The playoffs are just around the corner, and many of the potential matchups have yet to be determined. For the Golden State Warriors, however, their fate has been all but sealed. Given the current standings in the western conference, the Warriors have clinched home-court throughout the playoffs. Their opponent in the first round will either be the New Orleans Pelicans, a surprise to this point who currently sit in eighth place, or the Oklahoma City Thunder, a surprise for many different reasons. The Dallas Mavericks are locked into seventh place, and that means the final spot comes down to two teams. Let’s take a look at which team poses the biggest threat to the Warriors, and why Golden State should be on high alert.
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans hold the tiebreaker over the Thunder, and that is why they are ahead of them in the standings. However, they have a tough schedule to close the season, and any slip up could mean they miss out on their first playoff appearance since the Chris Paul era. This team has dealt with injuries all season, but has found their form despite having missed several key players for long stretches this season.
They are led by MVP candidate Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans, who have shouldered a majority of the load this year. With the injuries to Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon, Evans has had the ball in his hands a lot. He has responded by racking up near-triple doubles and being dominant at the point guard position. The midseason trade for Norris Cole solidified the backup point guard spot, and has allowed New Orleans to play Evans off the ball, where he is an elite attacker.
Injuries to Davis and sharp shooter Ryan Anderson allowed backup center Alexis Ajinca to log big minutes, and he played well in an extended role. This experience could prove to be important if the Pelicans can hold down their playoff spot. With Anderson back, the Pelicans have a legitimate stretch-4 to spread the floor. Bringing in Quincy Pondexter also helped shore up the perimeter defense, and gave New Orleans a viable wing defender.
The key to New Orleans, of course, is Anthony Davis. Davis has been a machine this season, posting ridiculous numbers and being an unstoppable force both offensively and defensively. If not for a few midseason injuries, he’d be at the top of the list of MVP candidates. Davis is versatile and poses a serious matchup problem for anyone who tries to guard him. On defense, he is rangy and can defend ball screens as well as any big man in the league. His length is uncanny, as evidenced by his league lead in blocked shots this season. Davis is the real deal, and this might be the last year before we talk about Davis as an MVP frontrunner. If the Pelicans make the playoffs, it will be squarely on his shoulders.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The challengers of the eighth seed are the Oklahoma City Thunder, which is surprising given the lofty expectations this team had going into the season. However, that was all before reigning MVP Kevin Durant went down with a foot injury, which he never really recovered from. He had a few solid games in the middle of the season, but re-aggravated the injury and was unfortunately shut down for the rest of the year. Dealing with that loss and then the fractured hand of Russell Westbrook, the Thunder stumbled out of the gate. They have recovered since, but injuries have snake-bitten this team.
Oklahoma City relies heavily on Westbrook to create much of its offense. He takes a lot of shots, but he makes a lot of shots and stuffs the box score. He leads the league in triple-doubles, and is explosive as they come. He can go toe-to-toe with any guard in the league and win his matchup. Now without Durant and Serge Ibaka, Westbrook is the alpha and omega for OKC. Without him, this team has no shot at the playoffs, or at making any noise if they make it.
Picking up some of Westbrook’s slack is the frontcourt. Enes Kanter has been a standout power forward during his time in OKC, and he is perhaps the most versatile frontcourt scorer on the team. He provides some much needed balance to the offense, and forces defenses to finally respect a Thunder big man inside. His counterpart is Steven Adams, who has emerged as a true center and a defensive stalwart. He can bang bodies in the paint and clean up the glass, which is what any playoff contending team needs. With Ibaka still sidelined, these two and rookie Mitch McGary need to continue to step up when called upon.
It really is unfortunate that the season has been robbed of a year of Kevin Durant, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and the unending narrative that always follows them. However, this team can still do some damage if they can get Ibaka healthy and continue to get solid production from the frontcourt and role players like Anthony Morrow and Dion Waiters. They first have to make the playoffs, but if they do, the Warriors better be on high alert.
Who’s Worse?
For the Warriors, any team they play will be a massive underdog. However, the Thunder pose a greater challenge due to their playoff experience and the fact that they have the potential MVP on their team. If Serge Ibaka can return healthy, he has the capability to swing a series. Just last season, his return against the San Antonio Spurs almost propelled OKC to the NBA Finals. Oklahoma City has one of the best home crowds in the NBA, which could help it win at least a game or two at home. The core of this team has made deep runs in the playoffs, and Scott Brooks has the coaching advantage over the Pelicans’ Monty Williams.
The Warriors should hope that they end up facing the New Orleans Pelicans. Golden State was 3-1 against both teams, but the only loss to OKC was when Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka combined for 63 points, which won’t be the case if they meet again. The lone win by the Pelicans came earlier this week, when Golden State was clearly disinterested and the Pelicans fighting for their playoff lives. The lack of elite perimeter defenders, three point shooting, and playoff experience make New Orleans a much better matchup for the Warriors, and that is the team the Dubs should hope they face in the first round.