The Buffalo Bills find themselves in 2013 with new players, new coaches and a new philosophy. One can only wonder whether such a dramatic makeover will turn a non-playoff team for the past 13 seasons into a postseason contender.
However, let’s first return to 2012 and briefly recap how the Bills got to where they are today.
Brief 2012 Review
In between a 20-point loss in Week 1 and 19-point win in Week 17, there was some good, but a whole lot of bad concerning Buffalo’s regular season play.
The Bills, in sequential order, followed this unfortunate pattern: Win two, lose two; win one, lose three; win one, lose one; win one, lose three. It was simply a case of taking one step forward then six steps back, with the positive progression not being all that great.
They did not beat a single team last season with a winning record. They feasted on the likes of Kansas City, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Arizona and the New York Jets—teams that picked first, second, sixth, seventh and ninth in the 2012 NFL draft. And their victory over the Jets came after a 48-28 thrashing by Gang Green on opening week.
Buffalo actually had loads of talent on both sides of the ball. A good offensive line (only 30 sacks allowed), a 1,200-yard running back, serviceable quarterback and a 1,000-yard receiver were all in place. It also featured a defense with Kyle Williams and Mario Williams up front, Nick Barnett in the middle and playmaking safety Jairus Byrd patrolling deep.
No matter—Ryan Fitzpatrick and co could not score against quality defenses and their own defense couldn’t stop much of anything. It surrendered an ugly four games of 45 or more points, including two over 50.
The Bills finished their 2012 campaign at 6-10. But it really felt much worse.
2013 Schedule | Date | Opponent | Home/Away | Time (EST) | Station |
| 9/8/13 | New England | Home | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 9/15/13 | Carolina | Home | 1:00 pm | FOX |
| 9/22/13 | New York Jets | Away | 4:25 pm | CBS |
| 9/29/13 | Baltimore | Home | 1:00 pm | FOX |
| 10/3/13 | Cleveland | Away | 8:25 (Thursday) | NFLN |
| 10/13/13 | Cincinnati | Home | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 10/20/13 | Miami | Away | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 10/27/13 | New Orleans | Away | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 11/3/13 | Kansas City | Home | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 11/10/13 | Pittsburgh | Away | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 11/17/13 | New York Jets | Home | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| BYE | | | | |
| 12/1/13 | Atlanta | Home | 4:05 pm | FOX |
| 12/8/13 | Tampa Bay | Away | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 12/15/13 | Jacksonville | Away | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 12/22/13 | Miami | Home | 1:00 pm | CBS |
| 12/29/13 | New England | Away | 1:00 pm | CBS |
Schedule Analysis
Doug Marrone should be thanking the football gods for his first go around as an NFL head coach.
The Bills have the good fortune of playing the fifth-easiest schedule in 2013. Their opponents had a mere .473 winning percentage from last season.
Aside from the obligatory divisional games with the hapless Jets, Buffalo will host Carolina and Kansas City and travel to Cleveland and Jacksonville. The Panthers and Chiefs are playoff-worthy squads on paper, but have exploitable flaws. The Browns and Jaguars, meanwhile, are deficient at the most important position, with Brandon Weeden and Blaine Gabbert leading their respective teams.
The not so enjoyable portion of the Bills’ schedule includes Baltimore, Cincinnati and Atlanta at home, in addition to road matchups with the Saints, Steelers and Buccaneers. And one certainly cannot overlook the two daunting battles with division-favorite New England.
Even with a favorable overall schedule, look for a year’s end total of five or six wins for the Bills this season.
Offensive Outlook
Offensive production becomes problematic when rookies or journeyman castoffs handle snaps under center.
The Bills drafted E.J. Manuel with the intention of making him the face of their franchise for years to come. Many placed a third-round grade on the Florida State product, but Buffalo considered him worthy of a first-round selection as the first quarterback taken. He possesses a strong arm and good athleticism, but issues with consistency, starting experience and overall viability as an NFL QB are legitimate concerns.
If Manuel doesn’t win the job following the conclusion of training camp and preseason action, six-year veteran Kevin Kolb will assume starting duties. Kolb has the experience that his rookie counterpart lacks, but is without the requisite accuracy and toughness from the quarterback position. A ratio of 28 touchdowns to 25 interceptions and multiple season-ending injuries lend credence to his deficiencies.
All that being said, the game of football isn’t played by just one man. Dynamic running back C.J. Spiller totaled 1,703 yards from scrimmage and was second in the NFL with an average of 6.0 yards per carry last season. He’ll provide insurance for whoever plays quarterback from a backfield that also features former 1,000-yard man Fred Jackson and Tashard Choice.
Either Manuel or Kolb will also have a few receiving options at their disposal. Perennial 1,000-yard wideout Stevie Johnson and underrated 6’7’’ tight end Scott Chandler will create a formidable one-two security blanket. And rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin bring respective route-running ability and speed to the table as well.
Unfortunately, the offensive line suffered a big loss at left guard when Andy Levitre signed with the Tennessee Titans. His value in pass protection and the overall unit’s subpar performance as run-blockers will hamper the Bill’s offense in 2013.
Defensive Outlook
If defensive talent is the topic at hand, then Buffalo is sitting pretty in 2013.
The Bills have nose tackle Marcell Dareus and the aforementioned “Williams Brothers” in a front-seven that will get after the quarterback on a consistent basis. Rookie Kiko Alonso and second-year man Nigel Bradham will infuse quality play as every-down middle linebackers.
Free safety Jairus Byrd is one of the best in the business when it comes to coverage from the secondary. First-round pick in 2012 Stephon Gilmore will do the same from his cornerback position. The 6’1’’, 190-pounder will better realize his potential as a shutdown corner in his second NFL campaign.
Yet, questions still do remain for the Bills’ defense. Will Alonso and Bradham maintain a productive standard in their new three-down role? Can Mario Williams make a successful conversion to 3-4 outside linebacker? Is Leodis McKelvin a legitimate starting corner?
And, perhaps as important as anything else, can the Bills improve upon their dreadful No. 31-ranked run defense that allowed a league-worst 23 touchdowns on the ground?
For the Bills to succeed this season, a positive answer must accompany each of these questions.