Once again — and especially after losing Demarcus Ware — the Dallas Cowboys are headed for mediocrity. Their defense is one of (if not the worst) in the league, but the offense has enough firepower to keep them competitive in games.
The offense is especially important for fantasy football purposes. There’s great options at every positions for the Cowboys, so let’s look at who you should be targeting in drafts from Dallas.
Tony Romo, Quarterback
Romo is perennially underrated in fantasy. Despite throwing 31 touchdowns in two of his past three seasons (and 28 in 2012), Romo always goes later in drafts than most quarterbacks, and once again, he’s worth targeting as a QB1 in the eighth or ninth rounds. He still has Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to, and since Dallas isn’t going to be stopping opposing offenses, he’ll have to throw the ball to keep them in games. The interceptions are a bit of a turn-off, but he was the fifth most consistent quarterback last year, according to our metrics. You can’t turn away from that.
DeMarco Murray, Running Back
Out of nowhere, Murray is suddenly in his fourth NFL season. It seems like he just came out of Oklahoma, but now well into his career, Murray has shown that he can be a feature back when healthy. Potential owners should pick a good backup knowing that Murray is going to miss some time at some point. But in 14 games last year, he ran for 1,121 yards and nine touchdowns. It was also the second time in three years that he’s averaged more than 5.2 yards per carry. He’s also caught more and more passes from Romo in each year that he’s been in the league, making him a great RB2 option despite the injury risk.
Dez Bryant, Wide Receiver
At this point, we all know what Dez Bryant can do. Now that he’s gotten all of his off-the-field issues settled (presumably), he’s showcasing his talent and is now one of the three best fantasy receiver options. He’s scored a combined 25 touchdowns in the past two seasons, and scored nine in 15 games in 2011. Bryant has the upside to be the top receiver in the league this year, so if he’s there in drafts and you want to go wide receiver early, he’s as safe as they come.
Terrance Williams, Wide Receiver
After Bryant and Witten, the options for Romo to throw to really drops off. Williams was serviceable last year, going for 736 yards and five touchdowns, but he was too inconsistent to be an every-week fantasy play. All of his touchdowns came in a six-week span, and he had three games with just one catch. With Miles Austin out of the picture in Dallas, Williams’ targets will get a slight bump, and he should be a better fantasy option, but he hasn’t shown the consistency so far to be anything more than a flex play.
Jason Witten, Tight End
Like Bryant, you already know what you’re getting from Witten. He’s always going to be a top-five tight end because of how often Romo targets him. His production dropped off last year in terms of yardage, but he scored his most touchdowns since 2010, and averaged 11.7 yards per catch. There’s no reason why Romo would all of a sudden look away from him. Witten will be right back in the mix with Vernon Davis and Antonio Gates once again.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Joseph Randle, Running Back
As soon as Murray goes down, Randle is going to be the first back to step in and take his carries. Lance Dunbar is right there on the depth chart too, but Randle was the favored back last year after Murray. He found his way into the end zone twice, and had two games of 53 and 65 rushing yards. If Murray were to miss six games like he did in 2012, Randle will be a great running back to use while he’s out.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Terrance Williams, Wide Receiver
Although he’s a flex option for the first few weeks, Williams could take a back seat to Devin Street or Cole Beasley at some point in the year. The Cowboys drafted Street in the fifth round, and he’ll presumably be the third option in the offense. He started 40 games in college, and comes in NFL-ready. Beasley also had 55 targets last year and scored two touchdowns. Williams doesn’t show anything on tape that makes him significantly better than either of them, especially Street, so over the course of the year, it’ll be interesting to see if any WR2 emerges from this offense.
How the Schedule Impacts Dallas' Fantasy Options
As I’ve written with all the NFC East teams, fantasy is at a premium because of the poor defenses in that division. Philadelphia was the fourth worst defense in terms of yards per game, and the Redskins allowed the second most points per game. However, other than a home game against the Colts and a road Thursday night game against the Bears, Dallas’s schedule is tough. It gets the 49ers at home in Week 1, then the Saints and Texans back-to-back in Weeks 4 and 5, then the Seahawks on the road in Week 6, and the Cardinals and the Jaguars (underrated defense this year) in Weeks 9 and 10.