After this evening the first-round of NBA playoff basketball will have come to a close as the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets will have decided the final participant in the second-round. The first-round of action saw a few surprises as the Los Angeles Clippers besieged by injuries succombed to the Memphis Grizzlies in what was a very physical series.
In what was a bit of an upset, the Golden State Warriors out-gunned the Denver Nuggets and sent the Nuggets home early. The San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat closed out their series in four straight games while the Oklahoma City Thunder battled the Rockets before closing out their series in six games. The New York Knicks wore the Boston Celtics down to claim victory in the decisive sixth game and the Indiana Pacers got a bit of a scare out of Atlanta before finally putting them away in six games as well.
Looking back I accurately predicted the Eastern Conference outcomes all along and went so far as to give you a game seven showdown in Brooklyn prediction for that series...not too bad if I don’t say so myself. The Western Conference predictions were not so kind to me as I was a measly .500. I had both the Clippers and the Nuggets advancing past the first-round, which they obviously failed to do. As a small consolation I did accurately predict a Spurs sweep in their series.
Moving forward we get set to breakdown the second-round of the playoffs. The Conferences are on a staggered start so that means both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference tip-off on Sunday May 5. Stay tuned for the second version of the semi-finals analysis as we will preview the other two matchups before action tips off.
(2) New York Knicks vs (3) Indiana Pacers
Old rivals do battle once again as the Knicks play host to the Pacers in game one of their series. Granted this year’s version is lacking the bad-blood that the Reggie Miller led crew had with the John Stark, Charles Oakley fuelled teams, but this series could be just as competitive. Like the battles of old, this series too will be heavily dependent on defense and physical play.
The Pacers have a distinct advantage in this area as they had the league’s second-best defense and they were the league’s top rebounding club; anyone will tell you that defense and rebounding wins playoff games. To counter that advantage, the Knicks offer the league’s leading scorer in Carmelo Anthony and the leagues top-scoring sixth-man of the year in J.R. Smith.
Here is the problem for the Knicks. When Anthony and Smith are misfiring the rest of the offense can go absolutely stale. As proof of this, the Knicks had the worst point per 100 possession ratio in the postseason due in large part to the heavy reliance on two primary scorers. If Raymond Felton and Tyson Chandler can become offensive contributors then the Knicks are capable of beating the Pacers. There are rumours of Amare Stoudemire returning to action during this series. If this holds true and Stoudemire is healthy then this could be the series-changer that the Knicks need.
PREDICTION: A rock-solid defense will trump an offense in almost every playoff series. I see no exception here for this matchup. The Pacers are an extremely tough defensive squad and they have the versatility to rotate players onto Anthony to wear him down. I like the Pacers to pull-out a series win on their home-court in game six.
FANTASY IMPACT: Assuming that Paul George plays to his fullest potential, the other two players who need to continue their strong play are David West and Roy Hibbert. Hibbert needs to play like the 7’2” man that he is as he can put Chandler in foul trouble and thusly open up the lane for George and West to operate.
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder - (5) Memphis Grizzlies
The story of the first-round for the Thunder was that they will be continuing their playoff journey without all-star Russell Westbrook. The dynamic guard is done for the season and this injury greatly hurts the Thunder’s chances of returning to the Championship round. Round one against Houston showcased the Thunder’s reliance on Westbrook. Without him in the lineup, there is more pressure on Kevin Durant and teams can key their defenses on Durant even more so.
For the Grizzlies their model for success is predicated off physical play and stifling defense. The Grizzlies allowed the fewest points per game throughout the season and that defensive fortitude will be tested as the Thunder boasted the league’s third-best offense. Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol will have his hands full as the Thunder have a much better interiour presence that the Clippers. The Thunder have a couple of bad-asses of their own in Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. If the Grizzlies get a little overly aggressive you can bet that the meat in the middle will have a thing or two to say about it.
PREDICTION: I think the Grizzlies are poised to pull the upset here. Their defense is airtight and their offense is well-rounded. The Thunder will struggle to find easy buckets and the scoring load on Durant and Kevin Martin will be intense. I think the Grizzlies have the experience and the toughness to gut-out a seven game series and eventually move onto the Conference Finals.
FANTASY IMPACT: We all know that Durant is going to get his and if I’m the Grizzlies that is fine by me; make someone else beat you. That someone else for the Thunder is going to have to be Reggie Jackson. Jackson must push the pace of the game and create those easy transition scoring opportunities. If the Thunder get into a half-court grind-it out game they are in trouble.
For the Grizzlies they will need Mike Conley to have a huge series. Conley needs to take it to Jackson, get the inexperienced player on his heels and shake his confidence. If Conley can get Jackson to expend a lot of energy on the defensive end it will impact Jackson’s ability to keep the pace up on the offensive end for a full 48 minutes. Conley has the skill set to dominate in this series and the Grizzlies will need every bit of it to advance here.