Running Back, Arian Foster of the Houston Texans is beginning his sixth season in the NFL. Foster broke out as fantasy football stud in his 2010, sophomore season, reigning in top RB1 numbers, becoming the envy of those who didn’t own him. Foster has continued to thrive and reward high end fantasy points through 2012, making him a slam-dunk RB1 fantasy option.
For those who need a refresher, let’s review Foster’s past accomplishments. Foster’s numbers from 2010 through 2012 are quite staggering as he accumulated a total of 4,264 rush yards, on 956 attempts, and rushed in 41 touchdowns. No slouch in the receiving department, either, Foster had 159 receptions totaling 1,438 yards and six receiving touchdowns, during the 2010-2012, three-year time period.
Unfortunately in 2013, Foster hit a stumbling block as he only participated in eight games due to chronic back pain, which eventually lead to season-ending surgery for the star back. If we look at what Foster accomplished in the eight games he played with 121 carries, 542 yards and just one rush touchdown, he was on course for 1,000-plus yards. At 4.5 yards per carry, Foster’s carry rate averaged higher than his 4.1 percent from 2012, which is noteworthy. However, Foster’s carries likely wouldn’t have surpassed 300, and only one rushing touchdown in eight games was severely under par for Foster, which is a major concern.
Had Foster completed his 2013 season, he definitely was not on track for achieving the elite RB1 numbers of his past three years. To further back this, Foster’s consistency rate in 2012 was the highest of all running backs at 88 percent, compared to his 38 percent consistency rate in 2013. This rate is based on a running back either rushing for 100-plus yards and/or scoring one rush touchdown, per game; a definite factor to keep in mind when it comes to considering fantasy options.
For those who own Foster in keeper fantasy leagues, or who are considering him as an RB1 for 2014 certainly want to know if he is worth owning, or selling. Fortunately for Foster, it appears he is fully recovered from his back surgery and committed to be the Texans’ primary workhorse this year.
The team is without Ben Tate, now who was more than capable for filling in for Foster last year. Although the Texans have running backs Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson waiting in the wings, I don’t see them giving these guys much work unless Foster really begins to wear down.
For 2014, I believe Foster will come close to, or hit the 1,000 yard rushing mark. However, the 13 to 14 rushing touchdowns per season he averaged in the past, seem to be just that, a thing of the past. I would recommend selling on Foster as a high-end RB1 if you are in a standard league, as I do not anticipate true top-five running back numbers from this aspect.
If you participate in points per reception (PPR) leagues, though, consider hanging onto Foster for another season. He is an excellent pass catcher, who was on target for upwards of 400 receiving yards and 50 receptions before he was injured last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an improvement at quarterback under new head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense, and should rely upon Foster in the passing game, perhaps even more than he has been utilized in the past.