Some sports legends are born; they are athletes blessed with the right genes, who developed at precisely the right time and, frankly, lived in the appropriate sports era. There was this guy named Michael Jordan. You may have heard of him.
Others are created through astounding achievements on the field, court or ice, overcoming great odds to establish legend and success. Uttering the simple name "Rudy" conjures up all sorts of feel-good, legendary memories for so many.
Still other sports legends, regrettably, are spawned by one simple but, ultimately, epic gaffe. You’ve familiar with Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman or Jackie Smith, no?
Unfortunately--or fortunately, depending on how fatalistic you tend to be--today we're addressing the biggest potential flops of this off-season's free agent signings, from a fantasy perspective. We'll begin with the premise that not all NFL free agent signings work out as hoped or intended. I know, I know, a bit of a reach.
Here are three fantasy skill position signings that just might not pan out as hoped or expected.
3. Knowshon Moreno, Running Back, Miami Dolphins
The 2013 campaign saw Moreno emerge--somewhat out of nowhere --to rank as the fifth highest scoring fantasy back in the league. He finished the 2012 year as the 35th fantasy back. All indications point to those 2013 numbers being inflated. It certainly doesn’t hurt being the bellcow back in history's most potent offense; he was on the field for 60% of the team's offensive snaps.
But give Knowshon credit; he took advantage of opportunity, as it came knocking on his door. Better said, his 'scissors' choice well outweighed the 'rock' and 'paper' selections of fellow Bronco backs Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman early in the season? Who knew so much would result from a simple hand game on the sideline?
No doubt the opportunity is there for Moreno to take the running back position's proverbial bull by the horns and hold onto it for good. Or would that be to take the dolphin by the fin? Either way, Knowshon outscored the combo Dolphin backfield of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas in fantasy points by 60 points, on over 260 fewer snaps. He should easily be the lead back, as he had the tools to run, pass block and catch out of the backfield with consistency and skill. Hey, if Peyton Manning trusts you on all three downs, you’re pretty good.
But take a look at the supporting cast. No one is suggesting that Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace must turn into Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas for Knowshon to have impressive fantasy numbers. Yet, slippage is inevitable. One reason Moreno played so many snaps was that he, at times, got stuck on the field. No, seriously. Denver ran that whole hurry-up, but don't hurry offense, without changing out personnel for entire series. It's laughable that Miami's scheme will mirror Denver's, beyond just the players on the field.
Tannehill will do enough to keep defenses honest; he completed 60% of his passes, with a 24 to 17 touchdown to interception ratio. Yet, his quarterback rating (QBR) came in at 27 amongst NFL quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus. Those sort of numbers aren’t the kind to completely open up the box, for running backs to scanter about easily into the secondary on a regular basis.
So, kids, sorry to burst anyone's fantasy bubble here, but the 27 year old Moreno will assuredly disappoint in 2014. Unless, he can, after all, figure out how to grab that dolphin by the fin.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back, Oakland Raiders
The man many call Pocket Hercules, Maurice Jones-Drew returns to the left coast for 2014 after the Jaguars chose not to retain his rights and resign him., MJD spent the first eight years of his fine career in Jacksonville, performing at a high level as the lead back. In a bit of a head-scratcher, the Raiders signed Jones-Drew to compete with returning oft-injured starter, Darren McFadden. Born in Oakland and playing collegiately at UCLA, his signing with Oakland is a homecoming of sorts.
Some may forget that during the 2009 and 2011 seasons, he finished as the third best scoring fantasy running back. His fantasy reliability for a several year stretch was undeniable. But injuries and too much tread on the tires—he led the league in rush attempts in 2011 and finished in the top 10 the prior two years to that—have significantly devalued his worth, both in real and fake football terms. Oh yeah; he also turned 29 this spring and had a career low yards per carry 3.5, during the 2013 year.
So, why did the Raiders sign him? Well, besides the Raiders being the Raiders, they also lost the services of Rashad Jennings, who signed a four year deal with the Giants. They retained McFadden, but he only averaged 3.3 YPC over the roughly 10 games he was healthy. Additionally, Marcel Reece remains in the mix; he played on 35% of snaps in 2013.
One can surmise that Jones-Drew took a bit of hometown discount in an already slow running back market, to finish his career in Oakland. And Oakland’s brass, lacking many quality running back free agent options, obliged by giving MJD opportunity to compete for playing time with the brittle Run DMC and the unproven Latavius Murray. Hell, it can’t get much worse, right? Hold on now.
Most experts say the Oakland offensive line doesn’t remind anyone of the Hall of Fame Washington Redskin “Hogs” offensive line of yore. Pro Football Focus rates out only one Raider lineman, center Stefen Wisniewski, as having a positive run block rating. They’ve just signed quarterback Matt Schaub, ostensibly to run the offense while Terrelle Pryor continues to demand a trade … or until he throws another pick six. Neither seems to provide opportunity to for increased running lanes on offense.
So questions remain. Will MJD supplant McFadden or hold off Murray for another year? Will he even get enough playing time to be fantasy relevant? Will his tire tread hold true for another 17 games? Will Al Davis roll over in his grave at the site of three injured backs in his backfield? All of these questions answered, and more, during the 2014 season, my friends.
1. Eric Decker, Wide Receiver, New York Jets
Pundits, experts and even this journalist [http://edraft.com/nfl/news/fantasy-impact-eric-decker-to-the-new-york-jets/] have pretty thoroughly documented--or might I say questioned--the notion that Eric Decker is anything more than a serviceable second receiver. Some have even taken steps to establish his numbers only exist because of a quarterback with a long forehead who loves Papa John's pizza. Decker's ability to perform like a No. 1 receiver for the Jets will be the only thing anyone gauges against the $36 million deal he signed with the Jets.
Going from Peyton to Geno Smith or Michael Vick is an obvious downgrade, Captain Obvious. Additionally, given the Jets commitment to the run game, and the fact the he'll now weekly face the opposition's top defensive back, it seems a stretch for Decker's fantasy numbers to do anything but tumble. And tumble significantly.
Decker was the ninth highest scoring fantasy receiver in 2013, with over 1,200 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Jets top three wideouts (Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson and Santonio Holmes) had 1,400 yards with six receiving scores. That number is a combined total. So, sure, a dropoff is pretty likely.
Decker was deemed the sexiest--yes, that comment is for the ladies--of the free agent bunch of receivers heading into the offseason. Fans of DeSean Jackson would debate that fact, but he also was expected by most to remain an Eagle. But I'd warn fantasy owners to temper his production prospects, at the least, and to expect significant numbers droppage at the most. Sorry, Eric. But hey, you've got your reality show to hang onto.