The San Francisco 49ers have won a ridiculous 36 games over the last three seasons, but that hasn't translated to consistency on the offensive side of the ball...especially through a fantasy lens.
This might all change in 2014, as the 49ers have surrounded recently extended Colin Kaepernick with a plethora of weapons on offense.
Here is your 2014 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Preview. Check out our NFL page for more team previews.
Colin Kaepernick, Quarterback
Not only is Kaepernick a divisive figure around the football world, his fantasy outlook brings up the same debate among those who play this fake game. Will he improve on a inconsistent fantasy season last year? What is his ceiling? What about his floor? These are all questions that one must answer prior to selecting Kaepernick in re-draft leagues.
Fortunately for those who have faith in this dynamic quarterback to succeed from a fantasy aspect, his 2014 outlook is darn good at this point. In addition to the 49ers looking to open up the offense a great deal this season, Kaepernick now has multiple options to throw the ball to.
Remember, the only two receivers on the 49ers roster last season who played more than 300 snaps were Anquan Boldin and Kyle Williams. Just think about that for a second. Now flush with options after the return of Michael Crabtree from injury and acquisition of Steve Johnson from the Bills, San Francisco's passing attack should be much improved this upcoming season.
For his part, Kaepernick still finished as a QB1 option last season. The largest issue with him was a lack of consistency, as over 40 percent of his fantasy points came in less than one handful of outings. With San Francisco's offense trending more to the pass, this shouldn't be an issue. Look for Kaepernick to finish as a top-six fantasy quarterback in 2014. ADP: 80
Frank Gore, Running Back
We have all been waiting for the 31-year-old Gore to fall off the map, but he keeps delaying the inevitable. Gore was still able to net 1,300 total yards and eight touchdowns in 2013, his ninth in the NFL. In the process, the aging running back ranked 13th among fantasy backs last year.
Unfortunately, 2014 may very well be the year that Gore takes a step back on the field. While he should still be a productive running back, San Francisco has made it quite clear that it intends to share carries this upcoming season. The selection of Carlos Hyde in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft and return of Marcus Lattimore from a redshirt rookie year pretty much guarantees a lighter workload for Gore. In addition to that, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James are going to have to get their touches.
This is all an indication that Gore shouldn't be relied on as much more than a top-tier FLEX option, which would be a dramatic decrease from his ranking last year. Based on Gore's current ADP, you should either consider passing up on him completely or stream 49ers running backs. ADP: 47
Michael Crabtree, Wide Receiver
When healthy, Crabtree has been Kaepernick's favorite target in the passing game. He's averaging 5.6 receptions, 77.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns in the 11 games that he's been on the field with Kaepernick under center. Those are WR1 numbers right there. If Crabtree receives the necessary targets in 2014, he should finish among the top-12 fantasy options.
The issue with this is that Crabtree likely won't receive as many targes as he's seen in the past with Kaepernick. The primary reason for that is an increase in weapons at the wide receiver position. In Crabtree's last full season back in 2012, he finished as the 14th-ranked fantasy tight end. That's pretty much his ceiling at this point. ADP: 44
Anquan Boldin, Wide Receiver
Boldin is an interesting option. On average, he's going in the 10th round of standard 12-team re-drafts. This despite the fact that he finished as the 15th-ranked fantasy receiver last year. As with Crabtree, the biggest issue with Boldin is going to be the number of targets he receives. He ranked 21st in targets from the wide receiver position in 2014 at about eight per game. It's hard to imagine those numbers being duplicated this year.
With an inticipated decrease (based on advanced metrics) of two targets per outing, Boldin goes from a top-15 fantasy option to a top-25 fantasy receiver. Even then, he's an absolute steal. ADP: 110
Vernon Davis, Tight End
Honestly, this all depends on how Davis' contract situation plays out. Recent reports indicate that he doesn't plan on attending training camp until he receives a new contract. The longer Davis holds out, the less valuable he becomes as a fantasy option.
The Pro Bowler finished second behind Jimmy Graham among tight ends in fantasy points last season. If he's ready to go Week 1, there is no reason to believe that Davis won't be a top-four tight end in 2014. All the indicators are there for success. In addition to ranking second in fantasy points last year, Davis was able to put up those numbers despite ranking 14th among tight ends in targets. Overall, he was the second-most consistent fantasy option from this position. All these are indicators of continued success. ADP: 43
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Carlos Hyde, Running Back
Reports from 49ers camp suggest that Hyde has been incredibly impressive thus far. While it's important to take that with a grain of salt, the 2014 second-round pick fits San Francisco's down-hill running scheme to a T.
As Gore's eventual replacement, we can expect San Francisco to give Hyde numerous opportunities as a rookie. Look for between eight and 10 touches per game and some solid goal-line opportunities. Pick Hyde up as a bench option and check in on him early in the season. Based on his touches, there is a chance that the rookie could be a solid bye-week replacement at the FLEX position.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Steve Johnson, Wide Receiver
Fantasy football is a numbers game. And our primary focus here has been the number of targets a specific pass catchers are going to receive. Unfortunatley for Johnson, he's the No. 4 option on a really good offense. This means that there is no reason to expect any fantasy value from him. Sure Johnson was a decent fantasy option in Buffalo, but that was when he was the No. 1 target. With a dramatic decrease in targets this year, Johnson is likely nothing more than a bye-week or waiver-wire addition in standard 12-team leagues.
How the Schedule Impacts Their Outlook
A great deal. Is that a long enough answer? Not only will San Francisco have to go up against the Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks a total of six times, it also has to match up with the AFC West. In addition to that, the 49ers will square off with vastly improved defenses in the form of the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. Definitely take into account San Francisco's schedule when coming to an ultimate conclusion about who to draft, especially Kaepernick.