No matter your teams record the season prior, this time of year gives every fan a combination of hope and optimism, which as a Vikings fan, is exactly why I’ve been following the NFL draft with a passion for over a decade. Like clockwork, the exact moment the football season ends, the film study, scouting reports, and mock draft season begins. A long and tedious process has its rewards though, as it sets you ahead of the curve as a talent evaluator, and combined with recent league trends gives you an idea of what players actually have the transferable talent to make it at the next level.
Still, no matter how much research and film watching you do, its inevitable your mock draft will be up in smoke by the time the first 10 picks are off the board, because every year some team manages to come out from right-field and shock the draft community with a pick that leaves our jaw dropped.
Last year, it only took three picks until the Miami Dolphins added some spice to the draft by trading up nine slots to select Dion Jordan. In 2012, the Seahawks showed us how much the league values pass rushers, after they reached on Bruce Irvin with the 15th overall selection. One of my favorite draft day surprises was in 2006, when the Bills selected safety Donte Whitner with the eighth pick, even though he wasn’t being projected until the late first round. This taught me at an early age that it only takes one team to fall in love with a prospect, throwing the “consensus value” out the window. Whitner has gone on to have a solid career, while the jury is still out on the other two prospects mentioned above.
As we approach the moment the Houston Texans officially go on the clock in the 2014 NFL draft, Ive learned to keep a constant open-mind on picks and teams, as the NFL is in a constant state of evolution. But, the one thing I can sit here and tell you I know for sure, is that when it comes to the NFL draft, nothing is for sure.
1. Seven Offensive Lineman Drafted in First Round
Supply and demand as the saying goes. In a league where passing has become a hotter trend than a 15-year old Snap Chatting a selfie of her Starbucks, protecting the quarterback goes hand-in-hand. Every good coach knows the key to winning starts up front, and thats why they are in a constant search to upgrade their trenches. In fact, the last insider I talked to regarding the position said teams should spend their first-round pick on an offensive lineman once every five-years, no matter the situation.
History shows us the same thing last year with five offensive linemen being selected in the first 11 picks, and nine total being drafted once day-one had concluded. Although this years draft isn’t as top-heavy with the amount of premium guards like Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack, it's none the less a a very talented and deep offensive line class all the way around. I’m counting on seven linemen to hear their name called in the first round to keep the trend alive. Tackles Jake Mathews, Greg Robinson, Taylor Lewan, and Zach Martin should be off the board at the half way point. From there, expect three of these four to be selected; Morgan Moses, Joel Bitonio, Cyrus Kouandjio, and Xavier Sua-Filo.
With other highly-graded guards and centers in the draft like David Yankey and Weston Richburg available and tempting teams, seeing more than seven lineman drafted isn’t something I would bet against. However, if I’m in Vegas and the over/under is at 6.5, my house, my kids, and my reputation would be on the line.
2. Eric Ebron Falls Further Than Anticipated
This is no knock on Ebron the prospect, who is clear and away the best talent for his position. This is once again simply looking at the trends. Last year at this time, people were certain that top-tight end Tyler Eifert would be a top-12 selection. When draft day came and went however, Eifert didn’t hear his name called until selection 21. In no way should “dropping” to 21 be considered a blemish on Eifert’s potential as a prospect, but it's worth noting when many media members had him a lock to be drafted much earlier. The year prior Coby Fleener was the first tight end taken by the Colts with the 34th pick. n 2011, Kyle Rudolph was the first of his peers to be selected with the Vikings 43rd pick. This trend continues, in 2010 with Jermaine Gresham picked with the 21st selection, Brandon Pettigrew selected with the 20th pick (2009), Dustin Keller with the 30th pick (2008), and Greg Olsen with the 31st pick in 2007.
With the jury out on the first few names, the last half of those names have failed too “wow” many of us, as well as the team they were drafted by. Not many will look you with a straight face and say the Bengals, Lions, and Jets would use their first-round pick on a tight end again, if they could do it all over. History doesn’t lie, and it's screaming a message at us loud and clear. The message is to wait on this position until later rounds, where you clearly limit your risk while garnishing more value, and teams know this. While the case can be made Ebron is a better prospect than the names above, I’m not foolish enough to think that he will buck the trend of his position falling on draft day. While many people have him mocked to teams like the Falcons (6), Bills (9), and say the Giants (12) are the furthest he falls, I see him lasting longer until the late-teens. The Ravens (17), Jets (18), Cardinals (19), and Packers (21) are where I have him projected, simply based off the history of drafting the position.
3. Copy Cat League
It happens every year, the Super Bowl winner gets slapped with a target on their back, as well as having all 31 other teams copy their recipe for success. The Seahawks bulldozed their way to the top with one of the best running games in the league, as well as a ferocious defense. More specifically, in a pass-heavy league, Seattle’s secondary was the heart of its team, with big, physical, and talented players at cornerback and safety.
Kenny Vaccaro was no surprise to be drafted on day-one last year, but when Eric Reid and Matt Elam snuck their way in as well, it matter people think. With an extremely deep draft class, many people are wondering what names and positions will be worthy of a first-round pick, and I’m here to tell you safety is one that every team now highly covets. This means besides Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix who is a lock to be taken early, other safeties like Jimmie Ward, Calvin Pryor, and Deone Bucannon will all be fought over with the last-10 picks of day one.
2. Trade Ya
Due to the record 98 underclassmen declaring for the draft, the 2014 draft class is the deepest class we’ve had in years. With so many quality players available in every round, teams are sure to attempt to stockpile picks in the later rounds by trading down. The first thing any average joe will think out loud is, “if everyone wants to trade down then who’s going to trade up?” A legitimate concern for teams desperate to add more picks, however, make no mistake there will be still be a handful of teams that are in “win now” mode ready to trade up to garnish the last piece of their puzzle.
The other major element in this scenario is the supply and demand aspect. This translates to the compensation teams will be willing to take in years past will be vastly lower, because of the leagues awareness of such a deep class. So while I expect their to be a record number of trades this draft weekend, the decreased amount of compensation you will see teams receive in return, is the secret catalyst to this equation.
1. Quarterback League
During this draft process a lot went into teams like the 49ers and Seahwaks and their blueprint for success, as they built a nasty defense, and got a quarterback late in the draft for cheap. This left many people with the hot topic that teams, specifically in the top-eight will copy that path passing on a signal caller early, while focusing on other positions of need. It's a point that has substance and should be taking into consideration, in fact there will be teams who do follow this approach and hope for the same success.
Athough we haven’t seen football action in months, just turn on a mid season replay and you’ll quickly be snapped back to reality. The truth is and always was, we watch a league driven by the man under center. It's no secret why the same teams make it deep into the playoffs every year. Its a combination of good coaching, good drafting, and one hell of a quarterback, and general managers know this. If you don’t have a quarterback, you need one, and if you do have one, you better get another one just incase.
As much life has been pumped into the notion that teams are willing to wait on a potential franchise quarterback, I’m here to deflate that premise in one quick swoosh. With at least four quarterbacks who are projected to go in the first round with Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, and Teddy Birdgewater and a bounty of quarterback needy teams early in the draft, I see no scenario where all four of these players are still available following the Cardinals 20th pick. With the Texans assumed to take Clowney, teams like Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and even St. Louis will all be ready to pounce on a potential franchise quarterback.
Even with blue-chip players like Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack, and Jake Mathews also being projected early, on the lowest end there will still be two quarterbacks selected in the first eight picks. In that scenario, other teams will assume the Cardinals (20) and Browns (26) will be salivating at the scenario of one of the four dropping into their lap, which is why at least one quarterback starved team will trade back into the first ahead of them, to get their guy. That leaves the fourth and final prospect landing in Arizona, Cleveland, or a third wild-card team that trades back up as well.
The message is a simply one. Its already hard enough to have your first-round quarterback pan out (25% of the time), its even harder to have success with a quarterback drafted anywhere later than that. Sure Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are nice stories, but are general managers really going to bank their franchise (and their job) by betting against the odds? The world will find out who’s feeling lucky in three days, during the 2014 NFL draft.