Every fantasy season, there’s always going to be one or two running backs who manage to break out and make owners feel dumb for passing on him in their drafts. In the NFL, players are always one injury away from getting more reps or they are already primed for a big year and no one knows it until players finally step on the field in Week 1.
In drafts, these are five running backs outside of the typical RB1 names who could have a huge year and catapult themselves up the rankings list as the season goes on.
5. Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints
Robinson will likely go undrafted in most fantasy leagues because he’s not a name the average NFL fan knows, but he’s an interesting guy to either take in the last two rounds or to keep an eye on in free agency. Robinson is currently behind Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas on the Saints’ depth chart, but by the middle of the season, Robinson could see some major playing time.
In the last three weeks of the regular season last year, he had 152 yards and a touchdown while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Ingram has not worked out as a pro back, failing to break five touchdowns in a single season and averaging 3.9 yards per carry in his first two years in New Orleans before missing five games last season.
Thomas has also failed to stay healthy, appearing in all 16 games last season but because he was dinged up, he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. In the past three seasons, Thomas has averaged just 528 yards per year.
Now with Darren Sproles out of the picture, Robinson could easily find carries in this offense should either Thomas or Ingram struggle or miss time. In an offense that is consistently one of the best in the league, even just 15 touches a game can mean a lot.
4. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots
Ridley was a first or second-round draft pick last season in most leagues. Owners were excited about his opportunity in New England, but he fumbled the fall far too much and Bill Belichick benched him in favor of Shane Vereen and LeGarrette Blount.
Now with Blount gone, Ridley could end up taking over the starting spot on the Patriots again. With Belichick, it’s hard to ever get consistent touches, but it’s likely that Ridley and Vereen will likely be splitting the majority of the touches. Even in his abysmal year last season, Ridley managed to rip off four-straight games of double-digit fantasy points from Week 6 to Week 9 (including two games of 20-plus points).
Even with the benching, Ridley was 26th in the league in total carries, according to our premium statistics (paid subscription required); higher than Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati and Blount. If Ridley can just hold on to the ball, he could get his old job back and quickly become an every-week starter.
3. Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans
I went more in-depth on Sankey’s fantasy value a while back, but to summarize: Sankey has a ton of opportunities to produce in Tennessee. Most fantasy analysts and owners are writing off any rookies this year to have reliable fantasy value, but out of all the rookies, Sankey has the best opportunity to be fantasy-relevant.
His main competition for carries, Shonn Greene, hasn’t been productive for the last two years, and now has to recover from arthroscopic surgery in his right knee that he had last month. Outside of Greene, Dexter McCluster and Leon Washington don’t seem like real threats to me to take any value away from Sankey.
Last week Paul Kuharsky of ESPN’s NFL Nation called Greene one of the Titans’ “top question marks” and wrote that Sankey and McCluster will probably figure more into the offense, although I don’t see McCluster as a rushing threat.
Under the previous coaching staff, Chris Johnson had the sixth most carries in the league last season. There’s no signs yet of what kind of an offense Ken Wisenhunt might want to run in Tennessee, but even if they aren’t a run-heavy team, Sankey could end up being one of the few true No. 1 rushing options in the league, which always leads to fantasy value.
The Titans don’t have much of a passing threat with Jake Locker’s injury history and an overall lack of talent at the receiver position, so expect Sankey to be a big player in this offense.
2. Joique Bell, Detroit Lions
By the end of last season, Bell and Reggie Bush were basically splitting time in the Lions’ offense 50-50. After Detroit’s Week 9 bye week, they averaged the same number of fantasy points per game (10.2), and Bush had just 11 more targets in the passing game than Bell, according to our premium stats (paid subscription required).
They both had their fair share of dud games (in games that he played, Bush had six single-digit fantasy point games and Bell had nine). Expect this 50-50 split to continue all season rather than for just one half of the year. Bell had a stretch last season of five games with seven or fewer carries (Weeks 4 – 8), and that stretch likely won’t exist this season.
With a new coaching staff taking over with no particular attachment to either player, I expect Bush to take on a role similar to the one he had in New Orleans as a versatile back in certain packages. Bell is the more prototypical running back, who can also catch the ball out of the backfield.
FantasyPros has Bush ranked nine spots ahead of Bell among running backs, but the gap won’t be that large by the end of the season.
1. Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
Everyone knows that Ellington will be the top option in Arizona’s offense now that Rashard Mendenhall has retired, but I think people are underestimating how good of a season Ellington can have. I’m a big believer in his talent alone, but now with Mendenhall out of the picture, the opportunity is there now more than ever.
Mendenhall and Ellington had the exact same fantasy point total (115 each), and if combined, would have finished last season as the fourth best fantasy running back. Obviously Ellington won’t just absorb Mendenhall’s touches, so expecting him to carry the ball over 300 times is unrealistic.
But the Cardinals have a great offensive line that can open up holes for Ellington, and he was targeted in the passing game 57 times last year. Even with his declining talent, Mendenhall had five double-digit fantasy point games last year in Arizona and Ellington had five as well while carrying the ball 99 times less than Mendenhall.
Don’t be surprised if by this time next year we’re talking about Ellington as one of the 10 best fantasy backs in the league.