Both the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat were fresh off their respective first-round series sweeps and they figured to be well rested as they headed into the Conference semi-finals. In hindsight were they too rested as Miami lost their series opener and the Spurs needed double-overtime to claim victory?
The Spurs barely broke a sweat against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first-round as the Lakers lost four straight games without much of a fight. The Spurs swept the series while averaged a whopping 18.75 point margin of victory throughout the series. Optimism in San Antonio is sky-high as Spurs fans are sensing a potential Championship run. While the Golden State Warriors present many more dynamic threats than the Kobe-less Lakers did, the Spurs are once again favored to advance through to yet another Conference finals.
Over in the Eastern Conference the Miami Heat buzzed through the toothless Milwaukee Bucks in a four-game sweep of their own. The Heat had an average margin of victory of 14.75 points in those four games, so while they had a slightly more competitive series than the Spurs did, they nonetheless made quick work of the Bucks.
The Heat’s opponent in the second-round is the Chicago Bulls who were fresh off a gruelling and emotional seven game series against Brooklyn. The Heat are also heavily favored to advance through to the next round and many don’t believe the injury besieged Bulls will put up much of an obstacle.
What occurred strangely enough was that both the Heat and the Spurs found themselves on the ropes in game one of their second-round matchups. Does sweeping a playoff series hurt a team? Is team intensity and focus lost during those off-day non-contact practises and light walkthroughs? Funny thing is that basketball is a game of feel and fluidity and as teams and players sit and lose their intensity, the game-speed at which they are accustomed to playing at drops off dramatically.
Now I realize that everyone and every team can have an off-night, however; the Heat shot a miserable 39% from the field and a horrible 68% from the free-throw line in their series opener. If you take away LeBron James 17 field goal attempts, of which he made eight and then recalculate the percentages the Heat as a team (minus James) shot a woeful 37% from the field and 62% from the charity stripe.
The Heat are obviously going to need to play better against the beat-up and battered Bulls squad. One game does not make or break a playoff series; however, the Heat can ill-afford to drop both games at home and then face the unenviable task of having to run the table in Chicago.
Despite the layoff for both the Spurs and the Heat and all the arguments against having more rest versus keeping momentum and rhythm; NBA history shows us that teams who have claimed a series sweep typically experience more success in the playoffs. In fact nine of the last 21 NBA Champions have pulled a four-game sweep during their respective playoff runs; that equates to a 43% success rate over the the preceding 21 years.
Also working in the Spurs and Heat’s favor is the fact that when teams are coming off a four-game sweep, history has shown that they have a 56% chance of winning their next series. Throw in the variable that says when the team coming off a four-game sweep faces an opponent who saw their series go six games or more and the chance of winning now skyrockets to 70%.
The Miami Heat should be slightly concerned about their showing and poor shooting; however, it is not reason for panic. They will bounce-back and earn the home-split before heading on the road into Chicago. At worst the Heat will split the two games in Chicago and then they head home for game five and game seven if it comes down to it. Basketball is a fluid game that offers ebbs and flows of rhythm and momentum; math however is immune to this and the statistics clearly point to the Heat and Spurs advancing past this round.