NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

By Sam Schwartz on Friday, April 15th 2016
NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

After months of waiting for the pieces to fall in the logjam that was the Eastern Conference Playoff seeding, it all boiled down to a four-way tie.

The Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Charlotte Hornets all finished the regular season 48-34. Even after losing their regular season finale to the Boston Celtics, the Heat came away winners, re-taking the Southeast Division crown and, subsequently, the third seed in the East.

As for the other four teams, they have known for several days what matchup awaits in the first round.

 

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Detroit Pistons 

After meeting in the regular season finale on Wednesday, these two teams will meet for at least four more games. The Cavaliers, of course, are the top dogs in the East for the second straight season and will begin their quest to return to the NBA Finals against a division rival. 

The Pistons were able to take three of four from the Cavs during the regular season. They return to the postseason for the first time since 2009, their last run with Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace. That year, the Pistons were ousted in the first round via a four-game sweep by the Cavaliers. Now, it is Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson who lead the way. Jackson is the team's leader in points-per-game (18.8) and assists-per-game (6.2). Drummond is having a career year. Selected to his first All-Star game, he leads the NBA in rebounding. 

Keys to the series
This matchup will feature the East's best defensive team in the Cavaliers against the best rebounding team in the Pistons. The Pistons were bottom-of-the-pack in defense. In terms of scoring, the Cavs were second in the conference, while the Pistons were ninth. Both teams were in the bottom-tier in forcing turnovers. Cleveland is a much better shooting team than Detroit, specifically when it comes to threes.

The Cavs locked up the top seed last week and remain the favorites to represent the East in The Finals for a second straight year.

Prediction: Cavaliers in 4

 

(2) Toronto Raptors vs (7) Indiana Pacers

This will be the first meeting between these two teams in the playoffs. The Raptors were one of the hottest teams in the East all season and took three of four from the Pacers in the regular season. After a sub-.500 season without Paul George forced the Pacers to miss the postseason for the first time in the Frank Vogel era, they came back to finish second in the Central Division.

The Raptors finish first in the Atlantic Division for the third straight season, tying a franchise record for most consecutive playoff appearances (three). They have lost in the first round in six of their seven postseasons, including a devastating sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards in 2015. It was a series in which the Raptors never lost by less than seven points.

They were back with a vengeance this season with two of the league's top-15 scorers. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry each had the best scoring seasons of their careers. When it appeared that free agent pickup DeMarre Carroll would be the one to get them over the hump, it was Jonas Valanciunas who stepped up and averaged career-highs in rebounds and points.

Keys to the series
This matchup features the sixth and seventh ranked offenses in the East and two of the conference's top-five defenses. The Raptors are second behind the Cavs in points allowed, while the Pacers held opponents to the second lowest field goal percentage in the conference. The Pacers were third behind the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs in three point defense during the regular season, while the Raptors were last in the East. That will be the biggest key to this matchup because the Raptors are the best three-point shooting team in the East.

The Raptors came out victorious in one playoff series in their history, but fans have reason to believe this is the year for a second. There will be a tremendous amount of pressure on them to redeem last year's collapse.

Prediction: Raptors in 7

 

(3) Miami Heat vs (6) Charlotte Hornets

In a wild finish to the regular season, a Heat loss and a Hornets win did not alter the standings. A Hawks loss was the key to the Heat winning the division and clinching the three-seed. It is their first Southeast Division title since losing the NBA Finals in LeBron James' last season with the team. 

The Hornets are back in the postseason for the first time since their name change in 2014. It was the Heat than bounced the Bobcats in four games that season. They have not advanced past the first round since 2002 and this is just their third playoff appearance since that time. Kemba Walker had a career year, as did Nicolas Batum, whom they acquired in one of the better offseason trades. Batum is dealing with an ankle sprain and is listed as day-to-day.

The Heat have injuries of their own to worry about. It appears doubtful that Chris Bosh will return from a nagging blood clot issue that has plagued him for the past two seasons. Backup point guard Tyler Johnson is also expected to miss the start of the playoffs and Udonis Haslem missed the Heat's regular season finale with a foot injury.

Keys to the series

The Hornets turned the ball over the fewest out of any team in the NBA this season. Despite having one of the better defenses in the NBA, the Heat forced the fourth-fewest turnovers in the NBA. While the Heat had the highest field goal percentage in the East, they were the second-worst three-point shooting team in the conference. The Hornets, on the other hand, were tied for the third-highest three-point field goal percentage in the East, but were the second-worst shooting team in the conference.

These two teams split the four regular season meetings, but the Heat had the tiebreaker as a result of a better conference record. After two blowouts that went both ways, the final two matchups between the teams were each decided by three points. The Hornets enter the postseason having won four of their last five games, while the Heat have won four of the last six.

Prediction: Heat in 7

 

(4) Atlanta Hawks vs (5) Boston Celtics

The Celtics would have had home court against the Heat had the Hawks not suffered a shocking defeat to a John Wall-less Washington Wizards team. The Hawks took the fourth and final game from the Celtics last Saturday and will now rendezvous in the playoffs a week later.

It is back-to-back playoff appearances for the Celtics in Brad Stevens' third year with the team. They have been bounced in the first round in each of their previous two appearances. The Hawks, on the other hand, are on a streak of nine consecutive playoff berths. They lost in the first round in four of those years, but made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2015. It was their first time reaching the Conference Finals since 1970, when they were in the Western Division.

The Hawks had the edge in the regular season, winning three of four games against the C's. The last time these two teams met in the playoffs in 2012, the Celtics moved on to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in six games.

Keys to the series

The Celtics had the most potent offense in the East this year, averaging 105.7 points-per-game. They were expected to be one of the better defensive teams in the league, but finished in the bottom-half of the East in points allowed. The Hawks held opponents to the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season. Neither team is particularly good at shooting threes, but the Celtics are third-worst in the NBA. This is a matchup between two of the top-three defensive teams in the conference. However, Atlanta had the third-worst rebounding differential in the NBA during the regular season and was the worst offensive rebounding team.

The one game that the Celtics won in the regular season came at TD Garden. Mike Budenholzer did not coach that game.

Prediction: Hawks in 6

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Scores

7:00 PM ET
Pistons
-
Cavaliers
-
7:30 PM ET
Celtics
-
Nets
-
8:00 PM ET
Bucks
-
Knicks
-
8:30 PM ET
Mavericks
-
Grizzlies
-
9:30 PM ET
Thunder
-
Nuggets
-
Nets
110
Spurs
126
Jazz
118
Pelicans
129
Pacers
109
Hornets
133
76ers
124
Heat
117
Bulls
112
Trail Blazers
121
Clippers
88
Timberwolves
94
Magic
108
Rockets
113
Mavericks
121
Kings
130
Hawks
126
Wizards
96
Suns
113
Lakers
110
1:00 PM ET
Hornets
-
Trail Blazers
-
3:30 PM ET
Heat
-
Rockets
-
7:00 PM ET
Wizards
-
Raptors
-
8:30 PM ET
Warriors
-
Lakers
-
9:30 PM ET
Jazz
-
Pelicans
-