This season, the NBA seemed as top-heavy as it has ever been. The dominance of the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs was unparalleled in NBA history, and many anticipated their matchup in the Western Conference Finals to see if the best record in NBA history could top one of the best point differential teams ever. Only, it seems that no one told the Oklahoma City Thunder about this, as they wrecked all plans of this potentially historic matchup by beating the Spurs in six games in the second round. Now, the Warriors square off against OKC in a matchup to see who will represent the West in the NBA Finals.
Who has the edge? Has OKC’s defense revamped itself enough to contain the Warriors? Let’s break it down and see who will be moving on to the Finals.
Regular Season
The Warriors had, obviously, one of the greatest regular seasons ever. Setting the NBA record with 73 wins will do that for you. The Thunder, on the other hand, also had a fantastic season with the fifth best record in the league. Oklahoma City quietly had an up and down year, but have always had the firepower to compete at an extremely high level. Golden State’s numbers speak for themselves.
In the regular season, these teams met three times. All three were close games, but the Warriors pulled out victories in all of them. The first matchup featured an OKC comeback that fell short in the waning minutes, despite 40 points from Kevin Durant.
The second matchup was one of the most entertaining games of the season, as the Warriors stormed back in the fourth quarter behind 12 threes from Stephen Curry in an overtime victory that seemed downright impossible. Each three was more ridiculous than the last, as his finale was a 35-foot pull-up three to beat the OT buzzer and win the game.
Finally, the Warriors used a 39 point fourth quarter to erase a nine-point deficit in the third matchup, and it seemed to be a trend that OKC couldn’t hold onto a lead against the Warriors.
The point is that these two teams match up pretty well against each other. Three close games in the regular season with the Thunder holding a late lead in two of them showcase each team’s ability to jockey back and forth, but the Warriors must feel they have a psychological advantage going into game one on Monday night.
Star Power
The stars will be out in full force in this series. You have the 2x MVP Stephen Curry and former MVP Kevin Durant, as well as Russell Westbrook and Klay Thompson duking it out. It will be fun to watch the quality of offense in this series. All of them were virtually unstoppable in the regular season matchups, with Durant averaging over 36 points per game and Curry averaging 35.
One question mark for the Warriors is how Curry’s knee is feeling after coming back from an injury that sidelined him for two weeks. He seemed fine in his game 4 and 5 performances against Portland, but all eyes will be on his health, as Westbrook will certainly test him defensively. For the Thunder, the biggest question will be if Kevin Durant can snap out of his late game struggles against Golden State. In the three matchups, Durant shot just 1 for 7 in the final 3 minutes of regulation and overtime, and had a crucial turnover in the second game before fouling Andre Iguodala to help GS force overtime.
3 Keys to the Series
1. Matchup Versatility
In the second round, Oklahoma City took down the Spurs by going big. Steven Adams, Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter dominated the offensive glass and controlled the paint, limiting San Antonio on both sides of the ball. Can they afford to do that against a Warriors team that can roll out 5 proficient shooters at their respective positions? Golden State can matchup with just about anyone, but OKC can exploit the offensive glass to try to bully the Warriors into playing their game. On the other hand, the Warriors can just as easily shoot the Thunder out of their preferred big-heavy lineup and make them play small ball, where no one is better than Golden State.
2. Defensive Intensity
Oklahoma City’s defense was inconsistent at best and dysfunctional at worst this year. However, they looked locked in against San Antonio and seem to have turned a corner. Can they maintain their momentum? They’ll need to chase Curry around screens and protect the paint, while hoping the supporting cast goes cold. It’s a lot to ask, but Westbrook has been a solid defender on Curry when asked to be. The Warriors make you play their game and can mix and match to exploit any weakness you have, and OKC has to be ready to minimize the damage, or else they’ll find themselves in trouble.
Golden State had an excellent defensive record but has looked lax in the past, and Damian Lillard just proved that their backcourt is burnable. Expect Westbrook to get his numbers, but the Warriors need to make him the primary shot-taker and prevent the other guys like Dion Waiters and Andre Roberson from getting good looks. They have turned up the pressure in the past, and will need to do so again to slow down a potent OKC offense.
3. Supporting Cast
Earlier in the postseason, I said that Dion Waiters would have to step up to allow OKC to make a run. He did that against San Antonio, and he’ll have to lead the charge against the Warriors again this series. Waiters has to be that second scorer in the backcourt, much like C.J. McCollum was for Portland. Meanwhile, the bigs have to dominate the glass and help prevent lane penetration on one end, and finish in the pick and roll on the other. That will open up shooters and create better spacing.
Golden State’s bench is deep and versatile. At times, it looks like there are five of the same player on the court, allowing them to switch just about everything and still feel confident in their matchup. Shaun Livingston filled in capably in Curry’s absence, while Draymond Green turned heads with his performances as well. Iguodala and Harrison Barnes are threats on the wing, and the big men all bring something unique to the floor. The Warriors are comfortable playing a variety of different lineups and rotations, helping them to be one of the most dangerous teams in the league, even without Stephen Curry.
The Verdict
All things considered, this will be an excellent series that will truly test the grit and mettle of both sides. The Thunder will be neck and neck all the way, and I think they’ll take a couple of games from this series. Ultimately, however, I don’t think they can be consistent enough on both sides of the floor to win this series. It has been their fatal flaw all year, and no one exploits weaknesses like Golden State.
I’m going with Warriors in Six, in what should be a fun, riveting matchup.