The Kansas City Chiefs surprised fans last year with their success, making it to the playoffs before giving up a huge lead to the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card round. Kansas City definitely benefited from having an easy schedule after being one of the worst teams in the league in 2012, but played the teams they had on the schedule and excelled.
Jamaal Charles had a huge year from a regular football and a fantasy perspective, and the rest of the offense was fairly disappointing. While maintaining a strong defense, the Chiefs’ offense still doesn’t look promising this year. But is there any value to be salvaged on the Chiefs besides Charles?
Alex Smith, Quarterback
Plain-and-simple, Smith is nothing more of a backup quarterback or a second option in leagues that start two quarterbacks. Smith was by no means terrible last year, but he simply doesn’t throw the ball enough to be a QB1 option. He had a career-high 3,313 yards last year and 23 touchdowns, and still was 13th in fantasy points among all quarterbacks. What Smith did last year was likely his ceiling, too. He’s a serviceable backup though with Charles to throw to out of the backfield and doesn’t turn the ball over often.
Jamaal Charles, Running Back
Everyone who played fantasy football knows what Charles did last year. He scored 19 total touchdowns, and was not only the top rushing option in Kansas City, but he was the leading receiver for the team and was targeted 104 times, only one behind Dwayne Bowe. Durability is a concern for Charles, who has carried the ball 544 times combined in the past two seasons. The opportunity certainly won’t decrease in the rushing game, but it’s tough to see him getting 104 targets again. Still, as long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock to be a top-five fantasy back this year.
Dwayne Bowe, Wide Receiver
Once again, Bowe frustrated fantasy owners. It’s now been two seasons since he had a 1,000-yard year, and has just eight combined touchdowns in the past two seasons. With Smith at the helm, don’t expect Bowe to start improving. Smith’s passes generally are short-distance throws that are more for managing field position and setting up runs for Charles. Bowe is a nice flex option because of how many targets he gets, and he is a nice red zone threat for the Chiefs, but no one should expect him to be a WR2 or draft him as one.
Donnie Avery, Wide Receiver
Except in the deepest of leagues, Avery isn’t a viable fantasy option. He has just six total touchdowns in the past three seasons, and last year had just two touchdowns and 596 yards. Avery is hardly involved in the offense, and barring injury to Bowe, he won’t be targeted enough to be even a top three fantasy receiver.
Anthony Fasano, Tight End
Like Avery, Fasano is only worth something in leagues that start two tight ends. He played in just nine games last year, but even in 2012, when he played in all 16 games he went for just 332 yards and five touchdowns. He does have a seven-touchdown season under his belt, but that was all the way back in 2008 with the Miami Dolphins. Fasano could get more involved in the offense this year, but in drafts, he should either be undrafted or a second tight end option.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Cyrus Gray, Running Back
Gray should obviously not be drafted in any leagues, because Charles is going to hog all the carries. But I’m a big believer in Gray’s talent. In college with Texas A&M, he had 12 touchdowns in each of his last two years in 2010 and 2011. With the Chiefs, Gray only has 16 total carries. His legs are still fresh, and if Charles goes down for any reason, Gray is first in line to get the touches. He’s a must-own for those who draft Charles early on, and he could be a surprise if Charles misses any time.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Dwayne Bowe, Wide Receiver
This shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Last year, Bowe was 30th in the league in our consistency metric among wide receiver, despite being targeted 105 times last year. In 2012, Bowe dropped all the way to 81st overall in consistency, coming in at just 15 percent. He’s been targeted at least 100 times in all but one of his seven years in the league, but has never recorded more than 86 catches — a number he recorded in 2008. Bowe’s fantasy career is officially over.
How the Schedule Impacts Their Outlook
Outside of divisional matchups, the Chiefs will have a tougher go of it this year compared to last. Despite the Broncos upgrades this offseason on defense, they are still vulnerable to the run. The Chargers and Raiders also have sub-par defenses. But other than that, they play the NFC West this year (Seahawks, 49ers, Rams and Cardinals), as well as the AFC East, which means facing the Bills and Jets. They also have a randomly scheduled game against the Steelers in Week 16, which is a tough matchup as well. But Charles will still get his touches no matter what, and the games against divisional opponents will be good opportunities for him to pick up big yardage.