Most of you are preparing for your 2014 fantasy football drafts right now. Some of you have jumped the gun (raises hand) and conducted your drafts, which is a tad risky considering a lot can happen between now and Week 1.
In any event, here is our list of the top 75 receivers heading into the 2014 campaign. We will provide detailed information regarding WR1 options below.
In addition to that, we will provide you with lists of the following.
* High-upside fantasy options.
* Veterans set for regressions
* Top rookies
Elite Wide Receiver Options
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
The gap between Johnson and other elite fantasy options is closing considerably right now. No longer can we look at it being him and everyone else. That's something that you must take into account when conducting fantasy drafts leading up to Week 1. Is Johnson a better value in Round 1 than someone like Randall Cobb in Round 3? Answer this question and one of your first major tasks as a fantasy football owner will be completed.
Johnson, still the top fantasy option, ranked ninth among receivers in targets last season. But he caught just 54 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. With the additions of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron in Detroit's passing game, it makes sense to expect Johnson's targets to decrease. With that said, he's also going to put up a higher catch percentage, especially if Matthew Stafford performs better at quarterback. Johnson ranked third among receivers in fantasy points last season, which is pretty much his floor in 2014.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
The No. 1 overall fantasy receiver from a season ago, there is no reason to expect Thomas to take much of a step back this season. Denver lost Eric Decker in free agency and replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders from the Pittsburgh Steelers. It also added rookie Cody Latimer in the second round of the 2014 draft. These additions/subtraction should offset one another.
In the grand scheme of things, Thomas might very well have a better 2014 campaign. He ranked just 13th in targets, but finished No. 5 overall in consistency at 69 percent. With a target/TD ratio of around 12.9. it appears that Thomas' fantasy production from a season ago might have actually been lower than what to expect moving forward. While I have a hard time putting anyone ahead of Calvin Johnson, there is a decent chance Thomas accomplishes that feat for a second consecutive season.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Potentially the most-talented receiver in the NFL, things are really starting to come together for Bryant in Dallas. He has put up 185 receptions for 2,600 yards and 25 touchdowns over the course of the last two seasons. Consistency is what makes him a tremendous option in fantasy football, as Bryant ranked second in this category last season and eighth the season before.
When selecting a receiver not named Calvin Johnson, this is an important statistic to look at. It means that Bryant will consistently provide you with WR1 numbers throughout the course of the season, while failing to struggle when it counts the most. For that, Bryant should very well be a top-tier draft target.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
The one issue with expecting a repeat performance from Green is the fact that he ranked third among NFL wide receivers in targets last season and was still within just 14 fantasy points of finishing outside of the top-eight. Now that Hue Jackson has replaced Jay Gruden as the Bengals offensive coordinator, we can expect Cincinnati's passing game to be a bit more balaned in 2014. After all, Dalton targeted Green 30 percent of the time last season.
Even though we can look at indicators to draw a conclusion, all Green has done since he entered the NFL is produce. He's averaging 87 receptions for 1,277 yards and 10 touchdowns per season. That's elite WR1 numbers right there.
Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
Some may draw the conclusion that Alshon Jeffery's emergence could very well lead to a downtick in production from Marshall. But if it was going to happen, last season would have been the time...especially with Jay Cutler sidelined for some time now. Marshall is averaging 109 receptions for over 1,400 yards and 11.5 touchdowns in his two seasons with the Bears.
He ranked fourth in the NFL in targets, caught over 60 percent of the passes thrown in his direction and finished as the No. 5 overall fantasy receiver. Those are all elite fantasy numbers right there.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Jones was leading the NFL in receiving when he went down with a broken foot last season. He's about as dynamic as any receiver in the league and consistently makes the contested catch against defensive backs down the field. This is one of the primary reasons that Jones has taken over for Roddy White as Matt Ryan's favorite target. This issue with Jones is that he's boasts a 54 percent consistency mark over the past two seasons. In reality, it's been somewhat boom or bust for Jones since the start of the 2013 season. This puts him a little bit further down on my list.
Clear WR1 Options
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
Jeffery ranked 11th in targets last season, but finished the season as the No. 8 ranked fantasy receiver. If that's any indication, he's likely going to increase his fantasy production a great deal in 2014. Expect Jeffery, who caught 60 percent of the passes thrown in his direction, to come close to challenging Marshall as the top fantasy producer on the Bears this upcoming season. In fact, it's a bet I am willing to take.
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
Of all the receivers who finished as WR1 options last year, Brown caught the highest percentage of passes thrown in his direction. He was also handcuffed to an extent by the fact that Emmanuel Sanders was targeted 112 times throughout the season. I fully expect Brown to see an uptick in targets, which will lead to a higher fantasy ranking. It's simple math.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
Cobb struggled with injuries throughout the entire 2013 campaign but when he was on the field, he put up some staggering numbers. He caught 70 percent of the passes thrown in his direction over the past two seasons. Now fully healthy and expected to make a strong impact as a slot guy, Cobb will likely see 130-plus targets in 2014. If so, he's a clear WR1 option.
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Some may conclude that Nelson's performance over the past few seasons was due to the presence of Aaron Rodgers under center. While the numbers may very well indicate that, Nelson has shown himself to be a truly elite wide receiver in the NFL. He caught 67 percent of the passes thrown in his direction last season, 65 percent when Rodgers was sidelined. That tells us an entirely different story. As it is, Rodgers is back healthy and Nelson (fresh off a new contract) is primed for another stellar season.
High-Upside Fantasy Options
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers
DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins
Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams
Vets Set for Regression
Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
Wes Welker, Denver Broncos
Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
Eric Decker, New York Jets
Rookie Rankings
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneeres
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers