongside Aldridge, who will take a commanding role in the Spurs' lineup. On the quest for a sixth ring, Duncan staved off retirement in the wake of the Aldridge signing, but the question remains: will this be the last year of The Big Fundamental?
2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Wade, who has never played 82 games in a single season, got his points-per-game average back up over 20 in the wake of LeBron James' departure in 2014-2015. In 62 games, Wade averaged over 31 minutes-per-game and the 33 year-old silenced any critics who thought he would lose a step without James. Yet, knee problems remain a roadblock that continues to keep Wade off the floor. An improved Heat roster should take some of the load off the 12-year veteran's shoulders, but will health finally catch up to the three-time NBA Champion? Longevity always seemed to be in the cards for Wade, but 2015-2016 could be the season his production suffers.
3. Louis Williams, Los Angeles Lakers
After winning the 2015 Sixth Man of the Year Award, Williams signed a three-year contract with the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason and will play an integral role as Kobe Bryant's backup. Williams will lead an improved Lakers bench, but will his production remain high in a new uniform? History has shown that NBA Sixth Man recipients typically do not follow the award with another tremendous season. With the exception of James Harden, who went on to become a starter after receiving his big pay-day from the Houston Rockets, the Sixth Man tends to have a slight down season after receiving the award. High standards and a new contract with another team are the primary factors that could negatively impact Williams in 2015-2016. The one thing that would prevent a down season for the 10-year veteran, who will turn 29 in October, is an integration into the starting lineup. If the recent trend for Kobe Bryant continues and he is unable to finish out the season, a down season could be avoided for Williams, who is likely to become a starter after Bryant's departure.
4. Luol Deng, Miami Heat
On a Heat team that had one of the better offseasons, Deng was one of several players to re-sign with the team. Pat Riley also brought in role players such as Gerald Green and Amar'e Stoudemire in addition to drafting Justice Winslow to strengthen the team's bench. While Deng still figures to be a starter, his productivity could be down if younger players like Green and Winslow perform at a high level. The 11-year veteran's 14.0 point-per-game average last season was his lowest since his rookie season in 2004-2005. Deng turned 30 in April and, although the veteran still has several years left, the 2015-2016 season could be a benchmark season for his decline.
5. Mike Miller, Portland Blazers
After 15 years as a sharp-shooter in the NBA, Miller is on his last leg. The 35 year-old exercised his option to stay with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, but was subsequently traded to the Portland Trail Blazers. Miller was a key running mate alongside James on the Miami Heat and, last season, with the Cavaliers. His role, however, had become less significant and Miller's minutes declined in his first, and only, season with the Cavs. While starting 15 games for the team, Miller's averaged career lows in minutes (13.5), points (2.1), and rebounds (1.8). The once prominent three-point shooter also reached a career worst in three-point field goal percentage and attempts. There is certainly room for Miller's minutes to increase on a Blazers roster that is the product of a massive offseason shakeup. But his age remains a determining factor and one that could significantly limit Miller's time on the floor in what is likely to be another down season.