With the NBA regular season mere hours away from finishing it will not only signify the end of the line for many a teams but it could also mark the end of many a players current tenure with their club. Although open season on the free-agents won’t officially start for a while yet the speculation on potential departures will run rampant until signatures are obtained on new contracts.
There are many unrestricted free-agents set to hit the open market and although the soon to be free-agent crop pales in comparison to next year’s potential roster, it still has some solid acquisitions in it.
Aside from the restricted free agents and those who have player options heading into the offseason, the true free-agent class boasts some fairly big names. Excluding the Carmelo Anthony’s and LeBron James’s of the worlds who both figure to stay put in their respective cities, there will be a significant number of movement as the free-agent period shakes out.
Given the sheer volume of free-agents ready to hit the market we will break down the potential movers by Conference. We will start in the Eastern Conference where we have identified the top ten free-agents.
Paul Pierce - Brooklyn Nets
After making the jump from Boston to Brooklyn, Pierce is now in his walk year with the Nets. He is coming off a career worst year that saw him get paid in excess of $15 million. For their money the Nets saw a stat line of 13.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 2.4 apg; numbers far worthy of such a fat contract. Pierce will be taking a pay cut next contract no question about it and with $89 million already committed to their team payroll for next season the Nets would only be offering a two or three year deal at a discounted rate anyways.
Kirk Hinrich - Chicago Bulls
The case for Hinrich is an intriguing one as the ten year NBA veteran is once again entering free agency. He has shown that he is more than capable of starting in the backcourt or coming off the bench and his numbers over the past three season have been fairly consistent. Prospective buyers should have a pretty good idea what they are getting with Hinrich and that will create a solid market for his services. Hinrich earned just over $4 million with the Bulls this past season and at that price he was a bargain considering that he started in 60 games and played in 72.
Luol Deng - Cleveland Cavaliers
Deng will be one the more in demand free agents on the market this season; however, he will be hitting the market in search of a hefty contract with some long term security to it. The Cavs will probably make a modest contract offer to Deng; however, expect Deng to hit the open market and leave Cleveland behind. This past season Deng was paid $14 million for his services and given the poor performance of the team with him they can definitely afford to let him go. Look for Deng to sign on with a playoff contender team even if it means taking a bit of a pay cut.
Andrew Bynum - Indiana Pacers
The curious case of Andrew Bynum will have yet another chapter to it as the big man will once again be on the search for a new home. This season did not go at all according to plan for Bynum and his agents as they had hoped to parlay a strong comeback into a long term elite player contract. Instead Bynum’s injury has forced him to miss vast portions of the season and his attitude caused his dismissal from the one team that was ready to take a chance on him last offseason. Look for Bynum to sign either a one year or a two year deal in hopes of working his way back to an elite level.
Lance Stephenson - Indiana Pacers
Stephenson is in-line for a nice pay raise as he is hitting the open market with his stock riding high. If he can continue his strong play into the playoffs and prove his worth against Miami in a potential Conference championship showdown, then his value will climb exponentially. Stephenson is a strong defender who can score and rebound the ball well for a guard. He will command significant interest among the free-agent class and he will have earned the chance to sign a four or five year deal that should see him bring in around $30 million.
Ray Allen - Miami Heat
Allen has made no real overture that he intends on retiring so one must assume that the 38-year old plans on continuing his playing career. If Allen were to bolt Miami, which I don’t think will happen, it would have to be for an even better chance at winning. The Heat need Allen and Allen is comfortable in Miami. It makes sense that the Heat resign him for at least another year with a possibly second year at player option for around $3 million per season.
Michael Beasley - Miami Heat
The Heat took a bit of a flyer on Beasley last season as they signed him to a minimum contract. For Beasely’s part he played well and kept himself out of trouble which will probably garner him some interest from around the league. He is clearly better suited as a bench scorer who can be used in spot starts and to exploit matchups. How much teams would be willing to pay for such a player remains to be seen but I expect a two year offer will come his way and I doubt it will be from Miami.
Mario Chalmers - Miami Heat
Chalmers is another member of the Heat to be entering free-agency this offseason and while the Heat will likely let a handful of free-agents walk, Chalmers won’t be one of them. He is a valuable part of what the Heat do and he has provided stability and consistency to the backcourt over the past three season as a full-time starter. He might get a bit more money elsewhere; however, there aren’t many places that afford one the opportunity to win championships and play with the best player on the planet. I foresee Chalmers resigning with the Heat on a three or four year deal.
Ramon Sessions - Milwaukee Bucks
Sessions will likely leave Milwaukee for greener pastures. His play with the club will certainly garner him some interest from around the league as teams will see 16.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg and 4.7 apg that he posted during the 27 games he played for the Bucks. Sessions made $5 million last season and he will undoubtedly like to find some job security with his next deal in terms of a multi-year contract. I could see a team biting on a two year deal if the price was right.
Kyle Lowry - Toronto Raptors
After leading the Raptors to the promise land and after having a bounce-back season, Lowry will be entering into free-agency. His worth and value is at a ceiling right now and general managers would be wise to see that. Even still he was a bargain this season for the Raptors at $6.1 million and both the Raps and Lowry know it. Lowry will be in a position to command a significant raise from that base salary and the Raptors are going to be forced into signing him as they can ill afford to alienate a fan base that they have worked so hard over the past five years to earn back.
Trevor Ariza - Washington Wizards
Ariza certainly had his moments for the Wizards this season as the nine-year veteran showed that he still has it. He didn’t really play consistently enough though to live up to his $7 million contract this season and for that reason I think the Wizards will deem him expendable. Other teams around the league will come calling as stretch forwards are in demand. I do see that Ariza will need to take a pay cut if he wants to get a multi year deal out of a team; however, a team that is built for success now might just bite on a two year deal.
Marcin Gortat - Washington Wizards
If the Wizards let Gortat test the free-agent waters before making the ‘Polish Hammer’ a significant multi-year offer then they will be making a catastrophic mistake. The Wizards enjoyed a nice playoff run and Gortat played a huge part in that success. Team around the league will come calling for the bruising big man and they will be prepared to spend some serious money to procure his services. Washington needs to capitalize on the goodwill and good feelings around the team and community and swoop in and get his signature on a new contract before he starts fielding offers from other clubs.