What is Ricky Rubio worth? That is the question that has been asked throughout the corners of the NBA, sports media, and Minnesota Timberwolves fans. Well, we may have just gotten our answer, as the T-Wolves just reached a contract extension to keep Rubio in Minnesota for the next 4 years. That deal went for $55 million, a number that has left some scratching their heads looking for answers.
Looking at the numbers, that contract does seem a bit ludicrous. Rubio has only averaged 10 points and 8 assists per game throughout his career, and has never shot over 40% for a whole season since entering the league in 2011. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry, who was drafted two spots later, has averaged 20 points per game and was named to the All-Star team last season. The caveat: Curry signed a 4-year, $44 million contract for the Golden State Warriors in 2013.
However, no negotiation is ever as simple as looking at statistics and comparing numbers to other players. There were many other factors at play here that must be discussed when looking at Rubio’s contract extension.
First, the Timberwolves had to figure out how to react to losing their former face of the franchise Kevin Love. The Wolves decided not to offer Love a max contract, and he decided not to stay in Minnesota. The front office simply could not afford to let another star walk away and leave this team without a leader. The team invested a significant amount of time, money, and effort to keep Love, and those plans failed anyway. Losing Rubio too would show that the front office has no plan for the future, and given how poorly the team has played recently, a bleak future would leave fans little to be excited about. This may have been slightly reactionary, but the extension was also necessary.
At the same time, the deal came at a great time for the Timberwolves. In addition to quelling fears that the team would lose its two best players in less than a calendar year, inking Rubio now means that he cannot reach free agency next summer. He would only have been a restricted free agent, but giving other teams a chance to pry him away could have driven up his value considerably. Just look at what happened with Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons this summer. The Timberwolves took a chance now to avoid a much greater risk next year.
This was also a savvy deal by the team because of the new television deal that is looming. It is no secret that the NBA is nearing the end of its current TV deals, and a new one will undoubtedly bring in much more revenue. Adam Silver says that he understands the salary cap will rise, and offering a contract that appears inflated now will seem miniscule compared to what some of the deals in the near future will look like. Again, the risk now far outweighs the money the team would have to pay next year and down the road.
Finally, the Timberwolves used a negotiation strategy that many teams appear to have forgotten. They are actually paying for potential future production, rather than paying for past results. Rubio has not played to this contract level yet, but the signs are increasingly evident that he has the potential to be an All-Star point guard. So far in this young season he has averaged a shade under 11 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebounds while shooting 42%. He has improved his outside shot, which was a major knock on his game prior to this year. The potential is also there because he is only 24 years old. This may surprise many casual NBA fans because we have been hearing about Rubio since he was a teenager in Spain, but yes, he is only 24. He has played professional basketball for more than a third of his life, and still has so much room to grow his game.
All things considered, the extension may have seemed to be a head-scratcher on the surface. If you look at the circumstances surrounding the deal, the team, and the NBA, the Timberwolves may have been the ones on the winning end.