College: California

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 257 pounds

Strengths

Size: At his current size, Rogers is primed for the receiving threat tight end, which is where he can see success. He has the ability to add more weight, as he was heavier when he was more of a traditional tight end in 2012. Rogers has the size to create mismatches, especially if he plays in the slot more as he did in 2013 at Cal.

Upside: It’s tough gauging Rogers’s ability to the maximum. He dealt with coaching changes, scheme changes, and less than adequate quarterback play in his years at Cal. A lot has been holding Rogers back, but at the next level he could flourish with consistency.

Weaknesses

Experience: A big part of Rogers’s upside was his lack of experience, and a consistent environment at Cal. He only caught passes in 2012, and 2013, and played in different offenses each year. He left Cal early, when he really needed more time to develop, become better prepared, and get some consistency.

Athletic Ability: While Rogers has the size and upside, he really isn’t super athletic for an NFL tight end. He didn’t test in the top groups for his position at the combine, and it shows on film. He’s got average speed, and average, well, everything. At best Rogers is an average athlete and that can hinder him in the NFL.

Blocking: Downfield blocking? Check. Run blocking? Check. Pass blocking? Check. Rogers struggles with each and every one of these. He struggles to sustain blocks and often leaves his teammates out to dry, fixing this should be at the top of his list moving forward.

NFL Comparison, Ed Dickson, Baltimore Ravens

Neither tight end is super athletic, and neither tight end are dominant receiving threats. Although Dickson was a third round pick, and it’s incredibly unlikely Rogers goes that high, they are similar players. They both struggle with their blocking, and aren’t great receiving threats, Rogers could find more success if he fine tones his skills and finds the consistency in the NFL he never had in college.

Draft Outlook

Rogers’s outlook isn’t great, especially in a draft as deep as this one. At best Rogers could go in the fifth round, but he’s likely a late sixth rounder to undrafted free agent. Rogers has plenty of upside, but in a deep draft, upside won’t drive him up boards. If he goes undrafted, Rogers will be a highly sought after free agent.

Best Fits

The New England Patriots have been stockpiling tight ends over the last few years, and they need a consistent receiving option outside of Rob Gronkowski. Most of their tight ends outside of Gronkowski are blocking tight ends, and bringing in someone like Rogers who can develop over time would be greatly beneficial for both parties.