~~It was the best of tight ends, and far from the worst tight ends. This tale of “pro bowl pass catchers” as Jordan Cameron would call them, is far from what Charles Dickens depicted when he described the plight of the French peasantry in the early years of the French revolution. Yet 2013 was a revolution of sorts for Denver’s Julius Thomas and Cleveland’s Cameron as both experienced by far the best year of their short careers.
Both drafted in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, Thomas and Cameron found their way onto fantasy draft boards in 2013, and the results were spectacular. In his third season out of USC, Cameron nabbed 80 receptions for 917 yards and eight scores within the league’s 11th ranked passing offense. Similarly in his third professional campaign but drafted out of Portland State University, Thomas accrued 65 receptions for 788 yards and 12 scores. Although both of these mastodons of the tight end position would be a worthwhile addition to nearly every fantasy team, most owners will be forced to choose one or the other. So who will it be, Cleveland’s master of the Dawg Pound? Or Peyton Manning’s 6’5” mile high monster?
The expectations for Denver’s 26 year old tight end have never been higher. Even Thomas himself has said that he “will be used more creatively this season” leading many to believe he will fill the shoes left vacant by Eric Decker who jetted off to New York in free agency. While Thomas is but one target in a crowded field of pass catchers, Adam Gage’s offense provides plenty of targets to go around.
Last season Denver led the league in total points and points per game with 606 total for an average of 37.9 per game. The team also led the league in total yards with 7,317, and passing yards and scores with 5,444 yards and 55 touchdowns. So even though Thomas will not see the volume of targets Cameron is expected to, he will be able to produce due to the pace of the Broncos’ offense.
Looking back at Thomas’ 2013 season, the tight end placed 3rd in fantasy with 144 total points and had seven games with greater than 10 points and two with more than 20 points scored. On the negative side, Thomas did have some questions with consistency as he missed two games due to injury, and had seven games with less than 10 points. Thomas’ major value is in the red zone where eight of his 12 touchdowns occurred. So long as Manning looks for his largest target when it matters most, Thomas will remain relevant in terms of fantasy.
Where Thomas is more of a boom or bust candidate due to his large volume of red zone targets, Cleveland’s tight end bases his success on productivity across the field of play. As the second leading receiver on the league’s 18th ranked offense, Cameron had nine games with five or more receptions, two games with 100 plus yards and two games in the 90 yard range. Though the Browns themselves were just 27th in scoring with 308 total points, the team was 11th in passing yardage and passing touchdowns with 4,040 and 26 touchdowns respectively.
The main concern with Cameron from a year ago is a shift in offensive philosophy. Gone are Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, and with them a pass-heavy offense. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has vowed to utilize free agent signee Ben Tate and implement a run-heavy offense. The antithesis of this theory would be that since Josh Gordon will not be suiting up for Cleveland this year, the majority of those targets will likely fall to Cameron.
While Cameron will be the focus of the Browns’ passing game this season, his numbers from 2013 are nothing to scoff at either. Placing 6th in fantasy scoring amongst tight ends with 127 points, Camron had five games with greater than 10 points and one game with over 20 points. Conversely, the Browns’ tight end had ten games with less than 10 points, and six games with less than five points scored. While Cameron’s overall point total is something to be proud of, his lack of week to week consistency is a major concern heading into 2014, especially as part of this new regime.
The final potential negative concerning Cameron involves not the tight end himself, but the man or men who will be throwing him the ball. No one knows if Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel will be the Browns’ gunslinger this season. A run heavy offense with only one vertical threat is one star you do not want to hitch your wagon to.
So which one of these titanic tight ends is worth the bang for your buck? Let us take a look at the tale of the tape. Peyton Manning or one of the Browns’ quarterbacks? That answer is simple. The league’s best offense in passing, total yards, and scoring? Point two for Julius Thomas. Finally, Thomas’ consistency on a week to week basis, higher potential for red zone success, and other team’s inability to center on him due to the other weapons on Denver’s offense make Julius Thomas the correct answer to this tight ended conundrum.
With two 100 plus yard games and one other with 96 yards, two multi touchdown games, and eight red zone scores, Julius Thomas is a better fantasy option for 2014 than Jordan Cameron. Drafting Thomas over Cameron as Charles Dickens would say is “a far, far better thing than I have ever done.”