Golden State Warriors
Pacific Division
51-31, No. 6 in Western Conference
Roster Additions: G Shuan Livingston, G-F Brandon Rush, G Leandro Barbosa
Roster Losses: G Steve Blake, *Jermaine O’Neal
Head Coaching Turnover
Outside of a free-agent casualty at point guard and semi-retired big man, the Golden State Warriors remain largely intact for another playoff run in 2014-15.
That is, if you don’t include the head coach.
The Warriors fired Mark Jackson on May 6 and hired Steve Kerr eight days later as their new master conductor for the next five years on the hardwood.
Despite annually increasing win totals and two consecutive playoff appearances, Jackson found himself back as a TV analyst for ESPN. The longtime NBA floor general had the love and respect of his players but was continually at odds with the Warriors front office.
Just don’t ask team owner Joe Lacob and general manager Bob Myers about the subject.
But playoffs or not, Jackson underachieved with a loaded roster. This team was simply better than a one-and-done showing in the first round.
As such, Kerr is now the man in charge of maximizing that talent en route to earning a higher playoff seed and home-court advantage for at least one round at season’s end.
The NBA’s all-time leader in career three-point shooting percentage was a five-time champion as a player with the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. He then moved into the role of general manager for the Phoenix Suns sandwiched between two stints as a courtside analyst for TNT.
Kerr’s high basketball IQ, championship pedigree and—above all else—knowledge of the Spurs’ winning traditions earned him the head-coaching gig in Golden State.
Lacob established a title-or-bust standard from day one. He expects Kerr to deliver where Jackson ultimately could not.
Roster Analysis + Key Issues for Success
Recall the previous statement that alluded to “maximizing that talent”?
Much of what Lacob expects out of Kerr is directly tied into how much he develops the Warriors’ pre-eminent guard tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
It goes without saying that these two sharpshooters already form the Association’s most lethal backcourt.
They occupied the top two spots for three-point field goals made, compiling an absurd 484. Curry also dished out the third-most assists while Thompson became widely regarded as the best two-way shooting guard in the NBA.
That said, the Warriors offense lacked rhythm and ingenuity. Possessions constantly stagnated because Jackson relied all too often on simple isolation plays to Curry or Thompson.
On the other hand, Golden State was a tremendous defensive club under Jackson. It rated fourth overall in points allowed per 100 possessions (102.6)
Thompson, elite defender Andre Iguodala and center Andrew Bogut’s second-ranked defensive rating all played pivotal roles.
The same goes for do-it-all asset Draymond Green. The versatile fan favorite can guard nearly all five positions.
New No. 2 point guard Shaun Livingston and a healthy Festus Ezeli backing up Bogut should also help on that end of the floor.
However, the Warriors were a seriously underachieving bunch offensively.
They ranked just 12th with 107.5 points scored per 100 possessions—despite having the league’s seventh-leading scorer in Curry, the ninth most-accurate three-point shooter in Thompson and double-double machine David Lee at power forward.
Kerr, then, is tasked with maintaining that team-wide defensive prowess while elevating the offense to an upper-echelon standing.
He must derive more out of point-forward Iguodala, remove the all-world-talented Harrison Barnes from his sophomore purgatory and, of course, continue pushing the Curry-Thompson duo into unprecedented heights.
Not overexerting Bogut and keeping him fresh for the playoffs will also qualify as a fundamental need for the first-year head coach.
Nonetheless, expect a sophisticated, passing-efficient attack from Golden State this season.
Don’t be shocked if six Warriors scorers average in double-figures and Curry leads the NBA in assists.
Brandon Rush could easily turn into a dark-horse shooter off the bench as well.
Fantasy Roster Impact
With the Warriors’ scoring numbers climbing up the ranks in reality basketball, will a similar rise materialize for players on the fantasy hardwood?
Curry ranked No. 4 overall with 3,160 fantasy points last year. He and his 40.5 per-game average fell behind only LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kevin Durant.
Not a bad foursome indeed.
Yet, Golden State had only one other player in the top 50 and three in the top 100.
Lee came in at No. 43 with 2,018 fantasy points at a 29.2-clip over 69 games. Thompson landed at No. 61 with 1,709 points and 21.1 per contest.
So, will those latter two jump higher in the standings or will any other Warriors find themselves fantasy relevant in 2014-15?
Even though Kerr’s tutelage lies under Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, an element of wealth distribution and equitable scoring will not disappoint fantasy owners.
Rising assist totals across the board will elevate the draft stock of most Warriors assets.
Curry will remain in the top five as the best overall guard. Lee will climb into the lower-30s, with Thompson jumping into the mid-40s due to his 20-plus-point scoring average.
A return to a double-digit point mark for Iguodala still won’t earn him the title of fantasy sleeper. But his small forward partner in crime Mr. Barnes will merit that honor.
Bogut, for his part, will frustrate owners who still believe he’ll become a top-10 center.
He’ll otherwise serve as a fine big man off the bench with 10-plus boards and over three dimes per game.
2014-15 Season Prediction
Ok, Kerr has never coached an NBA game in his life.
Sure, there’s some frustration on the part of Thompson for not having received a max contract yet with the Oct. 31st deadline just up ahead.
And yes, the Pacific will only get tougher in an already strong Western Conference now that the Los Angeles Clippers have rid themselves of the Donald Sterling nonsense.
As lauded NBA commentator Stephen A. Smith is fond of saying, “We get all that.”
So what gives?
Despite all those potential obstacles, Golden State will win more games in 2014-15.
Kerr will prove a sensational hire, with top assistant and former head coach Alvin Gentry guiding him in the early goings.
Thompson will receive his contractual due and the Warriors will improve alongside their divisional and conference foes.
The dynamic of Kerr calling the shots and Curry executing as floor general will unfold in captivating fashion throughout the season.
As such, Dub Nation need not worry about any regression, collapse or downright failure.
The Warriors will notch five more wins, finish the year at 56-26 and earn the No. 4 seed in the West. Come playoff time, they’ll make it all the way to the conference championship, falling just short of a berth in the Finals.
That’s an accomplishment Jackson could only dream of fulfilling.
And don’t be surprised if the Warriors reach hallowed ground in year two under Kerr.
Follow Joey on Twitter @jlevitt16 as he tries to wax eloquent on all things Warriors, NBA, NFL, MLB and the sports world at large