10. Ryan Mathews, Running Back, San Diego Chargers
Many fantasy football drafters were skeptical about selecting Mathews heading into 2013, due to his underwhelming, injury-plagued performance the prior year. Surprisingly, Mathews played every game in 2013, and his fantasy numbers, while not overly fantastic, were much improved from his previous year.
Mathews was a late round draft pick bargain for those who chose him. But, six rush touchdowns doesn’t exactly scream RB1 material and with Danny Woodhead continuing to share the ground carries, look for Mathews to struggle to be anything more than a lower-end fantasy RB2 the majority of the time in 2014.
9. Eric Decker, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos
For the past two seasons, Decker has been a stud, recording over double-digit touchdowns, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards and ranking within the top 10 for wide receivers. Last year, however, Decker achieved those numbers in fluky ways. In nine of his 16 games, he had under 10 fantasy points and once crazy game in Week 13, he scored four touchdowns prior to having four weeks without a score.
2014 may have Decker entering the free agency as the Broncos are loaded with talent in this position and may choose to let Decker go. While Decker flaunts WR1 numbers most weeks, it’s mainly due to the fact he catches from the top passing quarterback there ever was in the NFL. Under any other quarterback, look for Decker’s numbers to decline into the comfortable WR2 zone.
8. Reggie Wayne, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts
In eight of Wayne’s 13 years with the Colts, he has achieved over 1,000 receiving yards and scored a total of 80 receiving touchdowns during his tenure as a Colt. For Wayne fans and fantasy owners, it was devastating to see him end his 2013 season with an ACL injury after only seven games.
Wayne is an amazing veteran wide receiver, but even before he was injured, his targets had been diminishing with only 58 in those last seven games. In 2014, we should see Wayne return, but it seems only logical in order to keep him healthy, that the Colts will further utilize their pleather of younger receiving options, therefore threatening the WR1 title he has owned for so long.
7. Knowshon Moreno, Running Back, Denver Broncos
Who knew drafting Moreno in late rounds in 2013 would have landed you the fifth-ranked running back last year? Moreno finished 2013 setting career highs with nearly 1,600 rushing and receiving yards combined and a grand total of 13 touchdowns. These are some magnificent numbers to attempt to replicate again in 2014, especially with the Broncos 2013 second round draft pick, Montee Ball eagerly waiting to handle more responsibility.
Like Decker, Moreno is set to become a free agent whom the Broncos may not be able to retain. If Moreno finds himself with another team, he is unlikely to produce the stats he did under the NFL’s highest scoring offensive unit in 2013.
6. Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans
Johnson begins his 12th year with the Texans in 2014. Since 2003, Johnson has seven seasons where he crossed the 1,000 yard receiving mark, scoring a total of 61 total touchdowns, and rewarding his fantasy owners handsomely along the way.
Surprisingly, Johnson was able to finish 2013 12th ranked among wide receivers despite the Texans dreadful 2-14 record and inadequately performing quarterbacks. 2014 could very likely bring a rookie quarterback onto the scene which does not equate to Johnson’s numbers rising any further in 2014, deeming him a low WR1 fantasy draft pick.
5. Larry Fitzgerald, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
Another of the NFL’s finest veteran receivers is Fitzgerald, entering into his second year with quarterback Carson Palmer in the driver’s seat. While 2013 was a huge improvement from Fitzgerald’s 2012 stats, especially with 10 touchdowns, his highest since 2009, fantasy owners would be unwise to think that even better fantasy numbers are on the horizon for 2014.
Keep in mind, third year receiver, Michael Floyd plays an abundant role in the Cardinal’s receiving force and he actually exceeded Fitzgerald’s receiving yards with 24 less targets. Fantasy owners have already witnessed Fitzgerald’s elite years, so he should be considered no more than a WR2 for 2014 fantasy drafts.
4. Arian Foster, Running Back, Houston Texans
If you bought in high and drafted Foster in 2013 while crossing your fingers hoping for another year of top five running back performance, you were the unfortunate recipient of a run-ragged player, who was the victim of his own 4,264 weathering rushing yards he ran over the past three years.
Unfortunately also for Foster, who only played eight games, leaving his fantasy owners hanging out to dry, injuries got the best of him. Hopefully, Foster can make a complete recovery and resume his role in 2014. Just don’t expect the top RB1 fantasy points of seasons past when considering Foster for your fantasy team, as that ship has sailed.
3. Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, New England Patriots
Gronkowski, who has been through a myriad of eight surgeries and endured multiple injuries including ACL, MCL and a broken forearm kind of reminds me of the Energizer Bunny. His latest surgery has him recovering from some major knee reconstruction. Sure, Gronkowski, who possesses an astounding career high 1,327 yards with 17 touchdowns in 2011, will march on and return in 2014 as the right-hand guy to Tom Brady. But how long before yet another injury plagues him will be the burning question. Drafting Gronkowski in 2014, hoping for his fantasy numbers of 2011 is extremely risky and the 6’-6” beast of a tight end could disappoint once again.
2. Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
Peterson, who will be playing his last year in his twenties, is currently recovering from hernia surgery. He has had an amazing run since 2007 with the Vikings, completing over 10,000 rushing yards and 86 touchdowns. 2012 brought fantasy owners Peterson’s peak season where he proudly rushed for 2,097 rush yards, surely escalating your fantasy team to playoffs.
Last year, Peterson owners got a bit shorted as some anticipated wear and tear began to nag at him, causing him to miss a couple of games and slip from the first-ranked to the eighth-ranked running back in 2013. Those who take a chance with Peterson in 2014, should still get an RB1 for the most part, but not likely the highest ranking RB1, so draft carefully.
1. Peyton Manning, Quarterback, Denver Broncos
Manning is not exactly the name you want to be reading here, right? He has had an absolute brilliant 16-year NFL career and all signs point forward to him remaining the Broncos quarterback in 2014. Icing on his cake is he just had his most stellar of seasons in 2013, breaking two NFL records with 5,477 passing yards and scoring an incredible 55 touchdowns in a regular season.
Manning has achieved some all-time highs, so it would really be a stretch to see the 38 year-old break any further records, much less his own. By all means, in 2014, I would consider him a high QB1 for fantasy football, but to expect the astronomical numbers of last year would be a reach. What goes up has to come down eventually.