AFC South Week 4 Preview

By Brian Cox on Saturday, September 27th 2014
AFC South Week 4 Preview

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 1PM ET

The Tennessee Titans are coming off two bad losses while the Indianapolis Colts are coming into this game from a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, everyone expected the Colts to win that game but it was what’s called a “get-right game” for the Colts. It was a chance for the Colts to get their confidence up, timing right, and get everything moving on all cylinders after starting the season 0-2.

A major story for this game is Titans quarterback Jake Locker is unlikely to play on Sunday. This means that Charlie Whitehurst will be getting the start in place of Locker. Assuming Whitehurst gets the nod, the Titans will focus on short to intermediate routes and focus on getting Whitehurst’s timing down early. Luckily for the Titans the Colts’ secondary is far from spectacular.

The Colts, as always, are going to rely heavily on their quarterback, Andrew Luck. Everyone has been saying that the Colts’ offensive line is dreadful, but they’re not as bad as everyone thinks they are. According to PFF (subscription) they have the top rated pass blocking line through the first three weeks. This will be put to the test on Sunday because the Titans have the third ranked pass rush grade as well.

This is a division game and absolutely anything can happen in division games but I think the Colts win big in this one. They’re a better football team from top to bottom and even if the Titans have Locker (who hasn’t been playing well at all so far this season) behind center on Sunday I just don’t see the Titans winning. And if Whitehurst gets the start it’s going to be that much harder for the Titans to go into Indianapolis on Sunday and beat the Colts.

 

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, Sunday 1PM ET

This is somewhat of an unexpected matchup in that no one expected this to be a matchup of 2-1 teams. Both teams are coming off losses in which they got embarrassed a little and both will be looking to make everyone forget all about those loses.

The most important aspect of this game is the play of Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel. The Bills have a much better roster than most people realize and the one thing still holding them back is the play of their quarterback. This week Manuel won’t have an easy task when he goes up against the secondary with the third highest pass coverage PFF grade. Not only that but he’ll have stud defensive lineman J.J. Watt breathing down his neck almost the entire game. And after New York Giants offensive lineman Justin Pugh called Watt and the rest of the Texans defense out for quitting at the end of the game, you better believe they’re going to be playing with something to prove.

As far as the Texans’ offense goes, extra pressure will be put on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick because starting running back Arian Foster will probably be out for the game. As for the Bills’ running game, they rank seventh in the league in PFF rushing grade and the Texans rank fourth from the bottom in run defense. The Giants beat Houston a pretty bad loss last week by running all over them and if the Bills want to win that’s what they’re going to have to do.

This game will most likely be fairly close. However, I don’t expect the Bills to come away with the victory. The Texans will win this game by about a field goal and maintain their status atop the division.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers, Sunday 4:05PM ET

This game seems like quite a mismatch just looking at first glance. And in a lot of ways it is. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars have one advantage coming into the game on Sunday. That is rookie quarterback Blake Bortles making his first start.

This might not seem like much of an advantage when you first see it. Starting a rookie quarterback against the fourth best team in pass coverage behind an offensive line that’s in the bottom ten in pass blocking on the road. Seems like a recipe for disaster, right? But look at it this way: the San Diego Chargers have nothing to game plan against. There is no tape of Bortles in this offense. The Chargers won’t know Bortles’ tendencies nor with they know the coaches’ tendencies with Bortles in.

The Chargers are really going to earn their money in the pass game though. The Jaguars have the fourth worst pass coverage rating while the Chargers have the third best passing rating. Not to mention the Jaguars are having some major issues in their secondary. If Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers can have a good game against the Seattle Seahawks and that secondary, he’s going to carve up this secondary. Look for wide receiver Keenan Allen to get plenty of attention from Rivers.

I don’t expect this game to even be close. The Chargers are a better team from top to bottom. If this game isn’t over by halftime I’ll be surprised. As I stated earlier, the only chance the Jaguars have is with Blake Bortles catching the Chargers by surprise and really coming out of the gates hot.    

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