2014 NFL Draft Stock Watch: This Week's Risers and Fallers, Version 4.0

By Matt Johnson on Monday, September 16th 2013
2014 NFL Draft Stock Watch: This Week's Risers and Fallers, Version 4.0

We are now three weeks into the college football season and while everyone starts to turn their attention to early Heisman and BCS talk, the real focus goes directly to the 2014 NFL Draft. As debate rages on about the quarterback class, who should be taken first overall and all of the sleepers that we have our eyes on. After a great week of college football, here are three prospects who saw their draft stock rise and three players who took a hit this week that need to recover.

Risers

Brett Hundley Quarterback, UCLA Bruins

Things can change in an instant and we saw that again this week when the Bruins took on Nebraska this weekend. Hundley has been praised for his great tools but we always want to see how the young quarterbacks stack up against top-25 opponents.

The atmosphere was even more emotional for the Bruins and Hundley this weekend as not even a week ago wide receiver Nick Pasquale was killed in an accident. The team played with heavy hearts and you could see they weren’t playing at high level trailing 14-3 entering the second quarter. Hundley had an interception and the Bruins offense was invisible for the first 15 minutes, but then things changed. For the final three quarters we saw new life from the Bruins and a promising future for Hundley. After struggling with his touch and decision-making in the first quarter, Hundley looked like one of the best players in the country. He showed great touch on the deep ball, he sat in the pocket and progressed through his reads. Hundley would finish the day completing 16 of 24 passes with three touchdowns and an interception. He also added 61 rushing yards, but what really stood out was his sharp throws down the field and accuracy he put on each ball.

We saw great signs from Hundley in this game, a display of just how good he can be and why so many are high on him as an NFL quarterback prospect. He has continued to make improvements from game to game but it wasn’t just the physical tools that stood out today. Hundley’s ability to after a tragedy, then lead a comeback and win the game 41-21. This was just an amazing example of Hundley’s leadership and ability to stay strong under pressure. He has all the tools to be a great quarterback prospect but it is the mental aspect that make him a special player. Hundley is just a redshirt sophomore but if he continues to play near this level, he could declare for the 2014 NFL Draft and be a first-round selection.

Mike Evans Wide Receiver, Texas A&M Aggies

Without a doubt the game every college football fan and draft fanatic had their eye on was Alabama vs. Texas A&M. A rematch of last year’s battle where Johnny Manziel rolled over the Crimson Tide on his way to the Heisman. This was a high-scoring battle and while there was great quarterback play, it’s a receiver that stands out the most.

Manziel had an incredible game throwing for 464 yards and five touchdowns, but a lot of credit has to go to receiver Mike Evans. While Evans has never been praised for his speed, we saw his incredible size and hands on display. He turned seven receptions into a whopping 279 receiving yards and a touchdown. The 279 yards is even more noteworthy when you consider in the two games prior, he had a solid 239 receiving yards on the season. Evans lone touchdown came on a 95-yard bomb when he caught the ball at the 40 then sprinted down the field and broke two tackles to find the end zone. When he wasn’t sprinting down the sidelines, Evans was making leaping grabs to come down with the ball for the big play and keep the Aggies drive alive. Against a great Alabama defense, Evans took the national stage and crushed the Crimson Tide secondary. Manziel made some nice throws but the one player who stood out this entire week was Evans.

Evans was known entering the season but many saw him as a mid-round pick who lacks the speed to have a big role in the NFL. Now after making so many plays with his size, hands and speed there should no longer be a question. Evans play has catapulted him into the first-round discussion just three weeks into the season.

Marcus Mariota Quarterback, Oregon Ducks

Mariota has been one of the most debated quarterback prospects with opinions far apart. Some believe he is a top prospect with the chance to become the first overall pick in the 2014 draft, while others don’t see him as a first-round selection and just the beneficiary of the system and talent around him. For the first time, Mariota went to battle with an SEC defense with the chance to answer the critics and show off his talent.

The Ducks got off to a slow start and plenty of the blame fell on the shoulders of Mariota. Despite being set up in great field position on Oregon’s second drive, he overthrew two receivers including in the end zone. He didn’t show the same poise and accuracy we saw last season, his throws were off and he seemed a little rattled to begin the game. But after two failed drives, the Ducks flipped it into gear and cruised on their way to a victory. It turned into a blowout and the Ducks’ pulled their starters with a 59-7 lead entering the fourth quarter. In just three quarters of play, he finished with 456 and four touchdowns while picking apart the Volunteers’ secondary. He started the game completing just two of seven passes, but would go on to complete 21 of 26 passes the rest of the way. Some will point to the weapons around him who make big plays for him, but that is taking away credit from a great player. Mariota has speed, but he can kill you sitting in the pocket with his arm strength and timing. He gets rid of the ball quickly and delivers bullets across the middle which help players like De’Anthony Thomas make a big play. He has the patience to sit back and progress through his reads until he finds the open man for the big play. He showed today that he is excellent rolling out and throwing on the run, but he also knows how to fake out a defense as he did today which allowed him to throw to a wide-open John Mundt for the touchdown.

An argument could be made that while this was technically an SEC defense it was the Volunteers, a program that is in the midst of a rebuild and doesn’t have the talent or depth to compete with Oregon. That may have some truth to it, but watching the throws he made and the little adjustments he made play after play is what stands out. Mariota will always carry the “system” quarterback tag and that is something that will follow him all the way up to the draft. But Mariota is the real deal and he showed he makes great players even better.

Fallers:

Bradley Roby Cornerback, Ohio State Buckeyes

Before the year started, Roby was considered by many to be the best cornerback prospect in the 2014 class with the potential to emerge as a top-10 selection in April. But things got off to a rough start when Roby was arrested on battery charges, although they were later dropped. Roby couldn’t afford to have red flags on his resume, but with a clean year and great play he could overcome it.

The Buckeyes headed to California to take on the Bears this past week, but it is a performance Roby will want to forget but scouts will have in their mind. Roby has been solid this year as the shutdown corner for Ohio State, but just seemed out of it against California. He played in single coverage but was often beat deep, including two big touchdowns to receiver James Grison and Bryce Treggs. He would give some press but that didn’t seem to prevent Grison or Treggs from getting to the outside and beating him deep. Once he was beat deep, Roby seemed to just give up on the play and not try and go after his man. Cal is a rebuilding program and coming into the game Grisom was having a very quiet season. This could have been Roby’s chance to take advantage of a freshman quarterback, but instead he seemed out of it in what may have been the worst performance of his career.

Roby should bounce back from this putrid performance but the instances where he would give up on the play are certainly not something coaches like to see. He already had to overcome off-the-field questions and performances like this will only torpedo his draft stock. The Buckeyes next game comes against an inferior Florida A&M team that should be an easy matchup for Roby and Ohio State.

Devin Gardner Quarterback, Michigan Wolverines

Every year we like to find the athletic monster that plays the quarterback position, someone who if developed correctly could emerge as an excellent quarterback prospect. While Mariota has become that guy one other name everyone has kept an eye on is Gardner. The former receiver who switched to quarterback after Denard Robinson got hurt has shown flashes of brilliance, but everyone hoped there would be more consistency this season.

After struggling a bit through the air in the opener against Central Michigan, we saw the potential greatness that Gardner has against Notre Dame. He completed 63 percent of his passes for 294 yards and four touchdowns, while making one bad throw that resulted in an interception. But this week we all witnessed how raw Gardner is as a quarterback prospect and why he still has a long way to go if he wants to make it in the NFL. The Wolverines took on Akron this week and it ended up being a trap game for them, although they pulled out with the victory. Gardner completed just 16 of 30 passes for 248 yards with three interceptions. He got off to a great start with a 48-yard touchdown pass to Devin Funchess but things really went downhill from there. He once again dazzled with his feet rushing 10 times for 103 yards and a touchdown, but this was an ugly display of his skills as a quarterback. When pressured, he turns away from the play and really seems to lack great pocket awareness. Many of his interceptions come on questionable plays where he needs to just get rid of the football, or they just come on poor throws.

The raw tools are there for a coach to develop and work with but it is going to take a lot of time and patience before he can be considered a starter in the NFL. He has incredible mobility and great size but his mechanics, footwork and decision making need work. He is eligible for the 2014 draft but it would be a mistake for him to enter this early.

Colt Lyerla Tight End, Oregon Ducks

After the tight end position was revolutionized by players like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, teams have been looking for the next receiving threat. While he may not be as dangerous as Gronkowski or Graham, Lyerla has been skyrocketing up rankings and draft boards. But now three games into the season, Lyerla hasn’t shown the real progress everyone was hoping for.

One of the big questions people had about Lyerla heading into the season was how much he would be used in the offense. Lyerla brings incredible versatility to an offense, he can line up next to the tackle and help block, he can go outside and catch passes, or he can sit in the backfield and take handoffs. But he is still a work in progress and needs to develop his skills as a receiver, and this was going to be the year he would turn the talent into production.

Lyerla started the first two games and has two receptions for 26 yards, with an additional three carries for 17 yards and a touchdown. He had a chance to do more in the second game against Virginia, but three drops cost him dearly and he didn’t see many targets after that. Many were ready for him to bounce back this week against Tennessee but instead he didn’t see the field as we learned he didn’t dress due to “circumstances” but coach Mark Helfrich wouldn’t elaborate beyond that. Meanwhile backup tight end John Mundt finished the day with five receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns. This was a chance for a rebound game, but instead Lyerla was benched and another Oregon tight end went off for a big game. Lyerla explained after the game that he was sick and was frustrated that Helfrich called the reason “circumstances”.

We are now three games into the season and Lyerla has only played in two with six total touches for 43 yards and a touchdown. Draft writers and scouts wanted to see how his role would increase for this offense and how he would progress as a receiver. He still has at least ten games to prove himself and emerge as a first-round prospect, but the 2013 season has got off to a slow start for Lyerla.

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