This time of year there is only one thing on a sports fan's mind: Fantasy Football. So, with that, your friendly neighborhood eDraft team is here to help. We will go team-by-team and break down all 32 teams, with in-depth analysis of top players, hidden gems, and projected busts. To check out the other breakdowns, as they become available, click here. Today, we break down the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are like Hilbert’s Sixteenth Problem, nobody can figure it out. Cincinnati had the third best defense in the entire league in terms of “total defense.” Pair that outstanding defense with a top-ten offense, and you should have a team contending in the Super Bowl, correct? Not so fast. The Bengals have added pieces this year to get them over the hump, so which of those players will help you get over your fantasy hump?
Andy Dalton, Quaterback
Walk into a corner bar, and ask any football fan, “Who were the top-five fantasy quarterbacks from a season ago?” You’ll most likely get a variation of the same answers: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, and maybe even the occasional Nick Foles or Aaron Rodgers. Now, tell them to take a seat, and tell the person that Dalton was actually in that group.
Dalton was one of only those five, along with Luck, Newton, Brees and Manning, to score at least 275 total points (ESPN.com scoring). In nine games last season, Dalton scored at least 15 fantasy points and threw for over 275 yards. Over the course of the season, he had multiple passing touchdown games, eleven times. He was fourth in terms of fantasy points on vertical passes, and third in stretch vertical fantasy points.
When playing Dalton, the good comes with the bad, however. In ten separate games last year he had at least one interception, seven of such games where multiple-turnover games. Dalton had a three-game stretch mid-season where he scored 24 points, 26 points, and 31 points respectively. However, the two games before that he scored five and eight points and the game after that stretch, he scored only six.
With multiple additions on the offensive side of the ball, Andy Dalton is still a viable fantasy quarterback. Whether he will be a top-five player once again, is still to be seen. But let’s be honest, that won’t happen again. Dalton will have a short-leash this season, especially after the self-imploding performance in the playoffs last year. If he plays all the games, he’s a solid QB2 option.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 130
Giovani Bernard, Running Back
Gio had an incredible rookie season, one that proved he could be a feature-back in the league. But, for some reason he still only got 35% of the team’s carries last year. To prove his ability, on a team with tremendous receiving ability, he was targeted 71 times last season. Clearly, they were trying to get him the ball. His season totals were really, really solid for a rookie: 170 carries, 695 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. He also had, 56 catches for 514 receiving yards and another 3 touchdowns receiving.
Only five other running backs had rookie seasons statistically better than that. Only Edgerrin James was younger in his rookie season, in which he statistically matched or over-did Bernard’s rookie year. Gio was a top-20 running back last season, scoring at least ten points in seven games, including a 21-point game against the Miami Dolphins.
Bernard is in for a huge season with the Bengals. After his impressive rookie campaign which totaled eight touchdowns, the team site has reported that Bernard will get around 230 carries, and 70 catches. Three hundred touches for a player with Bernard’s unique skill-set, could lead to a scary fantasy season. He’s a quality, mid-tier RB1 and a top RB2 option.
Average Draft Position (ADP) - 22
A.J. Green, Wide Receiver
What is there to say about this kid, other than he’s more of an animal than the logo of his team. Green has been a fantasy freak in his three-year career thus far, never totaling less than 1,057 yards and scoring at least seven touchdowns a year. In a point-per-reception league, Green is one of the top options being that he’s caught 90+ balls the last two seasons, and could very well be in for his first 100-catch year.
The team website is reporting that Green has added six pounds to his frame, mostly in the upper body, because he wants to get more physical so he can better beat coverage at the line of scrimmage. That is scary. Whether it is Dalton or rookie A.J. McCarron throwing the ball, Green is going to get his points, that is not a question. The question is, how much more will he get this season? Green was ranked the third most consistent wide out in 2013, getting at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in 11 games last year.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 15
Marvin Jones, Wide Receiver
Define break-out season, and Marvin Jones had that last year. Fully understanding that he had four touchdowns in one game, he still scored ten on the season. After a rookie year in which he only had 18 catches, ten touchdowns is pretty spectacular. Jones was one of only three players in the league to score at least six times while playing less than 725 snaps (555).
Jones was the 22nd best wide out last season, with a total of 128 fantasy points, while only having 51 catches. Players like Victor Cruz and Marques Colston both had less points with over 20 more catches than Jones. The second-year pro had nine scores inside the red zone, second to only Dez Bryant.
The Bengals have a new offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson who is a very run-oriented coach, and has stated that the Bengals will run more. With additions on the offensive line, and a second-round pick this season at running back, coupled with Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jones’ touchdowns will certainly go down, but his catches can go up.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 143
Jermaine Gresham, Tight End
Right now, Gresham is listed as the number one tight end on the roster. How long that will last, remains to be seen. Tyler Eifert had a pretty rock-solid rookie season. However, both tight ends had almost identical numbers, so they are making a concerted effort to distribute them the ball equally, or so it seems. With the similar numbers, Gresham is a much more consistent tight end, or so eDraft’s Player Consistency Charts say. Gresham was at 50% consistency, 12th in the league. On the flip side, Eifert was only at 33%.
Gresham is good for around 600 yards and four to six touchdowns a season. Tight end isn’t the strong suit of this team in terms of sheer fantasy points, as players like Scott Chandler an Joesph Fauria both scored more than he did. When you’re sitting pretty in your draft in the tenth round, and realize, “OH S*%T! I DON’T HAVE A TIGHT END,” Gresham is your guy.
Average Draft Position- Not Ranked
Biggest Fantasy Surprise- Jeremy Hill, Running Back
In OTAs, and according to OurLads.com, Hill was the second back behind Gio, and ahead of Green-Ellis. In past years, Green-Ellis was the back that got the third-down and goal-line carries. Enter Jeremy Hill, who is taller and bigger than Green-Ellis, and has the credentials of a 2013 second-round pick. With that being said, Hill should be taking over Green-Ellis’ duties and taking a share of his touchdowns. CBSSports.com has Hill projected to rush for between 530 yards and score between five and seven touchdowns.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Running Back
Let’s be honest, the guy’s name sounds like a foot infection, not a law firm like his nickname implies. Here’s the thing, eDraft’s mock draft tool has him (for some unknown reason) being drafted, at an average position of 202. A player that is almost sure-fire to get cut getting drafted is peculiar.
The Bengals have Gio Bernard, second-round pick Jeremy Hill and special teams captain Cedric Peerman at running back. Not to mention that the team can save over $2 million in cap space by cutting him. Barring an unforeseen injury, Green-Ellis very well could be a free agent in the NFL, and should be in your fantasy league.
How Their Schedule Impacts Fantasy Value
The orange and black have the 23rd easiest schedule in the league next season, with an opponent winning percentage of .469. They are in a division in which they’ve actually had problems the past three seasons, win only eight wins and ten losses. However, tough games like Carolina, Atlanta and the Colts are all at home, which could help. Taking everything into account, their schedule doesn’t help their value, nor does it raise it.